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I just watched a 2-hour special on cable going over the outlook of the US economy now that we are getting full swing into the election year.
Most of the overall predictions were not all that promising for the next 18 months. The housing market specifically called for 10-50% price reduction across the country with the exception of a few mentioned areas. One of those areas? You guessed it, the Triangle. Although they said we would remain flat or perhaps see a slight 1-2% dip, we would not see much more then that. One analysts even predicted a slight increase for the area over the next 18 months! Places like Florida, California, Washington, etc, ouch! Some predictions were as dire as 40-50% drops with no rebound until well into 2011 in these areas! The Triangle area, while it increased, did so outside a classic bubble, at a nice steady pace, with jobs to drive it. We should reap those benefits now by not falling off the edge of earth like they will in many other places. Not to mention everyone and their cousin's uncle wants to live here! This always helps.
That being said, they overall state of the US economy is not looking real good right now. We are in for a rough 24 months or so. Jobs are really tightening, energy costs are enormous, pressure to increase taxes, the list goes on and on.
Well its nice to know we are just stabilizing and not seeing that huge increase anymore. I like stable.. stable is good. (I say stable because the small dip the triangle will be taking isn't really terrible considering how big the bubble was)
Housing prices have been stable here for a few years. Although the number of sales is decreasing and the pace is slowing, from what I have seen and heard prices should stay stable or have small decreases.
People trying to sell a home they bought <2 years ago won't see any gains, but that is what we always tell people.... buy if you are looking to stay 3-5 years. That way you can ride out the ups and downs in the market better.
The only issues I see are larger builders, that have to contend with losses in other area. They are dropping prices or making deals becuase even if RDU is okay, they are hurting from investments in FL and CA and need to make up for it with some sales. The job market could also have a huge impact if the economy continues towards recession.
I like stable as well.... rapid increases in price may be good for some people for short times, but is bad in the long run. It makes homes unaffordable for the average family and eventually leads to the problems we are facing now.
It is always good to see a doom and gloom balanced with some upbeat and clear counter points. I agree this areas housing market is sound and healthy and should remain that way while the rest of the country tracks through the life cycle of doom and gloom. I also believe our economy is not healthy at least for 2008 as it is an election year so which party really wants to promote it? It should rebound in 2009 once a new administration takes over. True our middle class is shrinking but it has been since the 1970's so that does not concern me as much as rising energy prices. But then again with the massive tax revenue's gasoline and diesel bring in for the federal and state governments who really wants to see alternative fuels other than the consumers?
Anyway its almost New Years so its a time for hope and prosperity. Happy New Years all (Upper/Middle/Lower) earners!
This crashing economy is the end result of fuel prices increasing so rapidly and the clay-footed housing market......why why why this was so unforeseen by economists and stopped way before it got as bad as it did...come on, houses doubling and tripling in value in one year? Down was the only was out of it........
Then add the ever-increasing food costs:I've always been one of those "photogenic shoppers" and remember the price of everything I buy (my own little anti-aging game at the check-out: see if I can name the price of an item before it flashes on the screen). And have prices really started to climb and not cents but dollars for some items....hubbie is in the trucking of corn syrup and his company is preparing to raise the cost after the new year substantially...and if you look at you food labels, corn syrup, futose, etc is in EVERYTHING.....the dominoe effect has begun.
The economists are talking recession? If we're lucky! The implosion of the housing and car industry combined has the potential to pull us way deeper than that...
Ummmm, my upbeat comment for the day....it's sunny out! Sorry this tangented off from the Triangle point of view a bit....
The economists really have no idea how this will shake out, heck, the banks don't even know what they own or how to price it. Most economists predict a downward trend in real estate for the next year or two; the NAR predicts the best year ever...the best thing to do is wait and see, we'll know much more by the early summer...
This crashing economy is the end result of fuel prices increasing so rapidly and the clay-footed housing market......why why why this was so unforeseen by economists and stopped way before it got as bad as it did...come on, houses doubling and tripling in value in one year? Down was the only was out of it........
Then add the ever-increasing food costs:I've always been one of those "photogenic shoppers" and remember the price of everything I buy (my own little anti-aging game at the check-out: see if I can name the price of an item before it flashes on the screen). And have prices really started to climb and not cents but dollars for some items....hubbie is in the trucking of corn syrup and his company is preparing to raise the cost after the new year substantially...and if you look at you food labels, corn syrup, futose, etc is in EVERYTHING.....the dominoe effect has begun.
The economists are talking recession? If we're lucky! The implosion of the housing and car industry combined has the potential to pull us way deeper than that...
Ummmm, my upbeat comment for the day....it's sunny out! Sorry this tangented off from the Triangle point of view a bit....
The bursting bubble was seen by economist and predicted. The only question was when. News shows had reports 2-3 years ago that it can't continue. The trick is timing in and timing out. Even though there is money being lost now it in many cases is well exceeded by the money that was made.
Sure buyer number 6 of the being built condo in Miami got stuck but buyer 5 got out in time and made their bundle. Had they not taken the risk they would not have made the profit. Believe me there are lots of folks in the Triangle who are very happy about the run up in housing up north. They made their bundle and ran south.
Top flight realtors may being feeling some pain now but three years ago? If they invested? Wow!
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It was seen coming
