Pittsburgh Metropolitan Area: Will we ever see another county added to the MSA? (New Castle: house, employment)

[Evergrey]

The Pittsburgh Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is a 7-county region with the city of Pittsburgh as its hub. The Census Bureau defines the Metropolitan Area by establishing the county or counties that contain the urbanized area of Pittsburgh. Outlying counties are added if they meet a commuting threshold, demonstrating regional economic interconnectivity. If there is a commuter interchange of at least 25%, the outlying county will be included in the MSA.

The Pittsburgh MSA is the 22nd largest in the U.S. with a population of 2,356,285. The area of the 7-county region is 5,706 sq mi, about 12% of the area of Pennsylvania.


source: wikipedia.org

The Census Bureau devised its metropolitan area measurement in 1950. At that time, the Pittsburgh MSA consisted of 4 counties (2010 populations):

Allegheny (1,223,348)
Beaver (170,539)
Washington (207,820)
Westmoreland (365,169)

The 1950 MSA would have a population of 1,966,876 today.

In 1983, Fayette County (136,606) was added.

The 1983 MSA would have a population of 2,103,482 today.

In 1993, Butler County (183,862) was added.

The 1993 MSA would have a population of 2,287,344 today.

In 2003, Armstrong County (68,941) was added, forming the present 7-county MSA.

...

Lawrence County (pop. 91,108) is designated as the New Castle Micropolitan Area (featuring an urban cluster of 10k-49k at its core), and is included in the Pittsburgh-New Castle Consolidated Statistical Area (CSA). This is a broader statistical region that groups together adjacent Metropolitan and Micropolitan areas if they meet a certain commuter interchange threshold (which is lower than 25%, though I'm not certain what it is). The additional 250 sq mi of Lawrence County gives the Pittsburgh CSA a population of 2,447,393.

Is there the potential for further territorial expansion? I imagine inter-county commuter interchanges are available somewhere... but I don't have them.

...

I tend to think the Pittsburgh MSA is at its territorial maximum. One reason is that Pennsylvania counties tend to be on the larger size in area... especially compared to nearby states like Ohio, West Virginia and Virginia. Many of the outer regions of the "suburban counties" are quite rural and lightly populated... featuring rather weak connectivity to the urban core of the region. This outer buffer zone includes areas like Butler Co. north of Butler, Washington County south of Washington, the Laurel Highlands of eastern Westmoreland and Fayette and Armstrong beyond Kittanning. The only corridor of high density population extending beyond the MSA borders is through Beaver County toward New Castle... and East Liverpool, OH. Weirton-Steubenville is closer to Downtown Pittsburgh (and notably, the Airport region) than several key satellite cities in the MSA... and has strong highway access... though there is a bit of an empty gap between Imperial and Weirton.

At 5,706 sq mi it seems unlikely that this region of 2.3-2.5 million could extend much further... that is a vast area... however, similarly populated MSAs like St. Louis and Kansas City occupy areas almost twice as large.

...

I suppose the candidates for future inclusion in the Pittsburgh MSA are as follows:

1. Lawrence County (91,108) - This would probably be the most likely county to join as it's already demonstrating significant commuter interchange to qualify for CSA inclusion. I assume Lawrence primarily interchanges with Beaver... and developments like the Shell cracker could help increase the interchange. Lawrence commuters are probably also attracted in significant numbers to points north... like Youngstown, Sharon and Grove City.

2. Indiana County (88,880) - Included in the Southwestern Pennsylvania Commission's 10-county region, I've heard some people talk about Indiana County's inevitable inclusion for some time now. However, I think it is highly unlikely as the county is rather distant from the core of the MSA. The population and economic center of the county, the Borough of Indiana, is in the center of the county and inconveniently located in relation to the major centers of Pittsburgh MSA. Inclusion would largely depend on Indiana/Westmoreland interchange... a border that is lightly populated.

3. Greene County (38,686) - The annoying county in the southwestern corner of PA that somehow escapes the clutches of Metro Pittsburgh, Greene ranks alongside Fayette as one of the most impoverished and distressed counties in the state. A member of SPC, I-79 provides Greene with easy access to employment centers to the north in booming Washington County. There could also be interchange with nearby portions of southwestern Allegheny... and across the river in Fayette. I don't think Greene will be admitted to the MSA anytime soon, however.

That's it for Pennsylvania counties... anything else is just too far away. However, there is the possibility that Pittsburgh MSA could extend west and become a multi-state metro!

4. Weirton-Steubenville MSA (124,000) - I imagine the entire MSA would have to be included due to their own internal commuter interchanges... and in fact... would probably most likely be part of a Pittsburgh-Weirton CSA as a first step. This "twin city" metro along the Ohio River includes the slender Northern Panhandle of West Virginia counties Brooke and Hancock and the Ohio county of Jefferson. Steubenville/Jefferson County has been advertising itself as "the Burb of the Burgh" for years now... and the metro's population center of Weirton and Steubenville is surprisingly close to the urban core of Pittsburgh... and especially the airport and the massive amounts of office space in the Parkway West and I-79 corridors. These counties probably won't melt into the Pittsburgh MSA, but I think a CSA is possible.

