Philadelphia 2035 (Girard, Penn: stadiums, estimated, rating)

[kidphilly]

A warning sign for Philly’s economy | Philadelphia Real Estate Blog

[rotodome]

Originally Posted by kidphilly

A warning sign for Philly’s economy | Philadelphia Real Estate Blog

I'm definitely a bit concerned of the Higher Ed. bubble (as I guess I've posted about a few times already) as the primary driver of so much growth & development. Something has got to give at some point.

[drive carephilly]

I can see growth slowing or even stopping in the near future but kids aren't going to stop going to college - and if they do those universities are going to have to lower tuition to get kids in the door and paying the bills.

The baby boom is just getting in the door. They're not going to stop getting old or sick. Besides, places like Penn, CHOP, Fox Chase, etc. have reputations that stretch far beyond the Delaware Valley.

Not saying that hospitals and schools can keep building forever but I don't think those industries are are going to crash soon and go through a period of massive layoffs . . . and hopefully when they do experience a slowdown the rest of the economy has dusted off and can absorb the loss.

[RightonWalnut]

^^ Agree... I'm sick of the doom and gloom arguments. Manufacturing and industry is different. When a country gets to a certain point, it gets too expensive to manufacture things so it is outsourced to other countries who have a cheaper work force. You think we are going to outsource our education and medical research to other countries?! HAHA! This argument doesn't even make sense!

1. There will be an education bubble... however, kids aren't going to stop going to school. Tuition will probably lower some but that will only cause MORE kids to go to school and the Universities will just gain all the money back as if tuition was higher.... also the population of the U.S. is growing rapidly! Not only are there more and more kids every year who need to go to school but there are more and more people coming to Philadelphia. So the building of new facilities and student housing of schools may slow a little and even stop for a fews years, but it will pick up again.

2. You really think hospitals are just going to disappear?! People won't just stop getting sick. New diseases and viruses are discovered every month. There will always be a need for medical research and hospitals. Not to mention all of the diseases and viruses we still haven't solved. Also, since the population is growing there will be a need for more patient and out-patient space in hospitals in Philadelphia.

3. I do agree that Philadelphia needs to diversify more... we have a decent manufacturing industry and we're strong in the education and medical industries, I think we need to strengthen the tourism industry, tech industry, the entertainment industry and the financial industry in the city. It is very evident that the tourism industry is growing... a new convention center, new museums, new hotels being built, a record number of visitors to Philadelphia last year... we are on the right track to strengthening the toursim industry.. also, Comcast is our answer to the Entertainment industry. They are the answer to bringing entertainment jobs here... they do own NBC-Universal remember?? The tech industry is growing, if slowly, but it is growing (as evident by N3RD Street)...Lastly is the financial industry. This is the trickiest one. The financial industry is showing no signs of growth, hopefully we can find a solution to this or hopefully the High Speed Rail will bring some jobs.

Eds and Meds are not going to go away... ever. Industry is different and is a phase of a growing country... but people will always need medical institutions and institutions of higher learning.

The solution to all of Philadelphia's problems is not far away. Once the High Speed Rail line is completed all of Philadelphia's woes will be solved. The High Speed Rail WILL bring more residents and jobs to Philadelphia... it really is a blessing and a lot of people can't see that.

[kidphilly]

We cant rely on Meds and Eds (law firms too) forever - we need to attract more tech and finance jobs - and retain and incubate talent and lesson the corporate tax burden to attract more jobs.

All booms in sectors come to an end, that is something I do believe


And it isnt doom and gloom - being bulish is one thing but being ignorant to reality is another. Philly has not a great job on many aspects over the last 50 years, though that momentum is shifting and needs to be enhanced

[RightonWalnut]

Originally Posted by kidphilly

We cant rely on Meds and Eds (law firms too) forever - we need to attract more tech and finance jobs - and retain and incubate talent and lesson the corporate tax burden to attract more jobs.

All booms in sectors come to an end, that is something I do believe


And it isnt doom and gloom - being bulish is one thing but being ignorant to reality is another. Philly has not a great job on many aspects over the last 50 years, though that momentum is shifting and needs to be enhanced

Not being ignorant.. and agree that we need to strengthen other industries.. but if you think Medical Research/Hospitals and Higher Education is just going to go away?

