Winter 2013-14 Thread — Northern Hemisphere (days, storm, humidity, USA)

[Cambium]

With the current Tropical season underway one wonders the correlation between that and winter.

Everything is alll tied together. But more than one card is needed, remember. Here's Steve DiMartino Tid Bit explaining how the Tropical season plays a role.


"Well, the idea behind an active hurricane season in the Atlantic and a snowy winter for the East coast is based on the transport of heat from the Tropical Atlantic to the higher latitudes. This theory is based on the idea of tropical low pressure systems moving around the western Atlantic ridge into the northern Atlantic that transport heat. This heat transport enhances a natural thermal gradient between the northern Atlantic and northeastern Canada/Greenland which leads to more storms to develops. The more extratropical storm development, the stronger the negative NAO signal and thus the higher threat for stormy weather conditions along the East coast.


There are of course aspects here that need to be warned about with this theory. First of all, while a transport of tropical air into the northern Atlantic clearly enhances thermal gradients over the northwestern Atlantic, there is no forcing mechanism to suggest the negative NAO pattern (trough in the northern ATlantic and ridge over Greenland) has to be west based (trough or upper low around 50N/50W) or east based (50 N/70-80 W or near Iceland). Next, we have to consider that other factors like a strong Pacific jet stream due to a changing ENSO state could completely override this negative NAO signal. Another factor is that the sun becomes very active thus leading to a cold stratosphere, a positive QBO signal, and thus a progressive jet stream which again would override the negative NAO signal"

[cloudcrash619]

I hope next winter is like 1959-1960, we had our 5th snowiest winter on record with 20.5 inches (which is a lot for here.) Then again, all 2003-2004 had was .2 inch.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by cloudcrash619

I hope next winter is like 1959-1960, we had our 5th snowiest winter on record with 20.5 inches (which is a lot for here.) Then again, all 2003-2004 had was .2 inch.

I love posts like this because I like to look back and see why and what caused the big difference. Without posts like this from members all over we dont know this stuff, unless we look it up directly. Keep em coming.

I'll try to look into it soon. I'm curious.

I had a normal year in 1959-60 but Richmond Virginia had almost 3 feet of snow. So something tells me the Jet was more often supressed further south then usual that winter.

2003-04 Richmond Virginia just had 6 inches meanwhile I had 4 feet (well above normal).

[CountryFisher]

I hope this'll be a cold winter. We need it.

[wawa1992]

I hope we get a snowier than average, cold winter. Average January high and low where I live is 44 F / 24 F so something like 39 / 19 would be nice, with 2-3 times the snow of an average year. An average year here gets about a foot so 2-3 feet would be awesome.

[Infamous92]

Originally Posted by Weatherfan7

All I can say is I hope each winter month is a solid 3°C milder than average.

Agreed.

[B87]

November 1994
December 2011
January 2007
February 1998
March 2012

Would be ideal to make up for the rubbish weather in general in recent years.

[Humid Subtropical]

I hope we get above average temps with plenty of blizzards and storms. From Nemo last winter:

[Cambium]

Latest CFS forecast for Dec-Jan-Feb mean temp departure

[Patricius Maximus]

Originally Posted by P London

All I can say is I hope each winter is a solid 3c cooler than average.

How about 10C?

Originally Posted by cloudcrash619

I hope next winter is like 1959-1960, we had our 5th snowiest winter on record with 20.5 inches (which is a lot for here.) Then again, all 2003-2004 had was .2 inch.

Didn't most of the snow in 1960 come in March? I recall that March 1960 was the coldest/snowiest March on record in the South, or at least in the Carolinas.