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1. The rental crisis on the east coast will be over by Christmas. That's not a guess it's a promise. Ringing around, there is an absolute avalanche of housing supply that will hit the market from late spring. Vacancies are already rising. Unbelievable that property is being bid up into that.
2. Following on from that, even with the stupid levels of immigration at the moment, rising vacancy rates and higher interest rates are going to sledgehammer a lot of outer suburban resi.
3. There are a lot of second tier lenders that heavily exposed to a lot of Covid borrowers on interest only loans. APRA, or Wayne Byers really, has been reasonably strict with the Big 4 and interest only loans (ie they don't exist in any significant way for the Big 4)...but go down to lenders below them.
4. The immigration tap will be turned off either before or after the next election. It's worth pointing out that whichever side had won last year this large intake was basically policy for both sides. Not any more. They both know they've overcooked the goose when they've made legal immigration a mainstream issue. When was the last time that was the case? The mid-90s?
5. The supply of new housing will continue into 2025. Likely that rents will fall in real terms if not nominal for a lot of outer metro areas in Sydney, Melbourne and, to a lesser extent, Brisbane.
To be honest i don't think immigration will slow down at all. Once the housing crisis is mostly dealt with by early next year then the biggest resistance to large scale immigration will be removed. I feel the immigration numbers were are now seeing will be the norm for foreseeable future
Immigration, especially by more conservative populations from SE Asia, may actually help both countries exit the jungle of ultra-woke orthodoxy and authoritarianism that has the majority of Aussies and Kiwis frozen, especially with regard to the insidious destruction of women's sex-based rights.
Until then, both countries are entangled in a cultural-political mess that will be viewed, hopefully very soon, as a dark period that was a bizarre, but short-lived aberation from classical western liberal values.
Well listening to the way many people in Australia are talking about limiting immigration numbers because of the housing crisis it appears that many believe they can have both their cake and eat it. The covid lock-down created the housing crisis that now exists by prohibing the intake of workers to build new housing which was approved in RECORD numbers. With Australia preventing workers from entering this country for almost 2 years who are the ones that could build these houses in a reliable time frame then then this has created a significant backlog which is about 8 months away from being mostly addressed. Thus the housing crisis has been created and now we have people silly enough to come out with the idea that limiting immigration will solve the housing crisis as if a SEVERE labor shortage doesn't exist. A shortage so severe that if it continues it means housing supply will never catch up with demand but hey... keep those pesky migrants out lol
Oh and let's forget about the fact that about a third of Australian homeowners own more than one home. That doesn't manipulate the market at all does it
To be honest i don't think immigration will slow down at all. Once the housing crisis is mostly dealt with by early next year then the biggest resistance to large scale immigration will be removed. I feel the immigration numbers were are now seeing will be the norm for foreseeable future
Well not exactly. Simply put, turbo immigration is not needed and is lowering living standards. Not sure why you are so convinced the building of mass apartments and town houses of debatable quality, will come even close to addressing long standing problems in this country. More likely result will be greater inequality, more tribal behaviour and severe crime issues.
Well listening to the way many people in Australia are talking about limiting immigration numbers because of the housing crisis it appears that many believe they can have both their cake and eat it. The covid lock-down created the housing crisis that now exists by prohibing the intake of workers to build new housing which was approved in RECORD numbers. With Australia preventing workers from entering this country for almost 2 years who are the ones that could build these houses in a reliable time frame then then this has created a significant backlog which is about 8 months away from being mostly addressed. Thus the housing crisis has been created and now we have people silly enough to come out with the idea that limiting immigration will solve the housing crisis as if a SEVERE labor shortage doesn't exist. A shortage so severe that if it continues it means housing supply will never catch up with demand but hey... keep those pesky migrants out lol
Oh and let's forget about the fact that about a third of Australian homeowners own more than one home. That doesn't manipulate the market at all does it
If un necessarily turbo migration hadn't occurred, there would be enough houses and the rental market would not be as stretched.
Not only building workers shortage, but medical, teachers and so on. More people means more pressure on all existing services.
Yes a return to normal immigration levels is what is needed. We call Australia a multi cultural country, but most migrants come in huge numbers from one of about four, perhaps five countries.
Well not exactly. Simply put, turbo immigration is not needed and is lowering living standards. Not sure why you are so convinced the building of mass apartments and town houses of debatable quality, will come even close to addressing long standing problems in this country. More likely result will be greater inequality, more tribal behaviour and severe crime issues.
Explain how immigration is lowering living standards. What data are you using? What industry is worse off due to immigration?
If un necessarily turbo migration hadn't occurred, there would be enough houses and the rental market would not be as stretched.
Not only building workers shortage, but medical, teachers and so on. More people means more pressure on all existing services.
Yes a return to normal immigration levels is what is needed. We call Australia a multi cultural country, but most migrants come in huge numbers from one of about four, perhaps five countries.
Where were the Migrants for the two years Australia's border was closed? Migrants are not even close to being the problem for the housing crisis. It's funny how you ignore the fact that 20% of the property market is actually investors. So they aren't the problem?
The reality is the government won't stop investors being enticed to swallow up property and they certainly won't stop bringing in the Migrants to grow the population of Australia. People need to realize Australia has always been destined to be "Big". People vote in governments that espouse these views for a reason. It won't change and Australia today has one of the best standard of living in the world for a reason. What would Australia be without the 35% of people who live here born overseas?
Explain how immigration is lowering living standards. What data are you using? What industry is worse off due to immigration?
Explain why with record immigration, only broken by the Covid halt has not addressed shortages? Record immigration has done and will do little to alleviate shortages until the migration actually needed is brought in. It is not a number thing (or shouldn't be) As mentioned get already landed people back in the work force to quell shortages.
As for data. How about the housing crisis? Rental Crisis? Hospital Crisis? But I admit certain less desirable areas of earning, although highly lucrative are prospering.
Explain how immigration is lowering living standards.
Immigration turboed at the start of the century. I'm sure this is just a coincidence.
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