[nightbird47]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

Howdy! First post for 2014, Hope you had a great Christmas and New Year. I have been reviewing my initial forecast post I made back in early November and I see that overall, I've had the right idea about this winter with perhaps the exception of the cold lasting through Christmas and the intensity of the cold (-12F in Nowata just over a week ago).

In the near future, an overall milder and very dry weather pattern will rule with a brief cool down Thurs.&Fri. into next weekend..Then, overall, slightly to moderately above normal temps afterwards that will be interspersed with periodic incursions of polar and even arctic air that will sideswipe us, sending temperatures plummeting for a couple of days, only to rebound to more March like readings shortly thereafter. I wouldn't be surprised if some places, especially in SW Okla. receives hardly any measurable precip. for at least the next two weeks, maybe three before this dry pattern breaks (hopefully). Yesterdays fires may be just a taste of things to come if my prediction holds true.

I do think we are NOT over with winter though. I do see changes afoot starting roughly around Jan. 24-26th time frame and I think it's definitely possible we could see another significant arctic outbreak sometime just after the aforementioned dates to around the first week of Feb. I am very confident that further north and east (the epicentre of upcoming cold centred in the Great Lakes, IL to NY and New England) will occur by months end into early Feb. This will barely include Oklahoma but I think we will at least get into a part of this and may briefly send temps. into the single digits above zero for lows and 20's to near 30 for highs. As for precip. hard to tell now, but my guess is.. not much, but will likely include a little ice at the onset. I think the projected upcoming cold wave will break by mid Feb. and we will return to slightly to much above normal temps. and a continuation of below normal moisture. I have been hoping for a resurgence in the subtropical jetstream that I was thinking would give us more rain/snow for Feb. Right now, I don't see that materializing but again, we are talking a month out, much can and probably will change.

Further ahead, the pattern suggests periodic bouts of seasonable cold with abnormal warmth late in Feb. and March, I still think March could be colder than normal overall with one decent snow/ice event. There are hints that this upcoming spring may be similar to last year, but I can hardly imagine the anomalies and that freaky ice storm we experienced in early April last year.

So lets see what happens. Stay well and blessed.. Let us know what's happening in your city or town.

Thank you so much. There is a change of plan and things have been moved to the first of the month. Should I be worried about freezing pipes if I have to turn off the heat and should I worry about bad storms?

We keep getting warmish days followed by cold nights. Makes regulating house temp interesting.

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by nightbird47

Thank you so much. There is a change of plan and things have been moved to the first of the month. Should I be worried about freezing pipes if I have to turn off the heat and should I worry about bad storms?

We keep getting warmish days followed by cold nights. Makes regulating house temp interesting.

Approximately where do you live in Okla.? We have some potentially very cold periods coming up around the first of the month (and somewhat, later this week). These air masses will be transient in nature and accompanied by meager amounts of moisture. Since my last post, models still onboard with the arctic outbreaks mainly staying north and east of Okla., but we'll feel the side affects of it. There are some hints that between Feb. 1-10th that we may get a chunk of arctic air through here in Okla. but the consistency of the model runs leaves room for alot of doubt. If thismorning's runs verify, look for an ice event around the Feb. 2-3rd time frame, but it looks inconsequential.

As of now, my guess is that by the end of Feb., we'll be at or above normal temperature wise with the bulk of the winter weather behind us.. I still think though that an episode of subnormal cold and a winter weather event of some sort could affect us in March. Usually, one winter in 4 gives us at least one decent snow event in the OKC/Tulsa area (2 inches+) What I would do is shut off your water before you leave to be on the safe side.

[rockyinyourradio]

Several opportunities for snow/sleet/freezing rain between now through next weekend. Quite a stretch of winter weather commences tonight across the state. Virtually everyone will get in on the act with this pattern, the heaviest snow and some ice will be across the northeast 2/3rds of the state, but even southern and SW Okla. will get a nice dose on Sunday in particular. I haven't seen a prolonged stretch of wintry, grey and overcast weather expected in a LONG time. Some places, especially in eastern Okla. will see no more than a few hours of sunshine between now through next Saturday.. pretty rare for these parts.

I think this pattern will break around Valentines Day and I still stick to my earlier forecast that the last part of the month will be drier and considerably milder. I even think now that March may be a little warmer than previously thought. More on that soon.

Meanwhile, once again, I appreciate all who have contributed here and I hope to read more responses and invite any questions one may have. Thanks and stay toasty!

[educator1953]

Well, after a round of light sleet, we are now having a beautiful snowfall here in Duncan, Oklahoma. It's snowing fairly heavily, and the ground is already covered.

Hope everyone is warm and toasty today. I plan to stay home, drink coffee, and enjoy the view from my new windows!

[SluggoF16]

Big, fluffy, easy-to-shovel flakes so far, about 4 inches. Only issue is the sleet overnight under the snow, sticking to the concrete. The dog is alternately amused and bewildered by it.

EDIT: Wichita Falls station reports 10" of snow in Lawton, not seeing it out here west of LAW but based on the intensity an hour ago I don't think it's out of the quaestion. And word is the groundhog says six more weeks of winter. (He blew last year's prediction.)

[_redbird_]

I can't believe my county has had 1/3 as many tornadoes as the winner.


Oklahoma Co. second, Canadian Co. third in confirmed tornadoes by county since 1950 | News OK

[nightbird47]

Any thoughts on if the El Nino (post in the California board said the chance is now at seventy percent) will bring in more rain here, and when? I'm very knowledgable about El Nino's there but not here. One pretty much destroyed out patio roof and then what was under it.

[debbie at bouontiful]

Hopefully Rocky will comment on that. I hope it isn't another dry year.

[SluggoF16]

So far it is but all models are pointing to a (hopefully) soggy Memorial Day weekend. I know that won't please some folks with outdoor plans, and the combines just starting to cut down here will be idled a few days, but we really need it in SW OK.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by nightbird47

Any thoughts on if the El Nino (post in the California board said the chance is now at seventy percent) will bring in more rain here, and when? I'm very knowledgable about El Nino's there but not here. One pretty much destroyed out patio roof and then what was under it.

Impacts would likely be for the upcoming Fall and Winter if it materializes as advertised. Odds favor above average precipitation for the southern 1/3 of the US during moderate or stronger El Nino episodes.