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Models are already honing in on that colder weather. The above graphic again shows 500mb geopotential height anomalies, but this time over the United States and valid on March 18th. Here, we see prevalent ridging over the western half of the country, leading to pleasant conditions in the Rockies and Plains. However, a deep upper level low is forecast to traverse the Northeast and southern Canada, as the deep blues show. This means cold weather, possibly bringing about snowfall in the process for some. To summarize: - A generally stormy and cool pattern is expected for the second-to-last week or so of March, primarily around March 18-24.
It hit 76 today, with a dew point of 60. While not really that hot and humid, it felt quite uncomfortable if I wanted to do much exercise at all. I wouldn't mind the warmth as much in May, but I did just get 4" of snow only 2 weeks ago, so my body is still adapted to cold weather.
With the cold returning to the northeast, I wonder if Boston will break it's all time maximum snowfall record of 107.6" since it only has 2" to go.
In other news, I discovered that Boston's all time minimum seasonal snowfall of 9" would rank in the top third of winters for snowfall for my area.
Snow depth at Islip hit 0 inches today, for the first time since Jan 23 (if i'm not mistaken). Probably the second longest stretch of nonzero snow depth there.
Near my home there are some patchy areas of grass visible, but on average there is still a 3 inch snow cover (approximately).
Bridgeport still has 9 inches today. Wow!
A streak of 1" or more of snow depth at Islip ran from 27 Jan thru yesterday (10 Mar). Just a trace this morning. That makes for a run of 43 days, now the longest stretch, beating 33 days beginning on 12 Jan and ending 13 Feb 2011.
Central Park's stretch has been running since 24 Jan, even after accounting for the dubious snow depth measurements (8" straight despite melting and no snow?! ) there in February. Reported 6" this morning; entirely possible that it melted to trace or 0 during today's warmth, but that's still a 47-day streak. This is now the 5th or 4th-longest. The first entry shouldn't surprise any of you here:
Today about 13-14C in Chicago. Up to 24C in South Dakota/Northwest Iowa. Even up to 17C in Northern Wyoming and by the Canadian border.
Tomorrow we could reach 18-19C
Saturday we will have winds off the lake, which will drop temps to around 9-10C
Euro model claims around 20C for March 17th here, up to 29C in Kansas and Oklahoma.
Quote:
Colder pattern setting up beyond Monday next week over much of the 8 to 15-day time frame; hardly as frigid of earlier blasts this cold season, but cold nonetheless
The jet stream, which has flattened into a “zonal” or “westerly” configuration allowing the warming we’ve experienced in recent days, is to “re-amplify” (i.e. become “wavy”) again next week. This sends cold late season air spilling back into the Midwest. While nowhere near as cold as the blasts we’ve endured earlier in the current cold season, the pattern is one to monitor. Storm systems can spin up in colder regimes like the one being predicted and we’re hardly far enough along in the meteorological spring system that we can definitively or totally rule out wintry forms of precip–whether snow or a wintry mix.
Just thought I show this after all the "forecasts are wrong" threads are coming up.
This is just 1 example.. You have the latest GFS on left. Euro on right. Lets focus on 2 areas. This is total cloud cover for Friday 8pm.
GFS says its cloudy over Minnesota, clear over NJ.
Euro says its clear over Minnesota, cloudy over NJ.
All depends how fast it moves in or out. But just showing how there will always be a slightly different scenarios. and forecasts just go by whats being shown. A blend of them all. This is just 2 models.
I'm curious what the forecasts are showing for the circled areas and what they have for clouds or temps.
SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWING THRU THE AREA EARLY ON FRI...RESULTING
IN NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND DROPS OFF
NOTICEABLY OVER NORTHERN MN GOING SOUTHWESTWARD
very windy this morning. Never went below freezing overnight. I think a cold air mass just below in; dew point dropped to 14°F and the sky is very clear.
Thu: 13-16C for most of Chicagoland, but only 5-7C along the lakeshore
Fri: 16-18C
Sat: 11-14C for most, while 7-9C along the lake
Sun: 12-15C for most, 7-10C along the lake
Mon: 18-19C, with 20-21C possible.
^^
And then back to below normal temps...
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) there in February. Reported 6" this morning; entirely possible that it melted to trace or 0 during today's warmth, but that's still a 47-day streak. This is now the 5th or 4th-longest. The first entry shouldn't surprise any of you here:
