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Layer aloft controls the surface temps majority of the time. Not for exacts like 61°F or 65F but an overall warm/cool/seasonable flow of things and an idea of what the temps will be at the surface
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
508 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON AFTERNOON 850MB TEMP FCST THINKING MID TO UPPER 60S IS STILL PROBABLE FOR NE NJ AND PARTS OF THE CITY AND 60 TO 65 FOR MOST OTHER SPOTS. THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SE CT AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND PROBABLY GET STUCK IN THE UPPER 50S.
Unlike Florida though, the sun does not reappear after our summer storms, as it usually happens at sunset. So, once the clouds clear its typically dark already and starts cooling down. In the coast, it was 91 & 68. For us, it was more like 95 & 63 that day.
Nice storm, looks very much like the shelf cloud in Daytona Beach
The sun does not always come out again after our storms either. Here's how it looks at 6pm (says in description) after the rain has passed offshore:
We hit 450" (1143 cm) of snow this morning, with 3" (7 cm) overnight. The next 7 days look very spring-like and we're likely to hit 40 F/4 C for the first time since September. Only one day of snow in the 10-day forecast. I hate to see winter come to an end. We'll still have snow for quite some time with 146" (370 cm) current depth, but I think I have summer SAD, and my dogs hate warm weather.
45°F. Thunderstorm/Rain. We don't get them in the morning often.
THE WARM FRONT WAS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRIGGERING TSTMS.
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