Please explain what you think is going to happen to these industries. People just decide not to go to school and get an education? The gods descend from the heavens and wipe diseases and viruses from the face of the earth?

Here is why the Education sector and the Medical Sector are growing... and won't stop.

Population of the Earth and the U.S. is growing and has been since the history of foreverdom.

Hospitals are growing to accommodate the growing population (Need more space to accommodate more people)...

Universities are growing to accommodate a growing population (Need more space to accommodate more people)... and even if there is an Education bubble and tuition is lowered... that will only cause MORE people to go to school resulting in the Universities gaining just as much if not more money than before and the same amount of people if not more people going to College than before. What is the Number 1 reason why kids don't go to school?? "It's too expensive"

The Medical Research industry and scientific research industry are growing in UCity which won't grow forever but is a strong industry to have.

I do agree that we need to strengthen other industries specifically financial and entertainment industries which are showing no signs of growth...

However, the tourism industry and the Tech industry is surely growing as well as an already strong manufacturing industry, education industry, Medical/Medical Research Industry, as well as a growing Science Research Industry as evident in UCity.

[rotodome]

A contraction of an industry sector doesn't mean that industry goes away, but it could well mean that a lot of jobs in that sector do go away.
Much of the growth in Higher Ed has been in non-essential administrative functions and capital improvements. If the current student loan cash free-for-all ends and compels (even just some) colleges & universities to restructure or reprioritize it could absolutely have a big affect.
And sure Higher Education can be outsourced. Look at how many international students come the the US to attend universities.
And the whole reason why university research has been booming is because it's cheaper for universities to do the same research that government agencies would otherwise do when they've got cheap student labor performing the research (on their student loan dime). That could change, too.
Not to be super negative, but it's a real consideration.

[RightonWalnut]

Awesome right up about the Navy Yard... at the bottom it lists some new places coming to the Navy Yard including a new Marriot Hotel and a new Office Building

On the brink of reaching a 10,000-jobs milestone, Navy Yard will soon release an updated Master Plan | PlanPhilly: Planning Philadelphia's Future

[drive carephilly]

FWIW - I don't think Philly is at a major loss for finance for a metro of this size. Vanguard is huge. Granted it's not in the city and for tax-purposes that sucks for the city but it's still a + for the metro and still has some trickle down benefit for the city.

Originally Posted by rotodome

And sure Higher Education can be outsourced. Look at how many international students come the the US to attend universities.

I'm leaving the country for grad school.

Why would I pay $17k/year to go to grad school in North Philly when I can pay $8k/year to do it in Australia? . . . at a school that is already accredited by the professional association relevant to my career.

when you introduce the free market to an "industry" you're essentially introducing a boom-bust cycle. Places like hospitals, schools and grocery stores are less impacted but not completely immune.

Some schools are going to take a hit but it's not going to be as severe as some might suggest.

I think the hospitals are going to feel the pinch more from changes to healthcare law than from a sudden lack of old people or cancer patients. I worked as a contractor at Abington Memorial for a year and I've never been anywhere where people got paid as much and worked as little as a lot of the staff in that hospital (i'm talking about the admin). If anyone wonders why health care costs are bankrupting the country - look no further - and that stuff is gonna have to change and soon.

Still, I think in both cases we're talking 5+ years down the road and other sectors of the economy should pick enough by then to offset those losses.

I don't think it's reason for hand-wringing. If you look at economic growth in this metro over the last 40 years it has one of the steadiest lines of the top 20 metros in the country because our economy is already well diversified. Clearly, having most of your growth concentrated in 2 sectors shouldn't be a long-term strategy but in the cyclical nature of things, it does happen.

[Marius Pontmercy]

Originally Posted by Summersm343

Awesome right up about the Navy Yard... at the bottom it lists some new places coming to the Navy Yard including a new Marriot Hotel and a new Office Building

On the brink of reaching a 10,000-jobs milestone, Navy Yard will soon release an updated Master Plan | PlanPhilly: Planning Philadelphia's Future

BSL extension to the Navy Yard has to happen soon. What would the cost of an at-grade connection be south of Pattison Ave? This needs priority over the NHSL extension to KOP. This is a job center entirely within city limits and that is still growing.