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Some upsets are considered likely (Collins in Maine, McSally in Arizona).
Tillis in NC will probably be in close race.
Ernst losing in Iowa is possible.
Bullock winning in MT is perhaps still possible but less likely than it looked a few months ago.
I wouldnt call Collins likely, I would say its Lean D, we are a good ways away from likely.
McSally however, JESUS, we have to start talking about her being a horrible candidate and possibly being blown out. That doesnt mean the Presidential will be the same, it just means she is horrible and those polls with her being down 10 could be possible.
As others have said, Tillis vs Cunningham is the closest to generic D vs R and its not looking good for Tillis. The strength of the governor there helps too.
Ernst keeps making rookie mistakes, and at this point, it truly is a toss up.
We have had 7 polls in Montana from 6 different polling services, 3 with Bullock in the lead, 3 with Daines in the lead, 1 tie.
There are 3 state wide races there; House, Senate and Gov. All have the Dems within 2 points on average.No one knows whats going on there.
Democrats will win Maine, North Carolina, Montana, Iowa, Arizona, Colorado, and the main Georgia race. However they will lose Arizona. That gives us a 53-47 Senate in favor of the Democrats.
Republicans are pretty much certain to oick up the Jones seat in Alabama.
Democrats are pretty certain to pick up McSally's seat in Arizona and Gardner's seat in Colorado.
Tills's seat in North Carolina and Collins 's seat in Maine have a decent chance to flip and lean Democratic, though I think Collins has a better chance to hold on than Tills.
The Iowa and Montana seats are pretty much tossups at this point.
The two Georgia seats are ones that are extremely competitive as well. The Special is certainly headed to a runoff so that adds a caveat as well.
The Kansas seat is one to keep an eye out on. The Republicans should hold it, especially with Marshall as the GOP nominee instead of Kobach, but is one to watch.
North Carolina, Colorado, and Arizona will go to Dems. I think Maine favors the Dem also.
I think Iowa, Georgia and Montana will go to Rs (but the Georgia special could be close), the R will likely win though because Dem turnout in runoffs is not good.
Alabama is a clear flip for Rs.
All told, if Biden wins I think the chances favor Dems getting at least 50 seats, which would give them control.
The Democrats are going to take the Presidency and both houses. And then the Republican legislators AND all those who have blankedly supported trump are going to have no one to blame but themselves. There are so many legitimate Republicans that we could have had.
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