Philadelphia 2035 (Washington, Hawthorn, Penn: universities, rooftop, shop)

[bridge12]

The Census Bureau's interdecadal estimates are notoriously awful and often just plain wrong. Remember how poorly they estimated Philadelphia's population last decade. And then they showed NYC declining when in fact it increased by 600k people. Nevertheless, given the pandemic, I wouldn't be too surprised about a small decline in population between 2020 and 2021.

It's also interesting that Delaware and Bucks lost population, according to these estimates. "Fleeing the city" narrative doesn't really apply there.

[cpomp]

^ How did DC, NYC, Chicago, Boston, etc. do in the census update? I didn't click the detail yet, but curious if numbers were rocky there as well?

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by cpomp

^ How did DC, NYC, Chicago, Boston, etc. do in the census update? I didn't click the detail yet, but curious if numbers were rocky there as well?

I believe all lost proportionately more population than Philadelphia. 2020-2021 were just abysmal for big cities.

Philadelphia's suburbs did remarkably better, even compared to other big metro areas. Here's a source of the color-coded US County map:

https://www.census.gov/library/visua...e-growing.html

[bridge12]

Originally Posted by Duderino

I believe all lost proportionately more population than Philadelphia. 2020-2021 were just abysmal for big cities.

Philadelphia's suburbs did remarkably better, even compared to other big metro areas. Here's a source of the color-coded US County map:

https://www.census.gov/library/visua...e-growing.html

I think Philly's suburbs did better than some other metros. The connection seems to be our suburbs did better than the really expensive metros - LA, NY, Boston i.e. - where people may have simply moved to cheaper metros or states rather than just city -> suburb.

But Philly's collar counties are slacking compared to Charlotte, Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, i.e. Bucks and Delco losing population is a surprise.

[cpomp]

Originally Posted by Duderino

I believe all lost proportionately more population than Philadelphia. 2020-2021 were just abysmal for big cities.

Philadelphia's suburbs did remarkably better, even compared to other big metro areas. Here's a source of the color-coded US County map:

https://www.census.gov/library/visua...e-growing.html

I looked closer at the data and yes, it appears the Philadelphia metro performed better than some other large metros, though behind the likes of Atlanta, Dallas, etc. And Miami decreased, which surprises me.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...nty-metro.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/24/u...on-growth.html

But my hopes is that Covid was a rough patch and cities will recovery to pre-pandemic growth. All signs point to growth in Philadelphia.

Originally Posted by bridge12

I think Philly's suburbs did better than some other metros. The connection seems to be our suburbs did better than the really expensive metros - LA, NY, Boston i.e. - where people may have simply moved to cheaper metros or states rather than just city -> suburb.

But Philly's collar counties are slacking compared to Charlotte, Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, i.e. Bucks and Delco losing population is a surprise.

I think Bucks added under 100 people (so net zero), not actual decline. Delco declined though, which is surprising considered the healthy growth in the Western towns. I assume some of the older and more downtrodden areas may have declined.

And no surprise Chesco and Montco lead the way.

[MarketStEl]

Originally Posted by thedirtypirate

Take over is a bit bold and too general. Cambridge and the Boston area has deep roots in multiple hard science fields that University City will not be able to fully compete with. Gene Therapy, one of the fastest growing/ most promising biotech fields, is ours for the plucking though. It really shouldn't come as a surprise because Gene Therapy is more closely a relative of the Pharma industry (an industry Philadelphia has extremely deep roots in) than it is related to actual tech. None the less, it's still transformative business growth.

I think the folks at Penn went back to its history and realized that the university made a huge mistake in failing to exploit its pioneering role in electronic digital computing.

Penn's medical school and hospital are the birthplace of gene therapy, and this time, the university decided to capitalize on the breakthrough (not letting a tragic death early on in the process stop it).

I'll slog through the Census figures later.

[Chi-town]

Philly's own - The Inquirer is reporting this thread side-topic. Covid did not help NYC and did not really have those exiting NYC over Covid, choose another large city like Philadelphia it seems.

I get the usual subscribe to read in full. Still the link title has..

Philly had its largest one-year population decline since 1975: See charts that show the factors.

Philadelphia lost about 25,000 residents from July 2020 to July 2021.

The drop in total population follows almost a decade of population growth for Philadelphia.

https://www.inquirer.com/news/philad...outputType=amp

[cpomp]

^ what is your point?

Philadelphia is not the only major city that experienced a population decline due to Covid, and the metro fared better than NYC, LA, San Fran, Chicago, and others. And it was 1 of 2 major metros where births outpaced deaths (Miami was the other, which also declined in population).

