Why is Montgomery County, Texas so conservative?

[Texyn]

Originally Posted by Cowboys fan in Houston

It is the official data collected of the 2016 election.

The year for those stats (which you've posted before!) is clearly listed as 2012. Learn to read.

It is based on exit polls. Nonetheless, its very common sense.

I said that.

Houston is far less white than DFW, yet Houston only BARELY votes more blue than DFW on the whole. The Houston (and the only reason) Greater Houston votes more blue is because Houston has more minorities, not because its more liberal.

This all boils down to the oil industry IMO. The oil industry is heavily Republican not necessarily for social reasons, but they dont like regulations, taxes, and any mention of global warming.

Dallas isnt an oil city.

Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare

The fact that Trump got 51.3% of the Dallas area's vote and Dallas is 50% White while Trump has 48.5% of Houston's vote and Houston metro area is only 37% White.
https://www.citylab.com/equity/2016/...-voted/508313/
That means Trump is eating up either a large chunk of the minority vote or an even larger chunk of the white vote. Either way if Houston was voting demographically the same as Dallas, Fort Bend would have stopped voting republican back in 2000 let alone just last election.

Or simply that the demographic composition for the area as a whole isn't the same as that for the population that actually voted.

[NigerianNightmare]

Originally Posted by Texyn

The year for those stats (which you've posted before!) is clearly listed as 2012. Learn to read.



I said that.





Or simply that the demographic composition for the area as a whole isn't the same as that for the population that actually voted.

True but it would have to be drastic to represent a 13% change in whites, I know Hispanics don't go out to vote as much as whites and blacks do but that doesn't explain a 13% gap. IMO it is one of the previously mentioned things. Houston has more conservative whites than Dallas or more conservative minorities. I'm willing to bet it is a combination of both because a 13% gap can't be explained by saying conservatives are encouraged to go out and vote here than other cities.

[Texyn]

Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare

True but it would have to be drastic to represent a 13% change in whites, I know Hispanics don't go out to vote as much as whites and blacks do but that doesn't explain a 13% gap. IMO it is one of the previously mentioned things. Houston has more conservative whites than Dallas or more conservative minorities. I'm willing to bet it is a combination of both because a 13% gap can't be explained by saying conservatives are encouraged to go out and vote here than other cities.

Again, the metro-wide demographics don't matter, only the demographics of those who actually voted do. Black and Asian percentages are similar between Houston and DFW, meaning that Hispanics represent the largest part of the difference in minorities between the two metros. But since Hispanics don't turn out as much, the voter demographics between the two metros end up more equalized.

[NigerianNightmare]

I understand what your saying but The Hispanic percentage of voters is 50% the percentage of whites who vote is 66%. Now their is a 13 point gap, I don't see with those numbers how that would make any sense, you would need to significantly lower Hispanic turnout for that to happen or significantly increase white turnout. I understand what your saying but even if hispanics have lower turnout a 13% gap is a massive amount of votes that would have to be made up. I'm pretty sure you can't just say Dallas and Houston have similar voting demographics either, while we are similar cities I still stand that Houston is more conservative voting than Dallas for such a vote to happen, again Donald Trump still won Houston area by a hair and Dallas by a few percentage points. How can he win an area that is 37% White in nearly the same style as he won an area that is 50% White. You can't chalk that up to Hispanics not just turning out seeing as it is 50% vs. 66% turnout rate for Hispanics vs. Whites.

Just look at Harris County- 44% Hispanic 29% White 18% Black
Dallas County- 42% Hispanic 28% White 22% Black
One voted 64-36 when you exclude other candidates for Hillary
Another voted 56-44 when you exclude Hillary. a four percent change in black percentage does not explain an eight percent swing in the vote, no matter how much math you use.

Also demographics do matter, you can say voting demographics matter but an area that is more than 50% black will never vote Republican in the real world. You simply can't find it. The only place that comes close are the 40-45% black areas of Mississippi and Louisiana were the white population is as or even more conservative than the black population is liberal.

You have to come to the conclusion that either Hispanics when compared to Dallas really don't at all come out to vote whatsoever or that Houston either A has more conservative minorities or has more conservative whites.

