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I sure hope that we get more snow and colder weather here in Missouri. I have told my husband that he may have to start looking for a job in Alaska.
My family thinks I am crazy for wanting cold weather and snow but I just do not like the heat. I have never lived anywhere where there was a white Christmas. All those stupid Christmas songs were obviously not written by someone who lived in the South.
I am looking forward to shoveling our driveway this winter. At least I hope I get that opportunity.
It's interesting to see the different forecasts, hunches, and pieces of the puzzle for Winter 2014. At this time I'm more focused on what the second half of fall will bring in terms of early snows and the like, but I like to check in here to see how the heart of the season might progress. Keep it coming.
Awesome discussion by Steve D. He's been hounding on those who issued winter forecasts already calling them just plain idiotic. Steve waits until October to do it.
"The current pattern is a clearly negative EPO and negative AO pattern which would suggest a rather chilly set up in the East. If you take this forecast out to the winter, I'm sure there are many who would get very excited. However, there is a problem here. That pesky upper level low off the West coast throws the wave lengths all off over the United States.
This upper level low is cut off from the Polar jet stream overall but forces the ridge over the western United States more towards the Plains and thus forces the trough axis right along the East coast.
All you need is one pesky misplaced upper level low off the West Coast to throw the whole pattern out of alignment leading to a cold and dry weather pattern and rather disgruntle snow lovers and snow removal clients.
The point I am making this morning is that we need patience here. There are a lot of favorable signals showing up for an active winter, that is true. Of course, there were plenty of positive signals last year but the attributes that would support an active winter pattern never came together properly until very late in the season. . "
Bottom line, he's saying the Upper Level low on the West coast can cause the ridge/trough shift which would lead to a drier pattern for the East, not stormy.
I remember this well and its getting interesting now.
Joe Bastardi in Sept 2010 used the ENSO theory and the Volcanic theory and showed how winters were few years after an event. Big volcano went off in 2010.
He says winter of 2012-13, 2013-14, & 2014-15 watch how the winters are and they get worse with the next.. He says either we will laugh at him or say holy moly this guy did his research. I wouldn't laugh just yet and I wonder if Europes brutal winter counts. Truth is, the stratosphere warmed that side of the globe last winter.
He mentions if you see any El Nino coming on, watch how it drops back down towards La Nina. Funny how that's been happening in a sense. The Pacific trying to warm and Bang, back down. We're currently Neutral now.
It's pretty neat to see a 3 year future theory being tested now and does that mean Asia, Europe, or North America see a brutal winter this year? Signs are pointing to it.
wetter than normal... hopefully still cold enough for lots of snow... You never know though. We so often are on the snow/rain line here.... so much so that the north suburbs can get lots of snow, and here in the south suburbs mostly rain or ice.
Through out the models for a moment and look at the possibility of persistent stratospheric warming this winter... That would be the BOMB!
Also note, to those watching the pattern, we are heading into a stormy pattern. Models hinting at a coastal next week (first time in a long while) and a major winter storm unfolding out West this week..
El Nino like characteristics are showing up with some phasing of the jets. You can se the entire "flow" of things is starting to change from being VERY quiet. Lets see if it lasts into winter
wetter than normal... hopefully still cold enough for lots of snow... You never know though. We so often are on the snow/rain line here.... so much so that the north suburbs can get lots of snow, and here in the south suburbs mostly rain or ice.
Through out the models for a moment and look at the possibility of persistent stratospheric warming this winter... That would be the BOMB!
Think same here for British isles, I think we will be stuck in this warm pattern that we are in now for months. I don't think we are going to have a cold winter.
I remember this well and its getting interesting now.
Joe Bastardi in Sept 2010 used the ENSO theory and the Volcanic theory and showed how winters were few years after an event. Big volcano went off in 2010.
He says winter of 2012-13, 2013-14, & 2014-15 watch how the winters are and they get worse with the next.. He says either we will laugh at him or say holy moly this guy did his research. I wouldn't laugh just yet and I wonder if Europes brutal winter counts. Truth is, the stratosphere warmed that side of the globe last winter.
He mentions if you see any El Nino coming on, watch how it drops back down towards La Nina. Funny how that's been happening in a sense. The Pacific trying to warm and Bang, back down. We're currently Neutral now.
It's pretty neat to see a 3 year future theory being tested now and does that mean Asia, Europe, or North America see a brutal winter this year? Signs are pointing to it.
NOOOOO!!!!!! I don't want to experience frost on my car again like I did in 2010.
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Joe Bastardi 2010 Video
