Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
So on one hand you agree it has a role, on the other you can't see the correlation.
During that 10 year period, that I posted above? No, I don't see a correlation. Over a longer period like the Little Ice Age? Yes I do see a correlation.
In this lecture Alley shows a chart during the Little Ice Age period which coincided with a double whammy of low sun spots and high volcanic activity (4 min in)
We will never see a 100% exact correlation. Look at the whole picture.
You've taken on a different approach to things lately. Not sure if you're reading the wrong things or just your opinion changed because something happened, but I remember it being different before recently.
Between the PDO and now this. We both can find things that support our opinion, I get that, (it gets old after time) but if you think the Sun doesn't affect weather & climate on Earth that's crazy. It doesn't take a genius to see what the long term effect is.. Just look at the graph. We're still in Modern Maxima, hence all the hot years recently
But you cant say "hey look, the sun is quiet, its gonna be cold tomorrow" It doesn't work like that.
Just been reading and watching lectures from very intelligent people such as climate scientist Dr. Richard Alley.
Also understand Urban Heat Islands and "local" warming is different now. We didn't have Jumbo airplanes and blacktop in the 1800s. So you have to factor that in as well...or at least remember it.
I do, and that can help explain some of the warming over populated areas, but the greatest warming is occurring over the Arctic, and on Eurasia (Siberia) where there is no UHI.
Quote:
I think it's fascinating , I always loved Science , but I don't think we should go back and forth and try to prove one theory or another. There's still a ton of work and research to be done.. I myself will stick to NASA with the info and charts provided.. I know there's more to learn!
So do I. However you won't find any Academic Science body (also NASA), that doesn't support the theory that GHG's are the driving force in the current warming.
The Sunspot Number, the longest scientific experiment still ongoing, is a crucial tool used to study the solar dynamo, space weather and climate change. It has now been recalibrated and shows a consistent history of solar activity over the past few centuries. The new record has no significant long-term upward trend in solar activity since 1700, as was previously indicated. This suggests that rising global temperatures since the industrial revolution cannot be attributed to increased solar activity.
The analysis, its results and its implications for climate research were made public on 7 August at a press briefing at the International Astronomical Union (IAU) XXIX General Assembly, currently taking place in Honolulu, Hawai`i, USA.
The Maunder Minimum, between 1645 and 1715, when sunspots were scarce and the winters harsh, strongly suggests a link between solar activity and climate change. Until now there was a general consensus that solar activity has been trending upwards over the past 300 years (since the end of the Maunder Minimum), peaking in the late 20th century — called the Modern Grand Maximum by some.
"Good evening. Attached is a look at the visible solar disk as we head into Monday. The disk remains blank for the 3rd day in a row. One of the main indicators of solar activity output, the 10.7cm radio flux (solar flux), stands at 79. More quiet is to be expected during the next few days.
In other news, the solar wind remains elevated above 500 km/s. Periods of minor (G1) geomagnetic storming could persist during the next 12 hours at higher latitudes. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest spaceweather data and imagery."
While they got the prediction of the peak wrong... (actual was much lower than they thought) I find it so fascinating that they can predict the ups and downs of the Suns activity and cycles. It's like we can guarantee its on a downturn and heading for minimum "in this cycle"..
" Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs [see Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann Solar Physics; 151, 177 (1994)]). Prior to that time the predictions are less reliable but nonetheless equally as important. Planning for satellite orbits and space missions often require knowledge of solar activity levels years in advance.
A number of techniques are used to predict the amplitude of a cycle during the time near and before sunspot minimum. Relationships have been found between the size of the next cycle maximum and the length of the previous cycle, the level of activity at sunspot minimum, and the size of the previous cycle."
A sunspot connection?
And this is where Sirocko and colleagues come in. Last winter, while the unusually cold weather fed Elfstedentocht fever throughout the Netherlands (but, alas, to no avail), the researchers began thinking about the fact that the cold weather waas occuring at the same time as a deep minimum in sunspot activity.* Was that, the researchers wondered, simply a coincidence or could the sunspot minima be a trigger for cold winters in Europe?
To answer that question the researchers attempted to see if there was a correlation between the Rhine freezing over (as a proxy for “cold” winters) and sunspot activity over the past 230 years. The authors chose the freezing of the Rhine as their proxy because, given the long use of the river for shipping and transport, it is a well-documented event as well as a simple one to document.
The results of their analysis are pretty striking. Over the last 230 years there have been 14 “freezes,” and 10 of them have occurred in years near solar minima. Statistically the researchers found that there was only a one percent probability that the correlation was a random coincidence. The authors speculate that the connection between sunspots and cold European winters is being driven by the following mechanisms:
Low sunspot activity,
Lower influx of energetic particles and ultraviolet rays from the Sun and
Lower stratospheric temperatures propagated down into the troposphere, triggering a shift in the circulation patterns in the North Atlantic and regional weather in Europe, such that cold air flows from the Arctic and Scandinavia towards central Europe, leading to colder temps over parts of central Europe.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
