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Only 3 times this year the max temp has been -12 below normal at the coast here (BDR)
September 23, 2023 (61° Max, 73° Avg)
April 29, 2023 (51° Max, 63° Avg)
Feb 25, 2023 (28° Max, 42° Avg)
We've had more than that, though not in September. The coldest max temps for September were 6F below on Sep 8 and Sep 13.
This is for Fergus Shand Dam
February 3, 2023 (2° Max, 25° Avg)
April 18, 2023 (36° Max, 51° Avg)
May 17, 2023 (52° Max, 64° Avg)
August 18, 2023 (62° Max, 75° Avg)
August 23, 2023 (61° Max, 74° Avg)
And while there was only one such day in the winter months of 2023, it was well well below normal (-23).
The cold front that day came in hard, and it came in during the morning and prevented temperatures from rising in the afternoon - the daily high was achieved during the first AM hour (I think either 1am or 2am is when Envt Canada counts the day as starting? anyways, the temperatures were warmest at midnight and cooling from thereon).
If you go with the last 365 days, you also have
October 18, 2023 (41° Max, 54° Avg)
October 20, 2023 (38° Max, 53° Avg)
November 15, 2023 (29° Max, 41° Avg)
November 19, 2023 (25° Max, 39° Avg)
November 20, 2023 (23° Max, 39° Avg)
December 23, 2023 (12° Max, 28° Avg)
If the forecast resolves, the average for this September will be 70.4F/50.5F, not too far below the average for last August of 73.0F/52.7F.
The forecast for late September has been trending up a bit, it was previously looking like it would rank 9th of the last 20 Septembers, but might come in warmer now. It's now looking like it will end up warmer than 2022, which had a very warm first 3 weeks, but cold finish.
October is starting to look like it will be above average too. Some of the models were predicting a cool October, but TWN's 14 day forecast is currently predicting the entire first week to be a 13.7F above average torch. I find TWN often overshoots a bit, but even 10F above average would be quite impressive, and something difficult to erase to result in a below average month.
Negative PNA keeping the west cool and the Midwest torchy. East is rain cooled for first few days of the forecast but then the warmth comes there too. Warm end to September and beginning of October
Highs in the upper 80s through Wednesday, then mid-80s from then on to at least October 2. Summer hangs on, or as I like to call it when highs are averaging in the lower or mid-80s, "flummer".
Averaging less than half our long term average for rain though for September, 1.39" vs 2.90" (through the 23rd). I just want some rain.
Looking like a chilly end to September here. It seems pretty common for a tropical system to essentially end summer here and that's just what this one did. While the big heat of early September already ended about 2 weeks ago, it at least had mostly stayed near 80 until Ophelia hit this weekend.
But now we're getting the type of weather I would normally associate more with mid to late October. Today will be the 11th below average day in a row here, after 13 straight above average days in the 1st half of the month. Depending on just how chilly the next few days turn out, September may end up being close to the averages in spite of the heat wave earlier in the month.
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