Winter Thread 2015-16 (Northern Hemisphere) (snow, average, Chicago, places) - Weather -Temperature, sun, sunlight, rain, hurricanes, tornadoes, climate, forecasts, humidity, heat, snow... - Page 53 - City-Data Forum

Cambium · 10-13-2015, 06:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SFX

You can see the snow anomaly in the Rutgers image. Huge snowfall in eastern Canada. Most unusual.

Last and only time (in that record) seems to be in 2009

2009 according to GISS was a very cool October for North America.

Yup and if the pattern supports continued snowpack the air will get colder and colder for us in the Northeast when that Polar Jet dips down.

Check this out!!

Not only above normal with Ice cover on Hudson Bay, Not only more than last year... but its the 3rd most ice cover for the period to Oct 8th.

Product - Product Search - Canadian Ice Service

And more ice is forming this week from the frigid air over it. Should see a rapid build up, then Euro has a storm crossing it next week which would warm temps to near freezing. Hmmm, don't forget what a fresh snowpack on ice does.

SFX · 10-13-2015, 06:27 AM

I read some solar physics, have for years now. A few of them predicted this would happen, way back in 2005. They theorize the amount of high energy UV from the sun has a large effect on the upper atmosphere, including ozone levels, and that a quiet sun leads to colder NH winters, as well as an increase in snowfall.

That's crazy talk.

Cambium · 10-14-2015, 12:10 PM

Check out Paulie P's blog today. Good one regarding Siberia's/Eurasia's Snow cover.
One thing I don't understand with Dr Cohen's chart.. Polar Vortex "weakens" with more Siberia snow? Maybe that is implying it weakens at the Pole and disrupts it so it moves or splits off and heads to Europe, Asia, or North America, ect.?

"Speaking of negative AO and Dr. Cohen's research, it is time that we look at the Eurasia snow extent and the rate of increase. The idea that there is a correlation between increase in snowpack across Eurasia can have an impact on the phase of the Arctic Oscillation mid to late winter. But keep in mind, that even with a negative AO in the heart of the winter season, that does not mean that all the cold comes into North America. It can get elsewhere, although this has been the region the past two years. Also, this year is a different ball game with an impressive El Nino on tap. This can disrupt or shun at times the cold shots that head south.

However, here is the schedule created by Dr. Cohen for this whole process. "

"So what column are we heading into here. Well, take a look at the SAI index created to show the slope of the snow extent in Eurasia. This shows a good start here in October, but it may stray just below from last year but still good. That would place us in the in the right column."

"If you compared last year to this year, clearly there was more coverage at this time last year across Asia and Eurasia compared to this year, but the data for this comparison is used mainly north of 60 degrees north. So forget about southern areas. Therefore when you add it up, it is not very far from last year's snowcover at this time."

"The winter will be a battle between PDO and SIberian correlation to a negative AO vs the strongest El Nino we have seen in years. Will El Nino dominate over two modest opponents to bring a very interesting second half of the winter? Think of it as one big, bad tough guy being jumped by two weaker opponents. Who will win?

One other thing to keep in mind, the QBO has gone into a positive phase and solar phase combined do not favor blocking and negative AO periods, but we have low sea ice in areas that are watched carefully. This can lead to more blocking. So there are so many ways that this winter may go come February. The reason why we have brought up scenarios and left this month going either way in the East. "