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Current situation in Russia can be easily described by the situation in the pre war USSR in 1928-1941. When purges were daily issues. When the amount of sabotage was beyond any measure.
You do realize that, when the USSR was dismantled in 1987 and USA advisors, 1100 of them, INSIDE KREMLIN and American embassy, dictated the new constitution and did interviews for any importance political, economical and military position, approving only those, who matched the US template? That likes of Gaidar and Chubais and Nabiulina, along with their counterparts in the army, did and do their best, to " prove the trust" in them and ruin every aspect of that country? Attempting, what Trotsky failed to do - turn Russia into raw materials colony of the West.
Purges, going on now, are nowhere even enough and, SMO was a litmus paper, to show who is who and reveal their true colors.
Thing about Russia is, it has to go through such periods ever so often. Historically, it always had purges, starting with Ivan the Great Oprichniki. That's how they are. They trust foreigners, let them in, stay patient, patient, patient - then cut the sore, bleeding in the process, and rebuild the country. They had it done many times before and will do it again.
Previous rebuilds depended upon a growing population and growing industrialization.
Population of Russia will never grow again, and industrialization has already happened. In fact, Russia is now in the process of de-industrializing because of the isolating effects of sanctions and boycotts. They will even reach a point when, like Venezuela, they are unable to process enough of their own natural resources to provide for their country.
Today, the Russian stock market reached a low last seen in 2017.
If Russia were to suddenly leave Ukraine tomorrow...
Who won? Who lost?
I would say that Ukraine certainly lost.
Their infrastructure is in ruins.
The UK definitely seems to be on the losing side too. Their currency is at all time lows and they're in the midst of a deep recession. Ditto for the EU/Euro currency. What are the Europeans going to do for energy when the Russians refuse to sell it to them?
Who is going to pay to rebuild Ukraine? The Russians won't. And they won't be held accountable either bc they are a permanent member of the UN.
Putin has basically reconstructed a new East/West divide in just a matter of months. They're out of SWIFT and have been working around it with a system of their own, recognized by China. The unipolar world is over and a new century long struggle is set up and that's even if the Russians were to leave Ukraine tomorrow.
Considering that Serbia is usually pretty tight with Russia because Russia generally sided with them over the Yugoslavian uncivil war, that’s rather telling.
I think it has to do with Serbia's situation with Kosovo. If Serbia accepts those referendums as legit, then it would blow away their arguments against Kosovo's independence, which is still not universally accepted, even by some EU countries. I can't see China accepting it either, for the same reason (in their case, Taiwan).
Kazakhstan has been giving Russia the middle finger ever since the invasion began, so their stance isn't surprising, and the Russian-led CSTO is pretty much dead now. Armenia requested CSTO help after Azerbaijan recently attacked them, and Russia basically told Armenia to f**k off. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (both CSTO members) are throwing hands, and Lukashenko is still rebuffing Putin's attempts to get Belarusian troops to join the war against Ukraine, due to the war's unpopularity among the Belarusian people. If Lukashenko forced Belarus invasion, that would be the end of his reign. Given that Russian troops are a little tied up right now, Putin wouldn't be able to save Lukashenko's ass like he did in 2020.
If Russia were to suddenly leave Ukraine tomorrow...
Who won? Who lost?
I would say that Ukraine certainly lost.
Their infrastructure is in ruins.
The UK definitely seems to be on the losing side too. Their currency is at all time lows and they're in the midst of a deep recession. Ditto for the EU/Euro currency. What are the Europeans going to do for energy when the Russians refuse to sell it to them?
Who is going to pay to rebuild Ukraine? The Russians won't. And they won't be held accountable either bc they are a permanent member of the UN.
Putin has basically reconstructed a new East/West divide in just a matter of months. They're out of SWIFT and have been working around it with a system of their own, recognized by China. The unipolar world is over and a new century long struggle is set up and that's even if the Russians were to leave Ukraine tomorrow.
The entire world has turned against Russia, even their own citizens. Just wait for the body count of Russians in this senseless war. Yes they have inflicted enormous damage on Ukraine but This has set back Russia’s military back decades. The world will help Ukraine when this ends, Russia is a national embarrassment.
We have heavily sanctioned Russia, we can try to insist everybody follow our sanctions, although that could also be counterproductive if nations defy the US. There are moves the US can make but many would lead to direct war with Russia.
What types of moves do you think the US can still make that won't lead to direct war with Russia?
You're talking about sanctions. I'm talking about military options in the event Putin uses tactical nukes in Ukraine. There's plenty we can do to hurt him that doesn't involve us retaliating with nukes. He has no idea what true conventional warfare pain means yet. He's facing a brave and resourceful Ukrainian army (still 2nd tier) armed with a relatively small hodgepodge of Western weaponry and yet they're kicking his ass. We project power around the world better than anyone since the emperor Trajan. We could end Russia's Black Sea fleet. Cap all of its air power over Ukraine and a combination of B2 strikes and sea/air/submarine launched cruise missiles could destroy every rail, fuel and ammo depot standing in the way of the Ukrainians taking the Donbas and Crimea.
The entire world has turned against Russia, even their own citizens. Just wait for the body count of Russians in this senseless war. Yes they have inflicted enormous damage on Ukraine but This has set back Russia’s military back decades. The world will help Ukraine when this ends, Russia is a national embarrassment.
That's code for American tax dollars (we usually pay for everything).
Even if we rebuild Ukraine, the East/West divide won't be re-knit. And the Europeans will still be stuck in their position, totally reliant on foreign energy. However, they won't be getting it from Russia. That will have a destabilizing wave around the world, in places that are rich in energy.
You're talking about sanctions. I'm talking about military options in the event Putin uses tactical nukes in Ukraine. There's plenty we can do to hurt him that doesn't involve us retaliating with nukes. He has no idea what true conventional warfare pain means yet. He's facing a brave and resourceful Ukrainian army (still 2nd tier) armed with a relatively small hodgepodge of Western weaponry and yet they're kicking his ass. We project power around the world better than anyone since the emperor Trajan. We could end Russia's Black Sea fleet. Cap all of its air power over Ukraine and a combination of B2 strikes and sea/air/submarine launched cruise missiles could destroy every rail, fuel and ammo depot standing in the way of the Ukrainians taking the Donbas and Crimea.
Lol. And where are you planning to be during these events, or more precisely, during the events that will follow? No basements in Texas, for the most part
Serbia and Kazakhstan announced that they would not recognize Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territory.
Not surprising. Even if Belarus were to ship troops to Ukraine, said dictator would risk his own mass revolt.
Nothing starts a coup/revolt like an unpopular war that no one wants to fight. If you want to get toppled in 5 minutes, tell your oppressed citizens they have to fight and die for Putin. Even central Asian dictators seen that dumb.
There was little motivation with the existing supposedly top line troops, these draftees will be even worse. No Russian wants to die for this senseless war. Putin was not military he was KGB and has no idea what he is doing, as we saw in Chernobyl too many yes men feeding him bad information. I would love to listen in on those optimistic military briefings.
I wonder how the population will react to all those body bags coming home and the liking term care for the wounded, how are those Russian veterans hospitals.
There was a quote from a Ukrainian General something like “We defeated their professional army, now we will defeat their amateur army…”.
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