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Old 04-15-2021, 09:10 AM
 
Location: Boston, MA
5,391 posts, read 3,313,219 times
Reputation: 7054

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Quote:
Originally Posted by tolovefromANFIELD View Post
It's not a word salad, and you're being purposefully dense. You quoted a metric, used it out of context, and then compared it to two outcomes, neither of, which are true nor relatable.
Yes exactly. Taking two concepts but at the end of the day nobody's really arguing.

Trump had a low approval rating.
Trump lost the popular vote twice.
Trump won the electoral college vote once.

I'm still not sure what the OP's point is. The argument that someone can lose the popular vote and still win the electoral college? It has been proven in the past. Nobody is disagreeing with the facts presented here.
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Old 04-15-2021, 09:15 AM
 
Location: Boston, MA
5,391 posts, read 3,313,219 times
Reputation: 7054
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doncicmavsfan View Post
The point is that we can’t look at approval rating as an indicator of how a candidate will do as far as winning a national election.

During the entire Trump phenomenon we routinely saw people saying “Trump can’t possibly win — his approval rating is only ~38%!!”.

Fact is — a candidate can routinely have polling data indicating 35-40% approval yet still be very competitive in national elections.
The only people I heard crying about polling were Trump followers (biased, fake news, yada yada). I think any rational person realizes that you can't look at an approval rating and infer a win/loss.

Any candidate can outperform polling data because if the question isn't "who are you voting for" the statistic is meaningless if you're trying to project it into a for/against vote. As I posted further upstream, I can disapprove of Trump's performance and still vote for him because I feel he's the better candidate.

I have a feeling that as long as this country remains deadlocked any Democrat and any Republican will outperform polling data.
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Old 04-15-2021, 09:17 AM
 
379 posts, read 157,456 times
Reputation: 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by BoSox 15 View Post
Yes exactly. Taking two concepts but at the end of the day nobody's really arguing.

Trump had a low approval rating.
Trump lost the popular vote twice.
Trump won the electoral college vote once.

I'm still not sure what the OP's point is. The argument that someone can lose the popular vote and still win the electoral college? It has been proven in the past. Nobody is disagreeing with the facts presented here.
It’s very simple to those not purposely being dense:

Low approval ratings are no longer an indicator of how competitive a candidate will be in national elections.

As always, popular vote is irrelevant.

According to 538, Trump’s approval rating trend line is lower than almost any POTUS of the last ~80 years. It’s somewhat similar to Jimmy Carter, but Carter obviously lost in an epic blowout whereas Trump was extremely competitive.
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Old 04-15-2021, 09:26 AM
 
379 posts, read 157,456 times
Reputation: 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by BoSox 15 View Post
The only people I heard crying about polling were Trump followers (biased, fake news, yada yada). I think any rational person realizes that you can't look at an approval rating and infer a win/loss.

Any candidate can outperform polling data because if the question isn't "who are you voting for" the statistic is meaningless if you're trying to project it into a for/against vote. As I posted further upstream, I can disapprove of Trump's performance and still vote for him because I feel he's the better candidate.

I have a feeling that as long as this country remains deadlocked any Democrat and any Republican will outperform polling data.
It would seem that polling data relative to actual results would indicate those people had reason to question polling data.

Jimmy Carter and H.W. Bush had similar approval rating trend lines going into their 2nd runs. However, Carter and Bush were both blown out.

Therefore, one may conclude that the actual polling data may have simply been inaccurate for Trump.
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Old 04-15-2021, 09:31 AM
 
Location: King County, WA
16,120 posts, read 6,824,535 times
Reputation: 13668
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doncicmavsfan View Post
Trump has won a national election and lost one by ~44k votes.

All with a ~35% approval rating.

Thus, approval rating is mostly irrelevant.
It's often indirectly relevant in terms of Congressional seats won during a Presidential election.
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Old 04-15-2021, 09:32 AM
 
Location: NC
11,251 posts, read 8,421,984 times
Reputation: 12555
Quote:
Originally Posted by BoSox 15 View Post

I'm still not sure what the OP's point is.
I'm not sure what the intended point was, but the point made was that the electoral college is not reflective of the will of the American people. We learned (or confirmed) in 2016 that gaming, not cheating, the election to win the swing states is a tactic to allow a candidate to win an election without winning the popular vote. OP's post just confirms that is the case.

One person, one vote, and the R's don't stand a chance in national elections. Fact.
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Old 04-15-2021, 09:34 AM
 
8,950 posts, read 3,027,779 times
Reputation: 5189
Quote:
Originally Posted by Myghost View Post
I'm not sure what the intended point was, but the point made was that the electoral college is not reflective of the will of the American people. We learned (or confirmed) in 2016 that gaming, not cheating, the election to win the swing states is a tactic to allow a candidate to win an election without winning the popular vote. OP's post just confirms that is the case.

One person, one vote, and the R's don't stand a chance in national elections. Fact.
This country is a republic of states.

It's been that way for 220 + years.

We have 51 popular votes, not one.

If you don't like it, move to a country where it is simply "majority rules"
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Old 04-15-2021, 09:51 AM
 
Location: NC
11,251 posts, read 8,421,984 times
Reputation: 12555
Quote:
Originally Posted by paracord View Post
This country is a republic of states.

It's been that way for 220 + years.

We have 51 popular votes, not one.

If you don't like it, move to a country where it is simply "majority rules"
So if there is just one thing I don't like about the USA, I should leave? That seems silly. In my opinion, it's the greatest nation on earth, but that doesn't make it perfect.

Should people who don't like current POTUS leave too? How about if you don't like Roe v Wade? Should people feel that way leave too?

Question for you: If everyone in our country who had one thing they don't like, were to leave, how many people do you think would be left? Would you still be here?


Think about what you say. And while you're thinking, consider that our founding fathers also wrote in a process to amend the constitution. Don't like it? LEAVE!
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Old 04-15-2021, 09:53 AM
 
3,110 posts, read 1,341,666 times
Reputation: 1775
The approval rating polls were lies or made up just as the state polls were. Everyone knew Trump wasn’t down 5 in Florida or 17 in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The Dems had manufactured polls in hopes it would depress GOP turnout. His real approval rating was 48-53% or so as Rasmussen showed all summer last year
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Old 04-15-2021, 09:54 AM
 
8,950 posts, read 3,027,779 times
Reputation: 5189
Quote:
Originally Posted by Myghost View Post
So if there is just one thing I don't like about the USA, I should leave? That seems silly. In my opinion, it's the greatest nation on earth, but that doesn't make it perfect.

Should people who don't like current POTUS leave too? How about if you don't like Roe v Wade? Should people feel that way leave too?

Question for you: If everyone in our country who had one thing they don't like, were to leave, how many people do you think would be left? Would you still be here?


Think about what you say. And while you're thinking, consider that our founding fathers also wrote in a process to amend the constitution. Don't like it? LEAVE!
I'm sure there are many things you don't like about the USA.

If that's your biggest one, you are free to leave. Not sure why you'd be so offended by that.

And i'm not sure why you brought up "one person, one vote." The USA was NEVER FOUNDED ON THAT.

It would be the same thing if you said we were founded on the principles of Marx. Again UNTRUE and not intended to be that way.

Correct, we have amendments. Changing from the electoral college would never pass.
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