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MOST countries in the world would get along fine without US commerce. There are, what, 196 countries represented in the UN?.... Yeah. Most of them do just fine on their own.
Russia is not one. Russia needed US companies like Exon and Shell to partner with them and develop the oil and gas industry. Those companies and 1200 others have left, abandoning their investments, which will deteriorate in place.
A "back door" or some sort will replace the thousands of container loads of cargo that used to flow in and out of Russia? The very idea that some sort of "back door" would magically appear is laughable, and the stuff of science fiction. The Port of Saint Petersburg, Russia exchanged 52,000 million tons of goods in 2021. 52,000 million. There will be no "back door" to replace even a small portion of that trade. The three largest container companies ceased trading in and out of Saint Petersburg in March.
There will be violations of the sanctions, but they will not replace what has been lost. Europe will wean itself off Russian gas, and Shell will not be back. The sanctions will remain in place for years and Russia will become impoverished and irrelevant.
I am afraid your opinion that this somehow works in Russia's favor is without merit. History will plod forward without a powerful Russia.
Guess we will just have to wait and see how Russia does with a fraction of the foreign investment and trade it had a year ago.
The results of Putin's mobilization will likely have some impact as well.
The increasing number of Russian military losses, sanctions against Russia and crackdown on civil and economic liberties in Russia will sooner or later reach the critical limit and lead to an implosion in Russia.
Arestovych predicts that the serious internal problems in Russia will start in February-March 2023.
End of thread. Next broadcast: tomorrow on Friday, 18th November (to be confirmed).
Guess we will just have to wait and see how Russia does with a fraction of the foreign investment and trade it had a year ago.
The results of Putin's mobilization will likely have some impact as well.
Well, the balance of trade should improve for Russia, now that it's not importing scads of consumer products from abroad. Maybe that will stimulate P to invest in domestic light industry, finally, something that Medvedev wanted to do, but the price of oil dropped out from under him after he was elected, so he couldn't. Russia's always neglected development of consumer goods production.
I guess consumer goods are a low priority for the gov't right now, given the reduction in revenue, though. Gee, maybe some of those oligarchs, not to mention any names , will have to start paying their fair share of taxes.
Well, the balance of trade should improve for Russia, now that it's not importing scads of consumer products from abroad. Maybe that will stimulate P to invest in domestic light industry, finally, something that Medvedev wanted to do, but the price of oil dropped out from under him after he was elected, so he couldn't. Russia's always neglected development of consumer goods production.
I guess consumer goods are a low priority for the gov't right now, given the reduction in revenue, though. Gee, maybe some of those oligarchs, not to mention any names , will have to start paying their fair share of taxes.
There was a widely read opinion piece earlier this year opining that the Russian invasion had to do with the price of oil. The story was, "The price has gone up, and since we sell oil that won't be sanctioned now is our moment to take Ukraine. We'll be sanctioned and criticized but we have plenty of money set aside and it'll all be over in a few weeks".
The Price of oil is now $79. It was $93 when the invasion began.
Russia can't even get $79 for it. They must sell theirs at a discount of around 30%.
Oil volume has started to fall. Fear of secondary sanctions is real and some countries do not want to risk their American business.
And the war has gone on much longer than Russia anticipated.
Russia anticipated some sanctions (surely!) but not depth of the sanctions and not the boycotts.
Hopefully, there won't be some sort of big blow-up revolution in Russia with pitchforks and torches and all.
The nicest thing that could happen is a full on mutiny in the armed forces with the soldiers just walking away.
Those who call for negotiation right now are wise. I don't see it happening, but now is a good time while Ukraine has the advantage and the backing. That may not last forever.
IIRC, when Russia first invaded Ukraine, and the sanctions got underway, Biden was clear that it would be some time before we saw the impact.
There's been a recent flurry of posts about how great Russia's economy is doing, stores stocked to the brim with consumer goods. Better stocked than some U.S. Walmarts, where half the shelves are empty and so forth.
There's that video of a Russian mall with shoppers, and stores crammed with goods, though it seemed that some stores were stocked but not actually open for shoppers.. Nonetheless, they all were chock full. No problems here.
Can't help but wonder if the flurry of "Things are great, just great" with the Russian economy isn't just whistling past the graveyard.
The Price of oil is now $79. It was $93 when the invasion began.
.
End of November 2021, 1 year ago oil was as low as $66 a barrel.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307
Fear of secondary sanctions is real and some countries do not want to risk their American business.
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That is true, but other companies will ignore US sanctions as they specialize in Russian business.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307
And the war has gone on much longer than Russia anticipated.
Russia anticipated some sanctions (surely!) but not depth of the sanctions and not the boycotts.
It's too hard to say for sure what Russia anticipated. I'd speculate they expected sanctions, but not to this extent. There is also a chance they expected all of this, yet still felt compelled to do what they have done to prevent a whole Ukraine from becoming another hostile (Towards Russian Interests) country.
The separatist DPR began Russia’s wider war on Ukraine in February with around 20,000 men in six light infantry brigades. By November, the army had lost 3,746 killed in action and 15,794 wounded in action, according to the DPR’s ombudsman.
That’s 19,540 KIAs or WIAs. While many of the wounded undoubtedly returned to front-line service, many didn’t. And yes, the DPR army has expanded over the course of the nine-month wider war through the forced mobilization of thousands of men from the separatist state’s 2.3 million population.
But even if the DPR army doubled in size, losing half its ultimate manpower is still catastrophic. The U.S. Army assumes a unit becomes incapable of major combat after losing just 31 percent of its strength, according to the service’s Field Manual 101-5-1.
That the DPR army has suffered extreme casualties should come as no surprise. The separatist state is a puppet of Russia—and an impoverished one, at that. The Kremlin has equipped DPR fighters with outdated weapons and gear—Mosin rifles and T-62 tanks, for example—and sent them on dangerous missions without adequate support.
Russian leaders seem to view DPR men as cannon fodder. “They don't count us, they leave us,” one drunk Donetsk fighter complained in a video that went viral in August. “But I want to live."
[…]
Their freshly minted Russian passports don’t even allow them to freely enter Russia.
The Donetsk Separatist Army Went To War In Ukraine With 20,000 Men. Statistically, Almost Every Single One Was Killed Or Wounded.
Their freshly minted Russian passports don’t even allow them to freely enter Russia.
We are now approaching the point where Russian killed and wounded are equal to the entire army that invaded!
I would give $100 for one of those Russian passports showing a citizen of Kherson is a Russian citizen. It may become a collector's item for my grand daughter.
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, will have to start paying their fair share of taxes.