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Seriously, It would be a good thing if putin died though, hopefully someone with a functional brain would take his place. That part of Putin died quite a while ago, only someone whose brain is just about dead could order his country to invade Ukraine.
Incorrect, The Russian advances are much more than just meters. The pro-Russian forces are also capturing entire villages. They just captured Opytine and Ivangrad in the last couple of days and are ontrack to capture the city of Bakhmut which has a population of 70,000, and the Ukrainians seem helpless to stop those advances.
I love how everybody celebrates the Ukrainian advances, while totally ignoring or blowing off the Russian advances. Which is unfortunate, because it gives you a very warped perspective of the war.
Interesting take. You choose to focus on one small city (population 70,000) that Russia has been threatening, but unable to take for months. Yet you don't bother to acknowledge the recapture of dozens of smaller Ukranian village, or much more importantly, the city of Kharkiv (population 1,400,000) in early September.
It isn't that Ukraine hasn't been able to stop the advances on Bakhmut. They have. That Russian advance is at a virtual standstill. It is a reasonably stable portion of the front, while they are reclaiming land in both the northeast and the south.
It is factual that the Russians advanced quickly over the spring, the front stabilized over the summer, and Ukraine has gained the momentum and is slowly but steadily regaining territory now. Russia has no significant manufacturing capability, and is having to pull older weapons systems from storage. Ukraine is being supplied with modern armaments by US, UK, Canada, Australia, Poland, Germany, and others.
The Russian military is staffed by reluctant, untrained, unfed, badly clothed, rebellious conscripts. The Ukrainian military is staffed by dedicated, well supplied patriotic citizens defending their homes.
This war will take time, we are not likely to see a resolution for a year or more. The Russians may even recover in some manner and regain some momentum. But that is unlikely, and at the moment, the state of the war quite clearly favors Ukraine.
Unlikely that the NATO countries will attack Russia. They may mobilize and put ground troops in Ukraine to aid in the defense of Ukrainian territory.
Since Russian troops are fighting in Ukraine, this will put NATO troops into direct confrontation with Russian troops, leading to again Nuclear war as the most likely event.
I agree that NATO won't send ground forces to Ukraine, they'd nuke before then, because they would be aware what the ultimate consequence of that action is.
The war in Ukraine has only two likely outcomes. First, Putin realizes that regardless of how many conscripts he sends into Ukraine, the Russian military will lose big time. These losses will continue until his subordinates remove him in a coup with the new leader seeking an end by withdrawing his forces. This is the best most optimistic conclusion.
Second, Putin feels backed into a corner and decides to use a tactical nuke on a Ukrainian city. NATO responds with a non-nuclear invasion of Russia which in turn convinces Putin to unleash numerous nukes which in turn leads to total nuclear war. This is the least optimistic conclusion.
One thing is for sure,
The war in Ukraine will end with several tens of thousands of dead people and hundreds of billions in infrastructure damage. If war isn't the single stupidest act by men on Earth, then please tell me what is.
Interesting take. You choose to focus on one small city (population 70,000) that Russia has been threatening, but unable to take for months. Yet you don't bother to acknowledge the recapture of dozens of smaller Ukranian village, or much more importantly, the city of Kharkiv (population 1,400,000) in early September.
It isn't that Ukraine hasn't been able to stop the advances on Bakhmut. They have. That Russian advance is at a virtual standstill. It is a reasonably stable portion of the front, while they are reclaiming land in both the northeast and the south.
It is factual that the Russians advanced quickly over the spring, the front stabilized over the summer, and Ukraine has gained the momentum and is slowly but steadily regaining territory now. Russia has no significant manufacturing capability, and is having to pull older weapons systems from storage. Ukraine is being supplied with modern armaments by US, UK, Canada, Australia, Poland, Germany, and others.
The Russian military is staffed by reluctant, untrained, unfed, badly clothed, rebellious conscripts. The Ukrainian military is staffed by dedicated, well supplied patriotic citizens defending their homes.
This war will take time, we are not likely to see a resolution for a year or more. The Russians may even recover in some manner and regain some momentum. But that is unlikely, and at the moment, the state of the war quite clearly favors Ukraine.
Russians have been making slow and incremental progress in Bakhmut. I posted this about a week earlier, now Russians have all but surrounded the town.
Bakhmut is just a town, but it's vital for controlling Donetsk, which Russians have claimed to have annexed. It would be a huge loss for Ukraine. It overlooks a highway to Lysychansk which is a key supply route for Ukraine troops operating in Donetsk.
It remains to be seen what happens to Ukraine's offensive in Kherson. So far, they have made little progress, with heavy casualties. But they're making progress. So we will see, I do expect this to fizzle out soon though, well before they recapture Kherson.
Russians have changed up command, appointing Surovikin. He will be directing the new mobilized troops.
My prediction remains, that by spring/summer 2023 we will see a cease fire in Ukraine.
Since Russian troops are fighting in Ukraine, this will put NATO troops into direct confrontation with Russian troops, leading to again Nuclear war as the most likely event.
I agree that NATO won't send ground forces to Ukraine, they'd nuke before then, because they would be aware what the ultimate consequence of that action is.
I'm just adding a reality check to a poster.
I do not agree that nuclear is the "most likely event".
Possible? Yes. Should we try to avoid it? Definitely.
Does that include defending Ukraine with conventional weapons to show the determination of NATO and the west, as an example of deterrence to Russia, China, North Korea and others? Absolutely.
The world is a dangerous place, and has been since 1945. If we simply let Russia unilaterally annex Ukraine, they will feel empowered to do the same thing to the rest of their non-NATO neighbors, and may consider attacking minor NATO members as well.
This would also empower China to invade Taiwan and smaller neighbor states.
I don't like the escalation of warfare, but the doctrine of appeasement that you support is cowardly and will cause even greater problems.
Russia never recovered from the effects of annexing Crimea. They continue to isolate themselves in a world where specialization is the norm.
The will, someday, be impoverished because of who they are.
What if Putin launches chemical or biological warfare attack against Kiev like Saddam did to the Kurds?
What then?
No one will answer this question.
The hard reality is that NATO is determined to avoid a direct confrontation with the Russian military: they will not accede to President Zelensky’s request to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine, so the best the Ukrainians can hope for is a continued supply of weaponry and other aid from the West. Even with this aid, and their admirable bravery, the Ukrainians cannot completely prevent the Russian military from continuing to bombard their cities, and kill their people, so unless they are willing to have their nation reduced to rubble, it is in their interest to come to some form of agreement with Putin that will allow him to claim some sort of victory.
I probably will get attacked for saying this, but I will say this, Maybe just
Agree that Ukraine will not become part of NATO or the EU.
Look, Putin has already exceeded the life expectancy of the average Russian male: he won’t be around forever, and whoever succeeds him at least has the potential to be less vicious and dictatorial towards their neighbors, and perhaps be prepared to recognize Ukraine as a truly independent and sovereign state, in exchange for better relations with the West.
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