[Cowboys fan in Houston]

Originally Posted by Texyn

The year for those stats (which you've posted before!) is clearly listed as 2012. Learn to read.



I said that.





Or simply that the demographic composition for the area as a whole isn't the same as that for the population that actually voted.

Ok, I missed the year. My point still stands. That changes nothing!

[Texyn]

Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare

I understand what your saying but The Hispanic percentage of voters is 50% the percentage of whites who vote is 66%. Now their is a 13 point gap, I don't see with those numbers how that would make any sense, you would need to significantly lower Hispanic turnout for that to happen or significantly increase white turnout. I understand what your saying but even if hispanics have lower turnout a 13% gap is a massive amount of votes that would have to be made up. I'm pretty sure you can't just say Dallas and Houston have similar voting demographics either, while we are similar cities I still stand that Houston is more conservative voting than Dallas for such a vote to happen, again Donald Trump still won Houston area by a hair and Dallas by a few percentage points. How can he win an area that is 37% White in nearly the same style as he won an area that is 50% White. You can't chalk that up to Hispanics not just turning out seeing as it is 50% vs. 66% turnout rate for Hispanics vs. Whites.

Just look at Harris County- 44% Hispanic 29% White 18% Black
Dallas County- 42% Hispanic 28% White 22% Black
One voted 64-36 when you exclude other candidates for Hillary
Another voted 56-44 when you exclude Hillary. a four percent change in black percentage does not explain an eight percent swing in the vote, no matter how much math you use.

You have to come to the conclusion that either Hispanics when compared to Dallas really don't at all come out to vote whatsoever or that Houston either A has more conservative minorities or has more conservative whites.

It's not hard to figure out. Liberal Whites and Hispanics are two groups that trend blue. Houston has more of the latter, while DFW has more of the former. Whites of both political spectra have higher turnout rates than Hispanics. So it ends up that DFW has more of a blue voting group that creates stronger Democratic Party success than Houston does: this serves both to make Dallas County have stronger victory margins for HC than Harris County, and also serves to make the Trump margin between the two areas "close," despite Houston's "far greater" minority percentages.

Hispanic votes largely remained unchanged from 2012 to 2016, whereas White votes increased:
https://www.texastribune.org/2017/05...2016-election/
https://www.texastribune.org/2016/11...e-change-turn/

Also demographics do matter, you can say voting demographics matter but an area that is more than 50% black will never vote Republican in the real world. You simply can't find it. The only place that comes close are the 40-45% black areas of Mississippi and Louisiana were the white population is as or even more conservative than the black population is liberal.

The results still come down to the demographics that voted, end of story. If all the blacks voted liberal in that area, but enough of them stayed home while the conservative whiles participated, then the area certainly can end up Republican.

Originally Posted by Cowboys fan in Houston

Ok, I missed the year. My point still stands. That changes nothing!

I addressed your points in my responses to NigerianNightmare.

The Houston (and the only reason) Greater Houston votes more blue is because Houston has more minorities, not because its more liberal.

Because we all know that the two are mutually exclusive.

[VeniVidiVelcro]

What's in the air in Montgomery County? It doesn't feel any different from other newer, middle-class suburban/exurban areas in Texas, and it's not substantially whiter. Why is it that much more Republican?

Cause they are smarter, and understand that there is no perfect political system or stance, but adding everything up, liberals / democrats talk about making everything / body feel better by raising taxes, opening our borders (depressing wages/taking jobs from the poorest of AMERICANS) and letting 'preverts' teach our kids/abort on demand, but in reality simply wind up taking more of our money for projects that OVER ALL actually make things worse.

Or to put it more simply:

Liberals are proud to say they are descended from monkeys.
Conservatives admit we are endowed by our Creator....

PS - now let me put Montgomery County on my short list of places to move to.

[kemahkami]

^wtf

[Mr. Clutch]

Originally Posted by ScrappyJoe

^wtf

Haha. To be fair, the last two pages of this thread were very entertaining and I never would have found it if that newbie troll poster above you didn't bump it.

[DabOnEm]

Originally Posted by Mr. Clutch

Haha. To be fair, the last two pages of this thread were very entertaining and I never would have found it if that newbie troll poster above you didn't bump it.

That "troll" has a sign up date before you so I don't know about newbie lol