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That...is...cool... Keep us posted! Always cool how far back we been keep track of sun spots. I can just picture them way back in the past with telescopes waiting to see those spots..
Check it out! The sun has been blank for 61% this year!
Been looking at the sun since 1976 and it has never been this dead. I just ordered another Lunt 50mm solar scope as they were at a blow out price at $499 with a 400 blocking filter. I have a Lunt 60mm coming also with a 1200 blocking filter.
Think the Sun doesn't play a role in our weather patterns? If you guys get a chance, look at the QBO & Sun correlation. QBO are the winds in the stratosphere.
"One thing to note is, the QBO finally came in negative down to 50mb. Once QBO is negative it takes a while, it stays in that phase for a long time. Support of that is low solar activity. We can see some blocking trying to return again next winter. Question mark, is it early, or is it late? What I'm seeing on the modeling is a positive NAO, stronger Arctic High aloft which means theres too much westerlies coming across Canada that's not a cold, we known history last few yrs that if its westerly its gonna be hot, its gonna be warmer warmer than normal and exceed pretty high so we'll have to keep those departures up in these areas which we have for November & December right now. But January still iffy, but we do feel that with Negative QBO, Low Solar, and El Nino with the strong southern track features that maybe by mid-late winter we got some big systems to watch out for, big blocking events, could be some big coastals.. That's something way off but I just wanted kinda throw that out to you today"
Quote:
One of my team members, Bob Smerbeck, does a lot of research into the QBO, winds across the stratosphere looking at speed and direction. A negative QBO in a similar phase of low solar angle can lead to blocking and possible bigger storms and stronger cold pushes in the winter season. The critical level is getting a negative QBO down to the lower stratosphere, 50 MB. It has finally happened this year. A phase of the QBO can last several months, so we do expect the QBO to remain negative in the lower stratosphere through the winter.
Here are some notes that Bob discovered...
"The QBO has finally flipped to easterly/negative at 50 MB in May thanks to another easterly downward surge last month. It has also flipped to the west/positive at 10 MB and this looks to be more consistent than the westerly false alarm we had last December.
Looking ahead with no surprises from below, the easterly/negative QBO at 50 MB should continue through the summer and fall for any teleconnections that use the 50 MB level. The westerly shift downward is faster and smoother than the easterly phase due to the sinking air beneath a westerly QBO.
Going back 13 QBO cycles to 1987, the average time for the westerly/positive QBO to sink from 10 MB to 30 MB was 7 months and to reach 50 MB it was 10 months. Using these trends, the westerly/positive QBO should reach 30 MB in November in and 50 MB in February. "
Current solar cycle 24 is declining more quickly than forecast. The smoothed, predicted sunspot number for April to May, 2018 is about 15; however, the actual monthly values have been lower. Will solar minimum be longer than usual or might solar cycle 25 begin earlier? Leading solar and space science experts will convene a meeting in the coming years and attempt to predict solar cycle 25.
I got that NOAA story link above with this link. Plethora of info and graphs here. Wow. I don't understand much of it and haven't read it all but glance through it.
I found this to be interesting..
"Figure 6 below. Comparison of the present solar minimum (in red) to the group with fast (short) solar minima.
The present solar minimum does not belong to the group characterized by short solar minima. The sunspot number is falling too abruptly, and the solar minimum should have been hit by December 2017 to belong to the group. As of June (corresponding to January 2018 smoothed data) the smoothed sunspot number is still decreasing and given the evolution it will decrease again next month."
"Figure 7 below. Comparison of the present solar minimum (in red) to the group with medium speed solar minima.
The present solar minimum could belong to the medium group. This group includes solar cycle minima from the Dalton and Gleissberg extended minima, but also the unusual 1986 SC21-22 minimum. If SC24-25 belongs to this group the minimum should take place between May 2018 and September 2019. For that to happen the decrease in sunspots should slow down soon, since the chance that its smoothed value hits zero or near-zero is quite low, as only one of the seven (SC6-7) in this group did so."
Kind of makes me wonder whether the quiet sun will translate into the Midwest becoming subarctic during the winter or even just flat out subarctic year round
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The sun has been blank for 61% this year! 
