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Everybody loves to joke about Russians "regrouping". But that is a normal part of warfare. Armies pull back and regroup all the time. It's not necessarily a bad thing. It's a smart military decision to retreat if they have troops in an area they can't defend. Better to move the troops back from the front line to a secondary line that can be defended better.
Most of the areas that Russians have retreated from, are not of importance to Russia anyway. The Russians are not interested in a bunch of farmland in Northern Ukraine. They are not fighting for that. They are fighting for a land bridge to Crimea. The occupied territories in the north would have just been used for negotiating leverage in exchange for Russia keeping the land bridge. But since there is obviously not going to be any negotiations, it made total sense for Russia to bug out of those areas and move their troops to the south.
Now if the Ukraine can start to liberate some of the territory annexed by Russia, and cut off the land bridge, then it's over for Russia. But until that happens, this is all meaningless. The Ukraine is just reclaiming territory that it could have gotten anyway through negotiations with Russia.
I'd be paying attention to this analysis right now. I posted this earlier. This was written on March 10th by Francis Fukuyama who accurately predicted the Russian "regrouping" in Kyiv.
Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation — there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
If the Russian lines are collapsing in a sudden and catastrophic manner....what we are seeing unfold right now is what it would pretty much look like. We need to wait and see...but the Russian milbloggers are going bonkers....what that tells me is that Putin has lost control of this situation.
Actually it is. The Russians are no doubt capturing all kinds of western weapons, which they will then be able to analyze and possibly duplicate. That has been one of the concerns of the United States from the start.
Ukrainian forces continued to make substantial gains around Lyman and in Kherson Oblast in the last 48 hours.
Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian troops made significant breakthroughs in northern Kherson Oblast between October 2 and 3.[1] Geolocated footage corroborates Russian claims that Ukrainian troops are continuing to push east of Lyman and may have broken through the Luhansk Oblast border in the direction of Kreminna.[2] As ISW has previously reported, the Russian groupings in northern Kherson Oblast and on the Lyman front were largely comprised of units that had been regarded as among Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces before the war.[3] Elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army reportedly withdrew from Lyman to rear positions near Kreminna before October 2.[4] Russian sources previously reported that elements of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV), especially the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, are active in Kherson Oblast.[5] Both the 144th Motorized Rifle Division and the 76th Guards Air Assault Division were previously lauded as some of Russia’s most elite forces, and their apparent failures to hold territory against major Ukrainian counter-offensive actions is consistent with ISW’s previous assessment that even the most elite Russian military forces are becoming increasingly degraded as the war continues. This phenomenon was also visible in the collapse of the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army earlier in the Kharkiv counter-offensive
Russian President Vladimir Putin may be continuing efforts to redirect blame for recent Russian military failures in Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian officials released Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) director Ihor Murashov from detention and are likely continuing to undermine Ukrainian control of the plant.
Key Takeaways
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Ukrainian forces have made substantial gains around Lyman and in northern Kherson Oblast over the last 24 hours. The Russian units defeated on these fronts were previously considered to be among Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces.
Russian President Vladimir Putin may use the appointment of Lieutenant-General Roman Berdnikov to the command of the Western Military District to redirect blame for recent or future Russian military failures in Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian officials released the director of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, whom they had illegally detained, and are likely continuing to undermine Ukrainian control of the plant.
Ukrainian forces made advances on the Oskil River-Kreminna line towards the Luhansk oblast border.
Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Kherson Oblast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is introducing punitive measures to target the Russian bureaucratic institutions responsible for the execution of partial mobilization.
Russian officials acknowledged that the Kremlin intends to invade, occupy, and illegally annex additional Ukrainian territory in the south and east and may alter the claimed borders of its occupied territories.
The Russian State Duma approved the Kremlin’s illegal accession treaties on October 3 and laid out the administrative timeline for integrating illegally annexed Ukrainian territory into the Russian Federation.
Bro, do you even follow this? They have. Russia is not in full territorial control of any of the 4 "annexed" provinces.
You haven't been paying attention. The Russians are meeting with the leaders of those annexed provinces to determine where the borders should be. It appears that Russia is annexing only the parts they are in full control of. Until the Ukraine offensive reaches the area of core importance to Russia, it means nothing. Like I said if they reach the Sea of Azov, and cut off the Russian land bridge, that would be a slam dunk for the Ukraine. The war would be over and Russia would have failed at their main objective. Hell if the Ukraine could even liberate some of the territory Russia controlled before the war, that would be a big win for Ukraine. But taking some small cities that Russia doesn't even care about is not going to win this war.
