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Honestly I have read to many articles, seen to many lectures and tv shows on what will happen when the integrated circuit comes to a end to worry about it. The latest show was on Fox Business Network last week, Stossel. This is not new to the computer industry as we are on the 5th paradigm and it has had a good run, however, it will come to a end but like with paradigms before (like the vacuum tube) it will not mean the end of computers advancing exponentially it just means we will move to the next paradigm, the 3 D self organizing molecular circuit. Now will people still call it Moore's law? Maybe maybe not but computers will still be advancing exponentially.
Honestly I have read to many articles, seen to many lectures and tv shows on what will happen when the integrated circuit comes to a end to worry about it. The latest show was on Fox Business Network last week, Stossel. This is not new to the computer industry as we are on the 5th paradigm and it has had a good run, however, it will come to a end but like with paradigms before (like the vacuum tube) it will not mean the end of computers advancing exponentially it just means we will move to the next paradigm, the 3 D self organizing molecular circuit. Now will people still call it Moore's law? Maybe maybe not but computers will still be advancing exponentially.
And even if we don't move to the next stage by the time Moore's law ends, many believe advancing will only slow down not completely stop. I guess we'll see in 10 years.
And even if we don't move to the next stage by the time Moore's law ends, many believe advancing will only slow down not completely stop. I guess we'll see in 10 years.
We should know before that. From what I have read the 3D self organizing molecular circuit will be ready between 2015 and 2020. Then the current integrated circuit will end as it gets down to 5nm between 2020 and 2025.
Yes, nanotechnology and printed organs etc could result in practical immortality, barring severe accidents. Oh, there was something involving telomeres also, preventing our dna from unravelling after their Hayflick Limit...... or something like that, further down the road.
Heinlein dealt with that in some of his novels. They used drugs and transplants and other things which were 'magic' but his theme was what living for a long long long life did to society. The oldest were the most powerful and those who served them got to have access to the technology. The man of fourty or fifty was just starting to get past step one. And the people who didn't get the magic lived and died in their subsociety in a normal span of life.
I hate to say it but if all this stuff does come to exist, I think the world will look a lot more like Heinlein and a lot less that the dreamers who love the lure of tech. Tech happens within a series of constraints be they monitary or social or genetic. No reason to expect things to change.
Heinlein dealt with that in some of his novels. They used drugs and transplants and other things which were 'magic' but his theme was what living for a long long long life did to society. The oldest were the most powerful and those who served them got to have access to the technology. The man of fourty or fifty was just starting to get past step one. And the people who didn't get the magic lived and died in their subsociety in a normal span of life.
I hate to say it but if all this stuff does come to exist, I think the world will look a lot more like Heinlein and a lot less that the dreamers who love the lure of tech. Tech happens within a series of constraints be they monitary or social or genetic. No reason to expect things to change.
I have not seen that particular movie but I have seen many fiction movies on the future and while they make for good movies the reality is life will not follow some Hollywood story line.
Scientists develop a 'nanosubmarine' that delivers complementary molecules inside cells
This is yet another example of technology getting smaller so I thought I would post it.
This is from Phys.org:
With the continuing need for very small devices in therapeutic applications, there is a growing demand for the development of nanoparticles that can transport and deliver drugs to target cells in the human body.
Recently, researchers created nanoparticles that under the right conditions, self-assemble – trapping complementary guest molecules within their structure. Like tiny submarines, these versatile nanocarriers can navigate in the watery environment surrounding cells and transport their guest molecules through the membrane of living cells to sequentially deliver their cargo.
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
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Originally Posted by nightbird47
Heinlein dealt with that in some of his novels. They used drugs and transplants and other things which were 'magic' but his theme was what living for a long long long life did to society. The oldest were the most powerful and those who served them got to have access to the technology. The man of fourty or fifty was just starting to get past step one. And the people who didn't get the magic lived and died in their subsociety in a normal span of life.
I hate to say it but if all this stuff does come to exist, I think the world will look a lot more like Heinlein and a lot less that the dreamers who love the lure of tech. Tech happens within a series of constraints be they monitary or social or genetic. No reason to expect things to change.
Heinlein was a pure anarcho-capitalist, Ayn Rand style. My guess is that only countries with a cooperative mindset, everyone working together for common goals, will eventually prevail over the individual greed model of govt ...... Europe and Scandinavia will probably eventually offer these technologies as needed to poor as well as rich.... and eventually they won't have any poor citizens by today's standards.
Again, people who are healthy and have a decent income don't overbreed, so populations in those countries would remain stable.
For those of us who are aware about the ideas behind the Singularity, "transhumanism", post-scarcity, and how things could be rapidly converging to a point where things could likely become way better than anything we've ever imagined, why do you think the majority of our fellow human travelers have not even heard of or given thought about it yet? Would the world experience any changes if people became more aware of what may lead to happen, with sufficient collaborative effort?
Because the idea is mostly rubbish that appeals to "some" sci-fi geeks. As a sci-fi geek I think it is optimistic delusion.
I think we do have pose-scarcity with computers in the US. But how do people make money with it? We can never have enough useless changes in software. I have a Linux book from 2001 that talks about the planned obsolescence of software.
A $200 tablet has more than 100 times the processing power of a mainframe that cost millions in the 1980s. Processing power is not scarce. But the knowledge to use it. All of these school courses with different titles that barely explain what they teach about computers.
Because the idea is mostly rubbish that appeals to "some" sci-fi geeks. As a sci-fi geek I think it is optimistic delusion.
I think we do have pose-scarcity with computers in the US. But how do people make money with it? We can never have enough useless changes in software. I have a Linux book from 2001 that talks about the planned obsolescence of software.
A $200 tablet has more than 100 times the processing power of a mainframe that cost millions in the 1980s. Processing power is not scarce. But the knowledge to use it. All of these school courses with different titles that barely explain what they teach about computers.
What computer courses explain that so quickly? Our economic power games depend on delusions of scarcity if not real scarcity.
psik
So you agree that computers are advancing exponentially, however, you argue that the software is not keeping up? That is simply not true. Just look at the number of apps out there for the smart phone alone. Ray Kurzweil actually addressed that in his book:
In The Singularity Is Near, I address this issue at length, citing different methods of measuring complexity and capability in software that demonstrate a similar exponential growth. One recent study (“Report to the President and Congress, Designing a Digital Future: Federally Funded Research and Development in Networking and Information Technology” by the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology) states the following: “Even more remarkable—and even less widely understood—is that in many areas, performance gains due to improvements in algorithms have vastly exceeded even the dramatic performance gains due to increased processor speed.
So while this might look like some science fiction show its not.
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Scientists develop a 'nanosubmarine' that delivers complementary molecules inside cells
