[WRnative]

<<From 1950 onward, the only two years with no named Atlantic storm in August (or even tropical depressions, for that matter) are 1961 and 1997. What’s interesting is that 1961 turned out to be a very back-loaded year, with three Cat 4s and two Cat 5s after September 1, so no reason to let our guard down on 2022 quite yet....


As for 1997, one of the three strongest El Niño events in the post-1950 record was in full swing by hurricane season of 1997, with an ONI of +2.1 in Aug-Sept-Oct. Given the suppressive effects of El Niño on Atlantic hurricane formation, it’s not too shocking that 1997 was a quiet year. However, we now have a strengthening La Niña event in place (NOAA reported on Monday that the most recent weekly ONI was -1.2), so the tranquil Atlantic of August 2022 is a more puzzling turn of events.


The lack of activity is certainly not the result of a lack of warm ocean waters. The hurricane main development region (MDR) in the tropical Atlantic is currently about 0.2 degree Celsius above average; the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are both about 0.4 degree above average.


The credit for the slow start to the season belongs instead to dry air and high wind shear. The central and eastern Atlantic have had an active series of tropical upper tropospheric troughs (TUTTs), which have created dry, stable air over much of the region where August tropical cyclones usually brew. The year so far also has featured an active summer for dry air coming off the coast of Africa. The two effects have led to a 10-15% drop in relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere in the central tropical Atlantic, compared to average, during the first 22 days of August (Figure 1). It is uncertain why we’ve been seeing so much dry, stable air in the central tropical Atlantic this month.>>


https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2...-0-for-august/



With no activity releasing the pent-up ocean energy, any breakthrough storm could be nasty.


<<

Warm sea waters are the most important ingredient for cyclone development, and while many things are to blame for the absence of storms, a lack of heat in the ocean is not one of them.



"Overall, waters in the Gulf of Mexico, southern Atlantic and the western Caribbean Sea are running 1-2 degrees F above normal," Sadvary said. "These anomalies get even larger farther north up the East Coast; some waters in the North Atlantic are 4-5 degrees F above normal."


Historically, the early part of September is the peak for tropical activity during the Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to Nov. 30. Tropical systems should have a better chance to form next month, Sadvary said, as ocean water temperatures will be approaching their maximum, and the Bermuda high, which typically dictates wind patterns over the Atlantic, should be in a more favorable setup for activity. >>


https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurri...-years/1235485

[MOforthewin]

Unless we get something in Oct, or a rare Nov hurricane like Kat, no.

World wide in general there has been a shortage of tropical cyclones this year. Actually, the 2021 season shutdown early as well.

One factor is possibly the eruption of volcano on Tonga I'm seeing thrown around. Released a lot of water vapor into the atmosphere that is disrupting the weather somehow. Western Pacific also having a very slow time as well.

Still doesn't explain the world wide slowdown late last year though since that was before the eruption.

[Travelassie]

Originally Posted by Lillie767

So- it looks as if we are going to end August without any major storms.

Before I celebrate, do you think that September will have all the accumulated storms we didn't have so far this year>

That's anybody's guess. As we remember from 1992, and Hurricane Andrew's destruction of southern Miami-Dade county, it only takes 1 storm like that to wreak havoc on those it hits.

I never start celebrating a no hurricane year till the end of November.

Wilma hit Florida on October 24, 2005, think it was.

[Corrie22]

right now they are being suppressed by African/Saharran dust....

there's a huge glob of it moving across right now.....then a break....where the orange X is at NHC.....then an even bigger glob of dust following that....the second glob coming off Africa right now is thick and huge

no model has anything hitting the US as far out as the middle of next month

[Charlie Allnut]

I'll throw this website link out there as a good source for current & near term predictions.
I have used it for years and it is pretty accurate in preducting storm paths.
So when the Hurricanes fire up soon and you get tired of looking at "cones of uncertainity", try this site
What I really like is I can zoom in to my street level for wind speed (avg or gusts) and direction predictions by the hour.
I also used it a lot for fishing trips.

Anyway, hope someone else finds it useful.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=25.2;-72.3;5&l=wind-10m


.

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by Charlie Allnut

I'll throw this website link out there as a good source for current & near term predictions.
I have used it for years and it is pretty accurate in preducting storm paths.
So when the Hurricanes fire up soon and you get tired of looking at "cones of uncertainity", try this site
What I really like is I can zoom in to my street level for wind speed (avg or gusts) and direction predictions by the hour.
I also used it a lot for fishing trips.

Anyway, hope someone else finds it useful.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=25.2;-72.3;5&l=wind-10m


.

ventusky is the best.....it uses the exact same blended GFS the NHC uses

and you're right....it's a big map....so you can visualize everything

[LKJ1988]

I am the best in jest and call it years ahead fred. I am ready for a stuck CAT3 Cane 80 miles offshore of me as i need 40"+ of rain to make up for 3 super dry years dears.

[Lillie767]

A lot of rain here yesterday, today, and expected tomorrow, with flood warnings.

But no hurricanes yet.

[1insider]

It's a good year when I don't have to dust off the hurricane shutters. Fingers still crossed. I remember 2004.

[Travelassie]

Originally Posted by 1insider

It's a good year when I don't have to dust off the hurricane shutters. Fingers still crossed. I remember 2004.

I think if you go ahead and dust off those hurricane shutters, that could ensure we don't get one this year. My fingers crossed too, but it's only September.