I'd be paying attention to this analysis right now. I posted this earlier. This was written on March 10th by Francis Fukuyama who accurately predicted the Russian "regrouping" in Kyiv.
If the Russian lines are collapsing in a sudden and catastrophic manner....what we are seeing unfold right now is what it would pretty much look like. We need to wait and see...but the Russian milbloggers are going bonkers....what that tells me is that Putin has lost control of this situation.
The Russian approach to taking a city is to lay waste to it with artillery, then send cannon fodder ahead in “reconnaissance by fire.” If defenses remain, sure you lose some cheap infantry, but artillery has a better idea of where those defenses remain and it opens up again. Rinse, lather, and repeat until no resistance remains. It’s somewhat effective for a country that doesn’t give a rat’s ass about the value of life,
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Ukraine does it differently. They avoid direct urban warfare, cutting off a town’s supply lines until just one road out is left. This forces Russia to abandon hardened defensive positions lest they remain trapped, a la Mariupol. Thing is, armor is not the best escape vehicle—it breaks down and is slow, using up a great deal of diesel that may already be in short supply. So it’s easier to abandon the heavy stuff, steal some civilian vehicles, and hightail it out of dodge at top speed. Ukrainian artillery can target those roads, and many won’t make it out, but many do. End result, towns like Lyman are liberated with very little damage to their infrastructure. Not only does this encircle-and-starve-out approach save Ukrainian lives, but it moves the front much faster than Russia’s wasteful rinse-lather-repeat approach.
And here’s the bonus—Ukraine doesn’t even need to stick around for a town to surrender. It can leave a blocking force behind to pin down the Russian garrison as the spearhead races ahead. In the Kherson blitzkrieg, there were towns well in the rear of the advance that Ukraine didn’t mop up for days.
Because there needs to be some kind of end that isn’t endless war or nuclear war. They should remain willing to take the diplomatic route. There are some very pro-Russian areas of the country that it may make sense to concede for peace.
There needs to be an end that doesn't include Russia being able to just take parts of a neighboring country by force.
Polls before the war showed about 20% preferred to part or Russia.
Everybody loves to joke about Russians "regrouping". But that is a normal part of warfare. Armies pull back and regroup all the time. It's not necessarily a bad thing. It's a smart military decision to retreat if they have troops in an area they can't defend. Better to move the troops back from the front line to a secondary line that can be defended better.
It can be a smart military decision and a "bad thing" at the same time. Nobody wants to be unable to defend the territory they have taken, it means mistakes were made.
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Originally Posted by Cloudy Dayz
Most of the areas that Russians have retreated from, are not of importance to Russia anyway. The Russians are not interested in a bunch of farmland in Northern Ukraine.
Is this like the new version of the "Russia didn't actually want Kiev" spin? Russia didn't actually want the land the invaded, yeah right.
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Originally Posted by Cloudy Dayz
Now if the Ukraine can start to liberate some of the territory annexed by Russia
Yeah when will Ukraine get started in liberating some of the territory annexed by Russia. It hasn't happened since like, today.
You haven't been paying attention. The Russians are meeting with the leaders of those annexed provinces to determine where the borders should be. It appears that Russia is annexing only the parts they are in full control of.
Actually Russia isn't annexing any territory, it's not internationally recognized and it's farce.
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Originally Posted by Cloudy Dayz
But taking some small cities that Russia doesn't even care about is not going to win this war.
Russia is losing all this manpower and equipment defending areas they don't care about. Uh, yeah right.
It can be a smart military decision and a "bad thing" at the same time. Nobody wants to be unable to defend the territory they have taken, it means mistakes were made.
Is this like the new version of the "Russia didn't actually want Kiev" spin? Russia didn't actually want the land the invaded, yeah right.
The only reason they wanted Kiev was to overthrow the government and set-up a puppet regime, favorable to Russia. I believe that was a longshot goal for them. They gave up on it very quickly. It was also a diversionary tactic that forced the Ukraine to defend the capital, while the Russians were grabbing the important territory in Southern Ukraine.
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Originally Posted by lieqiang
Yeah when will Ukraine get started in liberating some of the territory annexed by Russia. It hasn't happened since like, today.
The annexed areas have not been defined. The Russians are meeting with the leaders of those territories to set the borders. It appears the annexation only includes the area the Russians have total control over. Until the Ukrainian offensive reaches the core areas important to Russia, it's just a step in the right direction.
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