And that's probably it in terms of potential additions...

IMO, the most that could realistically happen would be Lawrence to the MSA and Weirton-Steub to the CSA... which would result in an MSA population of 2,447,000 and a CSA population of 2,571,000.

[Craziaskowboi]

I think the Weirton/Steubenville MSA could be added to the Pittsburgh CSA soon.

[BrianTH]

So these definitions were tweaked a bit in 2010, but here is how I believe it works now:

For MSAs, first you identify the central county or counties (this is the county or counties where the core urbanized areas are located). Then outlying counties are included if either 25% of the workers residing in the outlying county work in the central county/counties, or 25% of the workers employed in the outlying county reside in the central county/counties.

For combining MSAs into CSAs, you don't look just at the central counties, but at employment interchange between the two MSAs as a whole (employment interchange is the sum of the percentage of workers living in the smaller entity and working in the larger entity and the percentage of employment in the smaller entity accounted for by workers living in the larger entity). If there is at least 15% interchange, they will be combined into a CSA (note this definition eliminates a subjective element that used to exist when the interchange was in the 15-25% range). So, potentially CSAs can be formed when their outlying counties have enough interchange, even if a lot of that interchange doesn't reach into one or the other central area.

Using these criteria, I am not sure we will see another county added to the MSA any time soon. However, I could see the CSA expanding, particularly if we set up better transportation links. For example, I think a fast train between Pittsburgh and Youngstown could potentially help bring that MSA into the CSA.

[Blackbeauty212]

If Pittsburgh had a much more robust regional transit infrastructure, it would have already taken in more counties....I would be surprised if parts of Far eastern Oh, as well far western MD and WV Pandhandle soon start to bleed into the CSA atleast

[escilade18]

With Brian's definition of CSA (if I understand correctly) I could see Greene County eventually joining the CSA, but it is a stretch to join the MSA. From Waynesburg to Bridgeville is about an hour in perfect conditions and unless the job is worth the commute, people won't make it

[lifepgh2op]

Originally Posted by escilade18

From Waynesburg to Bridgeville is about an hour in perfect conditions and unless the job is worth the commute, people won't make it

I have a friend that commutes from Robinson to Waynesburg daily for work. 45 minutes.

I was always surprised Greene County wasn't a part of the metro.

Agreed about Steubenville/Weirton...although most people have NO idea how close they really are to us. They hear "Ohio" and immediately think of the Youngstown area and the turnpike and think at least an hour away.

[SammyKhalifa]

I grew up in Jefferson County, OH (Steubenville area) and we definitely considered OURSELVES part of the Pittsburgh area, at least. Most of their local TV, etc., is Pittsburgh. "Pittsburgh" concert venue, Star Lake Amphitheatre, is way closer to Weirton/Steubenville than any part of Pittsburgh. People live there and work in Pittsburgh (or the airport area, most likely). I can drive from my parents' house to Mt Washington in 40 minutes. It's about the same distance from downtown Pittsburgh as Greensburg or Beaver Falls or Butler. So yeah, I'd add Jefferson County along with Brooke and Hancock Counties in WV. I don't know why they're not already (other than the state lines probably placing us in a different region (Midwest) and screwing up peoples' metrics/perceptions).

[SammyKhalifa]

Just to Illustrate (using Google maps) using a generic "Pittsburgh PA" road address (looks like the system chose to use downtown at the corner of 6th and Grant):

Washington, PA to Pittsburgh PA
30.3 mi, 41 mins
In current traffic: 41 mins
I-79 N

Butler PA to Pittsburgh
33.0 mi, 46 mins
PA-8 S

From Beaver Falls PA
40.5 mi, 50 mins
In current traffic: 50 mins
I-76 E and I-279 S

from Butler
33.0 mi, 46 mins
No traffic information
PA-8 S

Greensburg
32.6 mi, 46 mins
No traffic information
US-22 W and I-376 W

Weirton WV
37.8 mi, 43 mins
In current traffic: 47 mins
US-22 E and I-376 E

Waynesburg PA
52.5 mi, 1 hour 7 mins
In current traffic: 1 hour 7 mins
I-79 N

Steubenville
38.7 mi, 46 mins
In current traffic: 51 mins
US-22 E and I-376 E

[Evergrey]

Originally Posted by escilade18

With Brian's definition of CSA (if I understand correctly) I could see Greene County eventually joining the CSA, but it is a stretch to join the MSA. From Waynesburg to Bridgeville is about an hour in perfect conditions and unless the job is worth the commute, people won't make it

I believe in order for Greene to join Pittsburgh in a CSA, Greene would have to be declared a Micropolitan Area... which requires an urban cluster of at least 10,000. Waynesburg Urban Cluster currently is at 8,655.

[speagles84]

I agree with you completely. Lawrence County will be the first county to join the MSA, its already part of the CSA. I think the counties in the panhandle of West Virginia and far east Ohio may, once the southern beltway gets completed. It will help the infrastructure of east-west movement throughout the MSA. Greene... ehh I don't believe it will, simply on the fact that its 1) losing population still, 2) has no real job activity and 3) is the farthest of the areas mentioned.