so this whole El Nino thing was a joke? (Santa Ana: activity, ratings)

[PeaceOwl]

The last few years the weathermen/women have been wrong more often than right. I have not witnessed that in Ca., ever. It's funny, when you see the storms moving down the coast, it is so obvious they are not heading in the direction that they used to....I'd be rich if I had bet big bucks against the storms in L.A.

But the rain direction has produced a perfect source of water in central and northern Ca. What more could we ask for! And I'm bet tin' March and April will dump more down south, when the southern storms kick in, spinning in circles over and over...

[suzie02]

Originally Posted by ABrandNewWorld

You mean you've been getting a lot of cold overcast drizzle. I'd hate that too if I went days on end without seeing the sun. I love rain but in the form of a big storm followed by a long string of warm sunny days. We are going to get a big storm this afternoon (hopefully with some thunder and lightning!) and then the entire work week is forecast to be sunny with highs in 60s and 70s. Last July, we got a big storm that dumped 2 inches of rain within 2 days and the rest of the month had truly wonderful beach weather (highs in the 80s, lows around 70).

I think the rest of the winter will be in the form of a few big storms of Southern California (2 or 3 days a month) and lots of nice weather in between. I also think we will get an occasional episode of warm rain in summer. The cold overcast drizzlefests are why I couldn't live in the Northern half of the state.

We have been getting rain. Winter rain not summer storms.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by blam

now I know that "storm" means there is going to be a medium rainfall for a couple hours throughout 2 days.

El Nino is not just about rainstorms. Wait a little while.
High-pressure mass above Southern California keeps brunt of El Niño away - LA Times

[Thunder98]

El No is not a storm! El Nino is unusually warmer than avarage ocean temperatures in the Eastern and Central pacific. The easterly trade winds in Peru slack or even reverse!

[kwong7]

Originally Posted by LuvSouthOC

Northern California got tons of rain and snow and that is far more important.

Sadly true. The snowpacks and reservoirs are much more vital to California's water supply than rainfall in southern California, most of which ends up in the flood channels & sewers on the way to the ocean.

[MountainHi]

Originally Posted by russlancea

Yes, they said the last El Nino storm in 98 (?) came in Feb & March, so we still have time left for a big show. El Nino is brewing in the ocean...

There were 3 El Nino's in the first decade of the 2000's, according to NOAA. Is the last one you can remember the '98 one? They're increasing in frequency, due to ocean warming overall.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

ENSO peaked in November and Nino indices are falling like a rock. Prog'ed to be ENSO neutral mere weeks from today then diving into La Nina territory during summer and beyond.

Short and sharp.

Although we experienced lingering effects during January, the remainder of the water year, notwithstanding any unexpected summer gifting by the SW Monsoon, looks to be normal to below normal.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Originally Posted by MountainHi

There were 3 El Nino's in the first decade of the 2000's, according to NOAA. Is the last one you can remember the '98 one? They're increasing in frequency, due to ocean warming overall.

Your last sentence is not scientifically accurate.

There have been some assertions that that may happen in the future.

We are not at present experiencing abnormal ENSO behavior.

If anything, we are La Nina dominated overall, and have been since about 1999, due to modulation by PDO.

[NativeOrange]

Originally Posted by BayAreaHillbilly

ENSO peaked in November and Nino indices are falling like a rock. Prog'ed to be ENSO neutral mere weeks from today.

This is completely inaccurate.

As of this Monday, Niño 3.4 anomalies are still at 2.5 Celsius, while Niño 3 is at 2.3. That's still on the strong to very strong category. It would take an act of "God" to bring those to neutral in mere weeks. Unless your talking about Niño 1+2, which is not a good indication of El Niño strength unless you live in Equatorial South America.

Factor in that we just recorded the strongest westerly wind burst on record in early January, and you can bet that this Niño is not going to die slowly.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Originally Posted by NativeOrange

This is completely inaccurate.

As of this Monday, Niño 3.4 anomalies are still at 2.5 Celsius, while Niño 3 is at 2.3. That's still on the strong to very strong category. It would take an act of "God" to bring those to neutral in mere weeks. Unless your talking about Niño 1+2, which is not a good indication of El Niño strength unless you live in Equatorial South America.

Factor in that we just recorded the strongest westerly wind burst on record in early January, and you can bet that this Niño is not going to die slowly.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

Well in terms of sensible weather, here is what we now have:

TODAY BEGINS A LONG STRETCH OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITIES. GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (GENERALLY < 30 MPH) THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK TROF APPROACHES TONIGHT AND BRINGS NOTHING BUT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. ON FRIDAY THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO JUMP TO AT LEAST 6 MB OFFSHORE WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO GENERATE LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL THURSDAY THEN ABOVE NORMAL FRI/SAT WITH THE INCREASE IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE CHILLY BUT THOSE TOO WILL BE TRENDING UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. .LONG TERM...(SUN-WED) AFTER THE LAST LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REALLY TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE WEST COAST, PEAKING IN STRENGTH ON TUESDAY. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL NUDGE UPWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MORE ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. DOESN`T SEEM LIKE THE FLOW ALOFT IS IDEAL FOR A WARNING LEVEL EVENT BUT CAN`T RULE THAT OUT. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH 80S STARTING TO POP UP SUNDAY AND MID TO HIGH 80S POSSIBLE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. OFFSHORE FLOW DOES START TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ENOUGH TO PROBABLY DROP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LVL TEMPS ARE THE SAME OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER WED SO PROBABLY LITTLE CHANGE OR SLIGHT WARMING WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

============================

Also: CPC are prog'ing below normal precip until at least mid month.