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However, here's my reasoning with what each campaign did to win or lose:
I think Biden is a slower, past his prime, low energy candidate with years of baggage in the corrupt swamp known as DC. Also, Kamala Harris is divisive and not as likable as a lot would like to see.
On the other hand, Trump can be extremely divisive, come across petty, rude and a bit unpresidential, many times.
If Trump loses, it will be due to the mainstream media so against him for 4 years, and Trump's divisive behavior.
If Biden loses, it will be due to the BLM violent, deadly and overly destructive rioting and looting got completely out of control, and lasted 3-4 months, and by the time Biden's team realized it, support had eroded and folks were not on board with lawlessness.
But, I think Trump holds onto most of his base, and adds some black and hispanic support. He may win with a bit less electoral college votes than 2016, but he wins.
Biden can lose PA and FL and still have a path to 270, but it gets pretty dicey without one of those two states. It would require AZ or NC or GA or OH to go blue. I'm betting NV goes blue, regardless.
Yes, but I don't think Trump can win without winning Florida. Our mail in and early votes can be counted early, so we will be able to give actual votes right after the polls close. If Trump loses Florida tonight, he's toast. If he wins and wins North Carolina which I read can count mail in and early votes early as well, it's going to be a dog fight.
You make some valid points, however you didn't mention one very important factor. I couldn't bring myself to vote for either Trump in Clinton back in 2016. It was a corrupt member of the good old boy political machine (Clinton) vs an uncouth, corrupt political neophyte. I was positive Trump would lose and I honestly thought it would be business as usual after the election - like it has been since the first time I voted almost 40 years ago. I don't like Trump any more now than I did 4 years ago, but I voted for him - and it was a very easy decision. The behavior of the Democratic party over the last 4 years has been appalling. In addition, their support of ultra left and progressive policies is terrifying. As such, I think the turnout for both Dems and Repubs will be very high. I still think Biden will probably win - but it won't because of high Dem turnout - because high Repub turnout will balance it out.
Just a question from a nosy old woman. Political parties have factions that go from one extreme to another. They have all kinds of infighting among their adherents. When I was a republican, their mainstream considered me an extremist.
While not a democrat, I would be considered the blue dog kind. That said, the left wingers are feeling their oats these days since AOC. Bernie never was a democrat and I'm puzzled they permitted him to run as one. Also, IMO, if there was enough support for a progressive to win, he would have formed his own independent group like my hero, Ross Perot did.
Question, how far off the deep end would republicans need to go for you to consider their behavior appalling?
BTW, last election DS and I knew in July that Trump would win. This time, I have no clue.
Regardless of who wins, I just hope this is the last time it will come down to two people in their 70s to be the President, we need younger people (at most in their 60s!) to choose from!
Trump will set the record for the most votes for a Republican ever. I would put $500 on that but Vegas don’t do legal political wagering and I don’t trust foreign sites.
Also confidant he’ll finish with 320 electorates. The dem riot party needs some serious remodeling.
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