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Just because there's blue in the East I still hate these maps. They have been wrong SOOOOOO Many times especially during their red coloring hiatus. LOL but it is nice to finally see a different color past few months.
They're probabilties, so they're saying they expect to be wrong a high % of the time. If I had time to kill, it'd be interesting to see how well these maps have done. Perhaps someone has already done that. I don't really believe them, or at least find them useful myself. Yet I still look at them.
Sometimes the maps did predict what happened, but then it was obvious (like warmth and dryness for California this winter, and cold for much of the middle and eastern US)
They're probabilties, so they're saying they expect to be wrong a high % of the time.
Not sure if there's a typo in there or I don't understand that comment. It's a probability map of above/below normal temps. There's an 80-90% chance of below normal temps in the south. We're under 50% chance.
What I meant was for us, it's a 60% chance of not below normal. It's a bit hard to judge whether such a forecast came true or not, unless you look through dozens and see the percentages.
What I meant was for us, it's a 60% chance of not below normal. It's a bit hard to judge whether such a forecast came true or not, unless you look through dozens and see the percentages.
Actually reverse that.. if you look closer we're 55-60% chance of getting below normal temps.
There's an archive for their maps. Feel free to do the work and look back at them and compare to actual temp departure for that period. Have fun. lol We're all waiting for some results.
Forecast says "Areas Frost" tonight. First time I've seen that the whole spring. Earlier, there was nothing growing so frost wasn't even mentioned. Still no "frost warning", too early in the growing season.
I saw some clouds in the distance earlier, but now they have disappeared. Or at least they weren't many enough to justify an octa. Clouds expected in the morning, though.
Forecast says "Areas Frost" tonight. First time I've seen that the whole spring. Earlier, there was nothing growing so frost wasn't even mentioned. Still no "frost warning", too early in the growing season.
Freeze Warning here tonight. First of the season I think.
Forecast says "Areas Frost" tonight. First time I've seen that the whole spring. Earlier, there was nothing growing so frost wasn't even mentioned. Still no "frost warning", too early in the growing season.
I wasn't impressed by the freeze warning here until I started looking into it. It's not that common to see freezing temps this late I guess. Normal low is mid 40s here now.
Here's a graph I made showing how many times BDR(Bridgeport, CT) dropped below 36°F after April 24th. NWS Forecast calling for 35 there tonight. Last time it happened was 2002....Before 2002 you have to go back to 1974!!
After April 24th this is how many times they've hit 40F or lower.
2012: 2
2010: 1
2005: 2
2004: 1
2002: 2
So it seems common to hit 40F this late but obviously not many times at all or every year for that matter.
Lets see how low they actually go.
38 would be a more impressive number to hit. Only 6 times since 1979 that low this late.
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