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I never can remember, which one of these has the better track record?
Not sure about the other but the old farmers almanac one claims 80% correct on average. Last yr was 83%. But read last sentence in 1st paragraph. 1 month can change a whole seasons average.
Don’t worry Cambium, the winter of 2018-2019 will in all probability be a memorable winter season for many people in your neck of the woods. I expect that your region of the United States could well be pounded by frequent nor’easters this season, I am almost sure that by the end of January you will be saying “Enough Already!!!”
Windflow don't mean high winds tim. Just means a displaced summer time ridge over the last 35 years from our normal summer time ridge we had when the axis was north of Tampa in the 50's thru the 70's. Living on the gulf like i do means i miss out on the rain vs anyone 2 miles or more inland from me. Most days in the summer the wind is dead calm.
I think this winter will have a strong western atlantic ridge with the cold shoved west of the app mountains... not in agreeance with bastardi at all. Those warm ssts off the coast really favor ridging so those -5 temp anomalies he is forecasting for parts of the southeast don't really jibe well imo with what we have been seeing so far. It would take a large pattern reversal and complete cooling of those ssts or I think we will keep seeing big warmups in the winter. I do believe the cold will be pouring down into the Midwest and moving eastwards just not on the departures this man is forecasting... it takes guts to forecast a record warm winter in the nw and record cold on in the southeast.... a man of extremes he is. Maybe this winter will see those wet warmups with cold fronts on their heels type stuff.
I think this winter will have a strong western atlantic ridge with the cold shoved west of the app mountains... not in agreeance with bastardi at all. Those warm ssts off the coast really favor ridging so those -5 temp anomalies he is forecasting for parts of the southeast don't really jibe well imo with what we have been seeing so far. It would take a large pattern reversal and complete cooling of those ssts or I think we will keep seeing big warmups in the winter. I do believe the cold will be pouring down into the Midwest and moving eastwards just not on the departures this man is forecasting... it takes guts to forecast a record warm winter in the nw and record cold on in the southeast.... a man of extremes he is. Maybe this winter will see those wet warmups with cold fronts on their heels type stuff.
If the ridging in the north Pacific and the western parts of the country is strong enough that can easily overwhelm warm East Coast seawater; hypothetically speaking, it just depends on which effect is stronger.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
but its Warm & Wet for you with the Old Farmers Almanac prediction. lol.
There's "The Old Farmers Almanac" and theres "The Farmers Almanac".
Here is both their 2018-19 Winter Predictions
Interesting that they have polar opposite predictions this year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge
He cheers for cold, but this time the Euro, and JMA support him. CFSv2 might be coming around as its latest runs call for a cold east and south (unlike the widespread blowtorch it was spitting out a couple weeks ago).
Those analogs look like they were Modoki years too.
Meh. Bastardi has about as much chance as anyone else at being correct, and quite a few of his blockbuster winter predictions this decade have proven accurate. Some of course have not been so accurate, so we'll see.
If the ridging in the north Pacific and the western parts of the country is strong enough that can easily overwhelm warm East Coast seawater; hypothetically speaking, it just depends on which effect is stronger.
Interesting that they have polar opposite predictions this year.
Meh. Bastardi has about as much chance as anyone else at being correct, and quite a few of his blockbuster winter predictions this decade have proven accurate. Some of course have not been so accurate, so we'll see.
Yeah but even then... I don’t see wall to wall cold that ridge is goin to flex it’s muscle. Especially early on in December. That’s why I don’t necessarily believe such deep anomalies because that requires 0 warmups... that’s unlikely given conditions. I can certainly believe the cold tho.
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