[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by square peg

Could one of you good people comment on how the jet stream affects our weather? Or did I miss that installment? Just curious.

The jet stream is like a river of air in the atmosphere. The US is impacted by several different branches of the jet stream. The subtropical jet stream stretches from the southern Pacific through the southern tier of the US and often brings moisture laden storm systems with it. The northern branch of the jet stream generally brings stroms from the northern Pacific through the northern tier of the US and Canada. Often during a La Nina winter these two seperate jet streams are split (instead of one powerful jet combining forces- subtropical and northern). Basically during the colder months the jet stream sinks to the south across the middle and southern part of the US because the cold dense air coming down from the north forces the jet stream south. During the summer the inverse is true and warm moist area forces the jet stream north into Canada. The jet stream often separates two separate airmasses to the north and south of where it sets up.

[square peg]

Much appreciated, GS - Thanks! It was near 70 here with sunshine for a few hours this a.m. then torrential rains this evening as I was driving home just after dark.

[Cambium]

You guys ready to see the first snowfall of the season? Models are consistantly showing the cold air and the storm happening.

We wont know how much rain or snow until a little more time goes by.

1st image is from the latest GFS model for early morning Friday October 28th.

2nd image is the sounding forecast for the same hour which shows you different layers of atmosphere. Thats all snow falling.

[Cambium]

Models continue to show the potential for accumulating snows. Starting with Denver then moving across to New England.

here's the DGEX model accumulating snows. Other models are similar.

[GraniteStater]

^
That looks rather interesting. Hopefully more of the leaves come down before this possible storm moves through by the end of the week. What is complex about this time of year is that it is a transitional time so the models often have trouble with the "phasing" of the colder air or the timing of the cold in relation to any storms that move through.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

^
That looks rather interesting. Hopefully more of the leaves come down before this possible storm moves through by the end of the week. What is complex about this time of year is that it is a transitional time so the models often have trouble with the "phasing" of the colder air or the timing of the cold in relation to any storms that move through.

There was a nice discussion from NWS Taunton regarding the models disagreeing with eachother still... Usually they will all agree at least 5 days out..

National Weather Service Text Product Display

SEEMS THERE ARE TWO CAMPS...THE AMERICAN MODELS /NAM AND GFS/ VS. THE
INTERNATIONAL SUITE /GGEM AND ECMWF/...NAMELY FOR DEVELOPING LOW
PRES ON STALLED FRONT S OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE MIDDLE OR LATTER
PORTION OF THIS WEEK.

HOWEVER...THE NEW 12Z OP EC RUN DID COME IN
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO THE GFS...WITH A STRONGER LOW AND COLDER AIR
WORKING INTO THE REGION FOR THU NIGHT/FRI. THIS COULD LEAN TOWARD
SOME WINTRY...ALBEIT BRIEF...WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR INLAND HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT...BUT MAINLY LEANED TOWARD
THE HPC BLEND OF ENSEMBLES.

[square peg]

Usually a snow this time of year won't stick much, if at all, to the roads - unless it's in excess of 3-4 " But for safety's sake, I plan to have the snow tires mounted on my wife's car Tuesday or Wednesday. Fall weather at it's best is just plain crazy. Today I was outside painting my house.

[Cambium]

Does anyone remember october 2005? Hurricane Wilma became a NorEaster which dumped up to 2 feet of snow in parts of New England...In October.

I dont remember that. Wow.

And Lets see what the models show tomorrow. Today 4 of 7 show snow..one of them really crazy showing up to 18 inches for parts of NY, MA and southern VT.

Either way we have an actoive pattern and COLD air coming down.

Bundle up those trick or treaters. :-)

[square peg]

You know what? I don't remember anything special happening in '05 either. Here's a pic of Stowe, about an hour south of here, and the snow it received on 10/25/05



That's a dusting. Jay Peak reported 20" of snow that day and I live in the same zip code, so it must have affected the higher altitudes a little differently than the valleys.. The NWS referred it as a High Elevation Snow Storm.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by square peg

You know what? I don't remember anything special happening in '05 either. Here's a pic of Stowe, about an hour south of here, and the snow it received on 10/25/05



That's a dusting. Jay Peak reported 20" of snow that day and I live in the same zip code, so it must have affected the higher altitudes a little differently than the valleys.. The NWS referred it as a High Elevation Snow Storm.

Excellent post. Thanks for the link... went through every slide last night.

Well......If you're travelling keep an eye on Thursdays and Saturdays storms.

Saturdays is still up in the air... 4 of 7 models have Senario #2.