Guess which major U.S. metropolitan area led in Q1 2011 housing appreciation? (Braddock: maintenance, costs)

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by gameguy56

There is a huge glut of empty homes and vacant lots in Pittsburgh. We have plenty of room

Indeed, so what is up with the appreciation?

I agree that there is plenty of potential supply still available, so what this looks like to me is a case where the supply response just isn't fast enough to keep up with the pace of the demand growth. Basically, it takes time and money to convert vacant structures and lots into marketable housing units, and I think the freezing of the housing-related financial markets have kept the pace of new supply in Pittsburgh from accelerating as you would ordinarily expect.

I also don't expect this to last. Eventually the money will start flowing more quickly, and new units will start coming through the pipeline more quickly, and at that point appreciation should moderate to a more normal pace. Unless we get into a speculative bubble--and I really hope we do not.

Edit: Sorry, one caveat. Average appreciation can still stay a little high to the extent it includes neighborhoods where significant numbers of properties are being renovated.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by AaronClark

The problem is that all of these mill towns like Braddock are extremely disconnected from the city. No matter how many people try to move here here, without adequate and fast transportation connections they'll continue to stay empty. People will continue to cram into the core of the city where quick transit exists. Prices will continue to rise.

Fortunately we still have a lot of potential supply within the existing transportation grid. But because it takes time to expand rapid transit networks, we really should be working on that right now.

Unfortunately, "right now" may have to wait for another election or two at the state and federal levels.

[AaronPGH]

^ True. In a way, it could also be nice to see the core completely fill up & be rehabbed first, before we start spreading out to the mill towns.

[MathmanMathman]

Originally Posted by AaronClark

^ True. In a way, it could also be nice to see the core completely fill up & be rehabbed first, before we start spreading out to the mill towns.

If the mill towns are somewhat depopulated, might be a good time now to acquire right-of-ways where needed even for eventual light rail lines. Land costs would be cheaper and less social upheaval.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by AaronClark

^ True. In a way, it could also be nice to see the core completely fill up & be rehabbed first, before we start spreading out to the mill towns.

In many respects that could be a good pattern for the overall economy and environment of the area. The biggest potential problem with that approach is that a lot of poorer people could get driven out of the rapid public transit footprint, which would reduce their quality of life and make it harder for them to get out of poverty.

There are things we can do--and in some cases are already doing--to reduce that effect. But one of the reasons we need to be expanding our rapid public transit network right now is to make sure there is always some affordable neighborhoods within that footprint. So in my view it is a question of balance--encouraging core redevelopment is good, but we also need to keep a step ahead of that process with smart public policies and investments.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by MathmanMathman

If the mill towns are somewhat depopulated, might be a good time now to acquire right-of-ways where needed even for eventual light rail lines. Land costs would be cheaper and less social upheaval.

Most (maybe all) of the mill towns along the rivers have existing rail lines, many of those lightly used, if at all.

[MathmanMathman]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

Most (maybe all) of the mill towns along the rivers have existing rail lines, many of those lightly used, if at all.

Yeah, but who owns them? In Atlanta we are trying to make a Beltline around the city using the surrounding rail lines and issues of ownership etc are coming up. The railroads don't necessarily want to give them up or even share them.

Those Pittsburgh rail lines mostly were to serve industry. There might be better light rail routes than the existing rail lines. It would be a good time now to secure the existing ones you want and plan for new ones if needed.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by MathmanMathman

Yeah, but who owns them? In Atlanta we are trying to make a Beltline around the city using the surrounding rail lines and issues of ownership etc are coming up. The railroads don't necessarily want to give them up or even share them.

Indeed, but I think that clarifies the issue. It is less a matter of needing to deal with local landowners, and more a matter of figuring out how to deal productively with the railroad companies.

Those Pittsburgh rail lines mostly were to serve industry. There might be better light rail routes than the existing rail lines. It would be a good time now to secure the existing ones you want and plan for new ones if needed.

For commuter rail purposes most of the existing lines should be fine. Heavy industry was taking up the flatlands near the rivers, precisely where people are going to want to put new residential developments.

Again, though, I agree now is a good time to be working with the railroad companies on these issues.

[MathmanMathman]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

IFor commuter rail purposes most of the existing lines should be fine. Heavy industry was taking up the flatlands near the rivers, precisely where people are going to want to put new residential developments.

Again, though, I agree now is a good time to be working with the railroad companies on these issues.

Still, the railroads might not want to deal and give them up so be prepared for that too. I don't know the state of communications now but in the recent past, communication companies buried their lines along rail routes because it solved their right-of-way issues and paid railroads for that access. Railroads might see those lines as still valuable to retain.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by MathmanMathman

Still, the railroads might not want to deal and give them up so be prepared for that too.

Absolutely. In fact we know that NS specifically has been reluctant in the past to participate in such projects. It may take some arm-twisting.