09-20-2012, 07:36 AM
Location: The City
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09-20-2012, 08:43 AM
Location: back in Philadelphia!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
kidphilly
I'm definitely a bit concerned of the Higher Ed. bubble (as I guess I've posted about a few times already) as the primary driver of so much growth & development. Something has got to give at some point.
09-20-2012, 09:06 AM
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I can see growth slowing or even stopping in the near future but kids aren't going to stop going to college - and if they do those universities are going to have to lower tuition to get kids in the door and paying the bills.
The baby boom is just getting in the door. They're not going to stop getting old or sick. Besides, places like Penn, CHOP, Fox Chase, etc. have reputations that stretch far beyond the Delaware Valley.
Not saying that hospitals and schools can keep building forever but I don't think those industries are are going to crash soon and go through a period of massive layoffs . . . and hopefully when they do experience a slowdown the rest of the economy has dusted off and can absorb the loss.
09-20-2012, 09:46 AM
Location: Philadelphia, PA
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^^ Agree... I'm sick of the doom and gloom arguments. Manufacturing and industry is different. When a country gets to a certain point, it gets too expensive to manufacture things so it is outsourced to other countries who have a cheaper work force. You think we are going to outsource our education and medical research to other countries?! HAHA! This argument doesn't even make sense!
1. There will be an education bubble... however, kids aren't going to stop going to school. Tuition will probably lower some but that will only cause MORE kids to go to school and the Universities will just gain all the money back as if tuition was higher.... also the population of the U.S. is growing rapidly! Not only are there more and more kids every year who need to go to school but there are more and more people coming to Philadelphia. So the building of new facilities and student housing of schools may slow a little and even stop for a fews years, but it will pick up again.
2. You really think hospitals are just going to disappear?! People won't just stop getting sick. New diseases and viruses are discovered every month. There will always be a need for medical research and hospitals. Not to mention all of the diseases and viruses we still haven't solved. Also, since the population is growing there will be a need for more patient and out-patient space in hospitals in Philadelphia.
3. I do agree that Philadelphia needs to diversify more... we have a decent manufacturing industry and we're strong in the education and medical industries, I think we need to strengthen the tourism industry, tech industry, the entertainment industry and the financial industry in the city. It is very evident that the tourism industry is growing... a new convention center, new museums, new hotels being built, a record number of visitors to Philadelphia last year... we are on the right track to strengthening the toursim industry.. also, Comcast is our answer to the Entertainment industry. They are the answer to bringing entertainment jobs here... they do own NBC-Universal remember?? The tech industry is growing, if slowly, but it is growing (as evident by N3RD Street)...Lastly is the financial industry. This is the trickiest one. The financial industry is showing no signs of growth, hopefully we can find a solution to this or hopefully the High Speed Rail will bring some jobs.
Eds and Meds are not going to go away... ever. Industry is different and is a phase of a growing country... but people will always need medical institutions and institutions of higher learning.
The solution to all of Philadelphia's problems is not far away. Once the High Speed Rail line is completed all of Philadelphia's woes will be solved. The High Speed Rail WILL bring more residents and jobs to Philadelphia... it really is a blessing and a lot of people can't see that.
09-20-2012, 09:51 AM
Location: The City
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We cant rely on Meds and Eds (law firms too) forever - we need to attract more tech and finance jobs - and retain and incubate talent and lesson the corporate tax burden to attract more jobs.
All booms in sectors come to an end, that is something I do believe
And it isnt doom and gloom - being bulish is one thing but being ignorant to reality is another. Philly has not a great job on many aspects over the last 50 years, though that momentum is shifting and needs to be enhanced
09-20-2012, 10:04 AM
Location: Philadelphia, PA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
kidphilly
We cant rely on Meds and Eds (law firms too) forever - we need to attract more tech and finance jobs - and retain and incubate talent and lesson the corporate tax burden to attract more jobs.
All booms in sectors come to an end, that is something I do believe
And it isnt doom and gloom - being bulish is one thing but being ignorant to reality is another. Philly has not a great job on many aspects over the last 50 years, though that momentum is shifting and needs to be enhanced
Not being ignorant.. and agree that we need to strengthen other industries.. but if you think Medical Research/Hospitals and Higher Education is just going to go away?
Please explain what you think is going to happen to these industries. People just decide not to go to school and get an education? The gods descend from the heavens and wipe diseases and viruses from the face of the earth?
Here is why the Education sector and the Medical Sector are growing... and won't stop.
Population of the Earth and the U.S. is growing and has been since the history of foreverdom.
Hospitals are growing to accommodate the growing population (Need more space to accommodate more people)...
Universities are growing to accommodate a growing population (Need more space to accommodate more people)... and even if there is an Education bubble and tuition is lowered... that will only cause MORE people to go to school resulting in the Universities gaining just as much if not more money than before and the same amount of people if not more people going to College than before. What is the Number 1 reason why kids don't go to school?? "It's too expensive"
The Medical Research industry and scientific research industry are growing in UCity which won't grow forever but is a strong industry to have.
