[tkln]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Current Surface Map. See the Clipper over Lake Huron right now? This entire setup (clipper into NorEaster) would bury us with snow if it was 2-3 months from now.

I'm trying to decide which of those options I like better....rain+ wind for three days...or buried in snow.

[cloven]

Originally Posted by tkln

I'm trying to decide which of those options I like better....rain+ wind for three days...or buried in snow.

^Thanks for summing it up simply, as I didn't check the link.

If warmer temps accompany it, I'd prefer rain-though the high winds can undercut/neutralize that warmth.
My preference is: if it's going to be cold enough for it (freezing or below) anyway, then I want snow.

I can hold it together so long as there are a few leaves left on the trees (to buffer wind from northwest)-
once the branches are bare, the wind meets much less resistance & intensifies the chill.

Start to get impatient for snow already though experience tells me it'll be another couple months.
Expect snow may fall between now and Xmas-but I mean "accumulation" snow-not just a decorative flourish.

[Cambium]

From NWS Burlington..

"What is the CAUSE of this week's STALLED WEATHER PATTERN???"

https://twitter.com/NWSBurlington/st...485441/photo/1

[Cambium]

I always love the upslope and downslope talk! I like how they mention the atmosphere profile which will be warm enough for all rain, its like they're getting ready and feel the need to start looking now. . There's just no cold air around except above 8000'

Mentions 1 model (Euro) shows a cool weekend, the other (GFS) not as cool.

National Weather Service - Binghamton, NY - Text Data

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014


THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

[Cambium]

Don't shoot the messenger.

Burlington is having its warmest October on record with an average of 56.5°. That's since 1885!

Portland Maine warmest October on record as well 56.7° and from 1874!

Still 10 days left.

[Hopes]

Oh, my. I guess there won't be an early winter.

Do you have an opinion on if you think this winter will have a lot of snowfall or not?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Hopes

Oh, my. I guess there won't be an early winter.

Do you have an opinion on if you think this winter will have a lot of snowfall or not?

Without getting to technical, I'm seeing the atmosphere set itself up for a stormy pattern. We had a clipper, now a NorEaster, maybe another clipper Saturday. Usually the atmosphere takes time to establish or change, so to see this now it's possible we could have a stormy winter. Add cold air and that means a lot of snow. One week at a time.

Latest GFS wants us to see our first flakes next weekend. Doubt it still.

If you love weather or want to learn... here's the more technical read... ITS 73 PDF PAGES! Not bad since font is large. Print it and read it over Hot Coco. Its great stuff. Would love to hear someones thoughts on it.

Winter Forecast for 2014/2015 :: NY NJ PA WEATHER

Quick tid bit to get an idea of how this guy uses science to make his winter forecast...not models or analogs.

" This year, the western Atlantic is running 1.7 degrees Celsius above normal. Some areas off the East coast from Florida to the Canadian Maritimes and 300 NM out range from 2 degrees to an impressive 10 degrees Celsius above normal for this time of year. You might be
wondering why this observation is so important.

Remember what I said about the conservation of mass and the associated thermal gradients. What we have off the East coast is a powder keg of energy with warm, moist rising air along and just off the East coast. With rising air, you have a void in mass which means another air mass must fill that mass to achieve a balance.

This means that cold, dense air (you know, like that Polar and Arctic air mass in northwestern Canada) will race south and southeast to achieve a balance in the atmosphere. This leads to the potential for powerful storms along the East coast. When you combine the factors in the western Atlantic with the favorable SSTA environment in the northern Atlantic, we clearly have a very favorable environment for significant East coast storms or cyclogenesis. In short, Nor’easters."

[Cambium]

Oh, and dejavu from this past weekend coming up for this Sunday. Cold aloft, snow showers for high peaks. maybe levels drop down bit further this time.

Then "maybe" again the following weekend. I'm noticing a little trend going on. lol

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by Cambium

I always love the upslope and downslope talk!

The weather geek term is orographic lift. It's why the spine of the Green Mountains in central and northern Vermont gets 250" to 355" of snow. The relatively warm, moist air gets pushed uphill where it cools and releases that moisture as snow. The ski areas all have a cloud parked on top of them for much of the winter acting as nature's snowmaking machine.

[tkln]

Speaking of the white stuff...I'm seeing possible flakes in the long term forecast for next weekend. Yes???