band of rain and thunderstorms out to the west. A few pop-up thunderstorms in eastern upstate NY:
Chance it will reach us, but as the discussion says, better dynamics are to the north and west. Thunderstorms often die as they reach New England.
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +16C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL
BE FOUND IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND MERRIMACK VALLEY...WHERE
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S. MEANWHILE...SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE COOL OCEAN WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S AND THE 70S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. GOOD MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT
25 TO 35 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH OUR
WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN DEWPOINTS
OVER 60 DEGREES...CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL
DEVELOP ALONG WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY WEAK WHICH WILL LIMIT UPDRAFTS TO
SOME DEGREE AND THE PEAK TIME OF THE ACTIVITY IS A BIT LATER THAN WE
LIKE TO SEE...BETWEEN 4 AND 10 PM. ALSO...BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
SO ALL IN ALL...IT LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS A
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIGGEST
THREAT WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
HAIL A SECONDARY CONCERN.
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