Del Sur and 4S - current market conditions (San Diego, Poway: for sale, real estate)

[sd3280]

My husband received an offer to relocate to San Diego and we are trying to learn as much as we can about the neighborhoods, schools, cost of living, before we decide if we can accept the offer or not. It is completely overwhelming! We are a family with two young children who would be attending local, public schools.
We are interested in Del Sur and 4s and looking for a property less than 650k. There appears to be almost no inventory - why is this? Is everyone making an offer before the properties even hit the market? I know this is considered a very low budget for the area, but the results are similar when I search for higher prices as well.
From redfin comments, it appears that the sellers are getting multiple offers, even over the asking price, some are including letters to connect with the seller, etc. Is there anyone on this forum who has been looking to buy in these areas? What has your experience been like, is it as challenging as it appears? Some prices seem inflated, and some are 120k+ more than just a year ago when the property was purchased. It all seems very erratic.
Our offer includes 8 weeks of temporary housing and that doesn't seem to be a realistic time frame to me.
In fact, after reading many, many threads on this forum over the weekend, I am completely discouraged and scared about our possible move!
If you have any advice or insight on purchasing in the area, I'd appreciate it. If you live there - how do you like it?

[shmoov_groovzsd]

I cant give you any direct personal insight into living in those places, but am curious why 4S Ranch and Del Sur specifically?

If you have seen on some of the threads, its generally unwise to simply jump in and buy in SD without much familiarity of the various areas to live without a fair amount of due diligence.

650k is probably on the lower side for a larger home in 4S and Del Sur. Maybe not so much for a townhome. There are other areas that could get you a house with good schools and not far from the areas you are looking at.

The market is still chugging along here in San Diego and havent seen much of a cool down this year.

[oddstray]

Del Sur and 4S Ranch are newer developments. I'd be amazed if there was anything as low as 650k for a SFH there. Condo or townhouse, maybe.

I'm not in the market myself, but I keep hearing stories of house-buying madness in San Diego. So what you're finding is probably going to be true anywhere in San Diego.

I agree that 8 weeks of temporary housing wouldn't be realistic if you plan to come here and buy a house right away. I recommend to come here and use that 8 weeks to find a place to rent for a year while you research the possibilities.

[thelopez2]

It doesn't matter what things sold for last year, the past is the past.

[sd3280]

shmoov_groovzsd - thanks for your response. We are somewhat familiar with the area and have visited several times, looked at the properties in Poway, Rancho Bernardo, Del Sur, 4S (not with a realtor, just on our own)... True, we could get a bigger house in the surrounding areas, but we are ok with the townhouse and we don't need a yard as long as it's a 3bd. I know it's not everyone's cup of tea, but we just love the feel of those two neighborhoods, and newer housing. We live in a similar development now (although in a bigger house without that pesky mello roos!)

oddstray - it does appear to be buying madness. We were thinking it would be easier to buy now, during school year. I can't imagine what things are going to be like in summertime!

I am trying to get in touch with a local realtor so hopefully I will get some questions answered. I just wanted to hear from someone other than a realtor as well, so if there's anyone reading this who went through the buying process in those areas recently, I'd love to hear from you.

[shmoov_groovzsd]

There are some super helpful tips via this blog. I would also suggest going with an agent that really knows the market in these areas.

bubbleinfo.com | An insider's guide to North San Diego County Real Estate | Klinge Realty Blog by Jim Klinge

[NYSD1995]

No inventory really anywhere that is desirable right now. We are looking at a couple of specific areas near our son's school and aside from a fewof high-turnover homes on main streets, there are literally 3 homes for sale at any price. IMO most people are not selling unless they have to (job, life change, etc) and due to the uncertain economy and low volume of sales in the current market, I don't see this changing anytime soon.

[SanDiegoHopeful]

I did some house hunting in these neighborhoods from mid 2011 to late 2012 and the market was completely different then. At that time, there were lots of short sales of newer SFHs in 4S Ranch. I did tour one of them 16570 Gettysburg Dr, San Diego, CA 92127 | MLS# 120053820 | Redfin which was in immaculate condition. The market when I toured the house was a bit frothy but not as crazy as right now. As of now, many houses in desirable part of Rancho Penasquitos, Camel Valley are listing above the 2006 peak price. This coupled with the hike in interest rate has cooled the mania a bit but not much. I have seen multiple price reductions on many properties in Rancho Penasquitos but the reduced prices are still way above comps. Personally, I don't think this is a normal market because of the extremely low level of inventory, very low interest rate (compared to historical average), and big money speculation. If you don't have to, I don't think you should buy as soon as you move here. San Diego is a nice place to live so don't be too scared to move, especially when you already have a job offer with temp housing. During the first 8 weeks, you'll be able to figure out where to live and if buying is right for you. There is no shame in renting, if it is short or mid term.

[docmcstuffin]

This one just closed under $650k: SDLookup.com | 8405*Christopher*Ridge*Terrace - MLS# 130041745
Also, based on recent closings, it seem like there are more close below ask than above asking price: SDLookup.com | West Rancho Bernardo Home Sales Supply suck right now because it's Winter time. If you want more choices, you'd have to wait till Spring/Summer time.

[USDefault]

Originally Posted by sd3280

There appears to be almost no inventory - why is this? Is everyone making an offer before the properties even hit the market? . . .

Some prices seem inflated, and some are 120k+ more than just a year ago when the property was purchased. It all seems very erratic.

Yes, the prices are inflated. Mortgage rates are laughably, artificially low, a direct consequence of the Federal Reserve purchasing a whopping $85 billion in debt issuance every month, together with implicit backstops/guarantees of the GSEs.

When quantitative easing ends, rates will rise. Prices will implode, just like the last bubble in 2006-2007. People simply don't make enough money to buy $800k homes at 6% apr, and with a rise in rates, the investment funds will move on to instruments that provide easier returns.

Be careful.