I do agree that we need to strengthen other industries specifically financial and entertainment industries which are showing no signs of growth...
However, the tourism industry and the Tech industry is surely growing as well as an already strong manufacturing industry, education industry, Medical/Medical Research Industry, as well as a growing Science Research Industry as evident in UCity.
09-20-2012, 10:52 AM
Location: back in Philadelphia!
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A contraction of an industry sector doesn't mean that industry goes away, but it could well mean that a lot of jobs in that sector do go away.
Much of the growth in Higher Ed has been in non-essential administrative functions and capital improvements. If the current student loan cash free-for-all ends and compels (even just some) colleges & universities to restructure or reprioritize it could absolutely have a big affect.
And sure Higher Education can be outsourced. Look at how many international students come the the US to attend universities.
And the whole reason why university research has been booming is because it's cheaper for universities to do the same research that government agencies would otherwise do when they've got cheap student labor performing the research (on their student loan dime). That could change, too.
Not to be super negative, but it's a real consideration.
09-20-2012, 09:18 PM
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FWIW - I don't think Philly is at a major loss for finance for a metro of this size. Vanguard is huge. Granted it's not in the city and for tax-purposes that sucks for the city but it's still a + for the metro and still has some trickle down benefit for the city.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
rotodome
And sure Higher Education can be outsourced. Look at how many international students come the the US to attend universities.
I'm leaving the country for grad school.
Why would I pay $17k/year to go to grad school in North Philly when I can pay $8k/year to do it in Australia? . . . at a school that is already accredited by the professional association relevant to my career.
when you introduce the free market to an "industry" you're essentially introducing a boom-bust cycle. Places like hospitals, schools and grocery stores are less impacted but not completely immune.
Some schools are going to take a hit but it's not going to be as severe as some might suggest.
I think the hospitals are going to feel the pinch more from changes to healthcare law than from a sudden lack of old people or cancer patients. I worked as a contractor at Abington Memorial for a year and I've never been anywhere where people got paid as much and worked as little as a lot of the staff in that hospital (i'm talking about the admin). If anyone wonders why health care costs are bankrupting the country - look no further - and that stuff is gonna have to change and soon.
Still, I think in both cases we're talking 5+ years down the road and other sectors of the economy should pick enough by then to offset those losses.
I don't think it's reason for hand-wringing. If you look at economic growth in this metro over the last 40 years it has one of the steadiest lines of the top 20 metros in the country because our economy is already well diversified. Clearly, having most of your growth concentrated in 2 sectors shouldn't be a long-term strategy but in the cyclical nature of things, it does happen.
09-21-2012, 10:31 AM
Location: West Cedar Park, Philadelphia
1,225 posts, read
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Summersm343
BSL extension to the Navy Yard has to happen soon. What would the cost of an at-grade connection be south of Pattison Ave? This needs priority over the NHSL extension to KOP. This is a job center entirely within city limits and that is still growing.
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Occupied housing units (%)
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Urban houses (%)
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Mortgage status - with mortgage (%)
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Geographical mobility - Same house 1 year ago (%)
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Industry diversity
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People in Group quarters - Institutionalized population (%)
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People in Group quarters - Schools, hospitals, or wards for the mentally retarded (%)
People in Group quarters - Schools, hospitals, or wards for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Institutions for the deaf (%)
People in Group quarters - Institutions for the blind (%)
People in Group quarters - Orthopedic wards and institutions for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in general hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in military hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
People in Group quarters - Juvenile institutions (%)
People in Group quarters - Long-term care (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for abused, dependent, and neglected children (%)
People in Group quarters - Residential treatment centers for emotionally disturbed children (%)
People in Group quarters - Training schools for juvenile delinquents (%)
People in Group quarters - Short-term care, detention or diagnostic centers for delinquent children (%)
People in Group quarters - Type of juvenile institution unknown (%)
People in Group quarters - Noninstitutionalized population (%)
People in Group quarters - College dormitories (includes college quarters off campus) (%)
People in Group quarters - Military quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - On base (%)
People in Group quarters - Barracks, unaccompanied personnel housing (UPH), (Enlisted/Officer), ;and similar group living quarters for military personnel (%)
People in Group quarters - Transient quarters for temporary residents (%)
People in Group quarters - Military ships (%)
People in Group quarters - Group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes or halfway houses for drug/alcohol abuse (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally retarded (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Other group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Religious group quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - Dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Agriculture workers' dormitories on farms (%)
People in Group quarters - Job Corps and vocational training facilities (%)
People in Group quarters - Other workers' dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Crews of maritime vessels (%)
People in Group quarters - Other nonhousehold living situations (%)
People in Group quarters - Other noninstitutional group quarters (%)
Residents speaking English at home (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking other language at home (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Foreign born (%)
Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed in own incorporated business (%)
Class of Workers - Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers (%)
Class of Workers - Local government workers (%)
Class of Workers - State government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Federal government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)