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It's been 9 months now, and the videos coming out of Ukraine are heartbreaking -- Russian soldiers, out in the open, shredded by drones and artillery.
One video shows a line of Russian soldiers, single file, all lying dead, crumpled bodies strung out into the horizon. No armored vehicles in sight.
Within the foreseeable future, Russian soldiers will be driven back to the pre-February borders. Then what? Some imagine that at this point the possibility for negotiations becomes real.
I wonder what there would be to negotiate.
Ukrainians are suffering, no questions about that. However, the Ukrainian military is on a roll, getting more long range weapons by the day, showing no signs of slowing down. Hard to imagine them agreeing to the pre-February borders. Would Ukraine trade Crimea for ceding the Donbas? What else is there to trade?
While a cease fire would be a welcome relief, seems it would be in Ukraine's best long term interest to decimate the Russian military while they have the chance and the support. Why trade that away for a temporary ceasefire?
Putin shows no signs of backing down.
So what is there to negotiate?
That's the logical conclusion for Ukraine. Recognize the loss of Crimea and get everything else back. Russia gets an end to sanctions and keeps Crimea. As a face saving measure for Ukraine, maybe Crimea goes under UN supervision before a plebiscite that would undoubtedly favor Russia.
But Russia needs to take more of a beating, or Putin needs to be removed, before they agree to that conclusion.
That's the logical conclusion for Ukraine. Recognize the loss of Crimea and get everything else back. Russia gets an end to sanctions and keeps Crimea. As a face saving measure for Ukraine, maybe Crimea goes under UN supervision before a plebiscite that would undoubtedly favor Russia.
But Russia needs to take more of a beating, or Putin needs to be removed, before they agree to that conclusion.
Crimea as a neutral, demilitarized zone - sort of like Russia had planned for Ukraine to be? Would be pleasing. But I'm sure the resident Putin-backers will be here shortly to explain why that's like, totally different.
That may be 5 years from now, but at some point, there needs to be an agreement or Ukraine keeps getting missiles periodically lobbed at them.
Russia's ability to lob missiles into Ukrainian cities isn't infinite. Cruise missiles are expensive, their stocks limited, and defenses are increasing.
Crimea as a neutral, demilitarized zone - sort of like Russia had planned for Ukraine to be? Would be pleasing. But I'm sure the resident Putin-backers will be here shortly to explain why that's like, totally different.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang
Russia's ability to lob missiles into Ukrainian cities isn't infinite. Cruise missiles are expensive, their stocks limited, and defenses are increasing.
A Crimea without a Kerch Strait Bridge would be a good start. Before the Russians suddenly remembered Crimea belonged to them exclusively, the Russian and Ukrainian ships shared it peacefully. That ended, of course.
Russia cannot be trusted. Not in Georgia, not in Chechnya and not in Ukraine. The Russian ability to return must be cancelled.
51 out of 70 cruise missiles were shot down on Nov 23. 51 of them were shot down. That's a big improvement from a few months ago. Hopefully that will improve.
70 in one day is not a record, as far as I can find, but it's a lot. Short Range Ballistic Missiles count (600 miles or less), too, even though they do less damage and the highest number I see there is over 300 in a day, many months ago.
SRBM's are everywhere. It seems like every country has some. As far as you and I are concerned Russia will never run out. And Russia can never be trusted; any "peace" is just a delaying tactic.
That's why Russia must become impoverished, and unable to field an army.
The "not aging well" post of the day award goes to Lancers. Back in September Lancers assured us that the gloves were coming off, Russia was really getting serious now and Ukraine should say goodbye to the east.
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Originally Posted by lancers
They should be happy if Vlad lets them have access to the Black Sea via Odessa. Say goodbye to the East.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lancers
The gloves come off. Watch how Ivan does it. They will bring serious force to bear.
Of course since this brilliant prognostication Russia has lost Kherson, continued to flounder across the rest of the entire front, and seems far more concerned about defending Crimea than taking back the east. Well done General Lancers!
As long as people continue to post that sanctions are destroying the Russian economy without any evidence to back that up, I will continue to challenge it.
As I have said before if you believe Western propaganda that Russia is on the verge of running out of missiles, and their economy is on the brink of collapse, and that is going to end the war soon, then you are just as bad as the Russians who believe the Kremlin propaganda that the war is going as planned for Russia.
Both sides are spewing out nonsensical propaganda. None of it is reality.
Were the dirty carrots reality? If you say 'Yes' then I'm going to reply "But dirty carrots". If you say 'No' then I'm going to say "So no carrots at all?"
That's the logical conclusion for Ukraine. Recognize the loss of Crimea and get everything else back. Russia gets an end to sanctions and keeps Crimea. As a face saving measure for Ukraine, maybe Crimea goes under UN supervision before a plebiscite that would undoubtedly favor Russia.
But Russia needs to take more of a beating, or Putin needs to be removed, before they agree to that conclusion.
If that were the solution what was the problem implementing Minsk agreements and avoiding this terrible war? As I said before, the US should had taken the lead on this from the get go.
Now, years later we have one side that grew more and more paranoid, a salivating MIC here that does not want this to end, and the other side, that's on the record, they were never serious about Minsk. Just wanted time to beef up military.
P.S. lastly, even better: after the coup or the revolution whatever you want to call it: autonomy granted to Donbas, Russian language, etc. No deaths.
The "not aging well" post of the day award goes to Lancers. Back in September Lancers assured us that the gloves were coming off, Russia was really getting serious now and Ukraine should say goodbye to the east.
Of course since this brilliant prognostication Russia has lost Kherson, continued to flounder across the rest of the entire front, and seems far more concerned about defending Crimea than taking back the east. Well done General Lancers!
...interesting...im so confused..so, who's winning?...
If that were the solution what was the problem implementing Minsk agreements and avoiding this terrible war? As I said before, the US should had taken the lead on this from the get go.
Now, years later we have one side that grew more and more paranoid, a salivating MIC here that does not want this to end, and the other side, that's on the record, they were never serious about Minsk. Just wanted time to beef up military.
P.S. lastly, even better: after the coup or the revolution whatever you want to call it: autonomy granted to Donbas, Russian language, etc. No deaths.
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