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...nty-metro.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/24/u...on-growth.html

Plus, the article mentioned "estimate" from the census, and you've stated in the past that the census data should be taken with a grain of salt since your beloved Chicago is often undercounted or decline is overstated.

[Chi-town]

Originally Posted by cpomp

^ what is your point?

Philadelphia is not the only major city that experienced a population decline due to Covid, and the metro fared better than NYC, LA, San Fran, Chicago, and others. And it was 1 of 2 major metros where births outpaced deaths (Miami was the other, which also declined in population).

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...nty-metro.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/24/u...on-growth.html

Plus, the article mentioned "estimate" from the census, and you've stated in the past that the census data should be taken with a grain of salt since your beloved Chicago is often undercounted or decline is overstated.

No point, no personal issues as some might have with posters by thin-skin. I surely know other city losses too. If you opened the link (unless a paywall)? You should see Philly's METRO loss was small vs some cities. SO THANK ME.

Merely, had the link in my Phone News feed this morning and reading this side topic.

It seemed pertinent to this side-topic.

What cities each of us might have a affinity by affiliation to, is with each of us and played a roll in life. Whether NYC to Philly, a Kansas City to Boston too, or toward Philly or Chicago.

Yesterday, I had my Dentist jokingly asking me why I had my Cubs cap on instead of the Phillies.... I noted my nearly 7-yrs living there. She fully understood then and told me the below story.

Gave her Affinity still in part to Toronto her family originally emigrated to from India and its teams vs all others. She was born in Canada. She also has a affinity to Philly also, having lived there in her College years and possibly internship?

But when sports teams from Toronto play.... she still roots for them. Philly teams all other times. She is a unique Dentist cheap doing it alone. No hygienist even and can you imagine a Crown in 2 visits each for $900 each. My other Dentist would have been closer to $3000 in multiple visits.

Anyway... take others comments in a chat forum with a grain of salt. I keep it low-key here as some get personal quickly.

My one lap Top left me into the full Inquirer link. For those with the paywall.

More of this links stats.

There are a few possible factors driving the Philly departures. But Kevin Gillen, senior research fellow at Drexel University’s Lindy Institute for Urban Innovation, found that a desire to flee crowded urban centers was a powerful motivator as he studied migration patterns in the first year of the pandemic using Postal Service data.

Gillen’s team found young people were moving back with parents, more affluent residents were taking off to second homes, and city dwellers were ditching cosmopolitan life in exchange for green space.

While a loss of 25,000 residents is significant, experts caution against putting too much emphasis on one data point collected in an unprecedented year.

“The domestic migration out of Philadelphia has been going on for quite some time,” said Ben Gruswitz, who uses this type of data for socioeconomic and land use analytics at the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission.

Gruswitz said without another year of data it’s unclear if the movement out of Philadelphia was permanent for some families. Even if those families don’t move back, Gruswitz believes births could reach pre-pandemic levels as life resumes. And immigration, which took a significant hit during former President Donald Trump’s administration and the pandemic, will likely increase over the rest of President Joe Biden’s term.

Gruswitz also cautions that the methods producing this latest batch of data are not as authoritative as the decennial count.

“It is just an estimate,” he said. “And it turned out that over the course of the last decade, they were pretty off from what actually seemed to happen.”

A city spokesperson was similarly cautious, saying Mayor Jim Kenney’s administration was still going over the numbers and couldn’t offer any more insights into what has caused the “change in population estimate.”

Also from this Inquirer link.
METROS - loss for the year.

NYC --- -385,455
LA ------ -204,776
CHI ---- -106,897
DC ------ -66,811
MIA ---- -55,305
PHI ----- -14,763

[MarketStEl]

Originally Posted by Chi-town

Yesterday, I had my Dentist jokingly asking me why I had my Cubs cap on instead of the Phillies.... I noted my nearly 7-yrs living there. She fully understood then and told me the below story.

Gave her Affinity still in part to Toronto her family originally emigrated to from India and its teams vs all others. She was born in Canada. She also has a affinity to Philly also, having lived there in her College years and possibly internship?

But when sports teams from Toronto play.... she still roots for them. Philly teams all other times.

Should the Chiefs and Eagles ever meet in the Super Bowl — and when they do meet in interconference play — I will be rooting for the wrong team, either in the comfort of my home or with kindred souls at Big Charlie's Saloon.

Forever Kansas Citian, adopted Philadelphian.