[StillwaterTownie]

Cool. A thunderstorm, non severe, so far, approaching Stillwater as of 7/10, early afternoon, and hopefully canceling out the forecasted high of 101 as well as the first time the temp went over 100F this year.

[rockyinyourradio]

Well, go figure.. after my last forecast post.. model data has already done an about face, a rather fascinating set up where a mid and upper level low (situated between about 16,000-30,000 feet above ground level) will actually move southwest from the eastern great lakes all the way to the TX panhandle by the middle of next week. A direction that is opposite how most systems move. Unseasonably cool temperatures in these altitudes will create instability and starting Sunday and lasting to at least Thursday, will produce daily showers and thunderstorms, locally strong gusty winds and brief heavy rain that may be accompanied by hail up to nickel, maybe even quarter size are possible. I see up to 4 inches of rain in localized areas, but most places will pick up at least an inch thru the period. Temperatures should average about 5 degrees F below normal. I don't see any 100F temps after tomorrow for at least 10 days. As of now, heaviest precipitation should actually be in the western half of the state and into the TX. panhandle, just where they REALLY need it.

No doubt about it, this has been an odd year, but lets not be so quick to blame man made global warming. It's just weather patterns that have happened many times in the past. I will say, an upper level low retrograding some 1500 miles or more in the opposite direction of normal is something to notice, but has this happened before? yes. Anyway.. enjoy the upcoming break from the heat, as it will return in about 10 days to 2 weeks.

[bchris02]

Rockinyourradio, one thing that really stands out is how violent this year's tornado season was for OKC yet statewide it came in as only about average. Other years like 2011 were record breakers for the state yet OKC managed to make it through with only minor strikes. This last time OKC saw a year like this was 1999 which went down as the worst year for severe weather in the state up to that time. My guess is because the "triple point" where the dry line, jetstream, and cold front converge set itself up just west of the metro repeatedly. My question is, is the epicentre for severe weather at different parts of the state in different years? For instance, the metro saw most of the action this year, but will it be that way every year? Are the back to back days of severe weather, caused by a stalling cold front, that kept reoccurring common most years?

[StillwaterTownie]

A view from Stillwater yesterday, 7/11, of how one of yesterday's storms looked. It was located between Oklahoma City and Tulsa at the time. It was strong, but not severe then.

[Zachj7]

A retrograde system like we have had the past few days is totally follows the laws of atmospheric dynamics. Climatologically speaking, this is unusual at our location.

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by bchris02

Rockinyourradio, one thing that really stands out is how violent this year's tornado season was for OKC yet statewide it came in as only about average. Other years like 2011 were record breakers for the state yet OKC managed to make it through with only minor strikes. This last time OKC saw a year like this was 1999 which went down as the worst year for severe weather in the state up to that time. My guess is because the "triple point" where the dry line, jetstream, and cold front converge set itself up just west of the metro repeatedly. My question is, is the epicentre for severe weather at different parts of the state in different years? For instance, the metro saw most of the action this year, but will it be that way every year? Are the back to back days of severe weather, caused by a stalling cold front, that kept reoccurring common most years?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sorry for the delay in the answer to your question. As for the back to back days of severe weather, many times, mainly later in the severe weather season, episodes of active weather will last two or three days because systems many times will slow down some verses earlier in the season when climatologically, systems move faster. I've seen many times in May and early June when sometimes an upper level trough will sit for a few days over the intermountain west sending repeated disturbances over the southern plains, hence the two, three, sometimes four day stretches of severe weather. Earlier in the season, this would be uncommon.

As for a certain place that gets hit repeatedly, like the unfortunate souls of Moore.. one answer I have ... it's just random.. the unlucky draw. Basically, putting it in more scientific terms.. statistical bunching. There is no good explanation. It just happens. Moore may very well not get directly hit for another 40 years, or they may get hit again next year (God forbid!!). Many will try to blame the river, but there's no proof in that. Cities like Norman went over 30 years without one tornado strike, since 2011, they have had 3. Kingfisher which is 40 miles NW of OKC, lies close to the maximum spot of tornadoes anywhere in the US (and for that matter, the world) hasn't been directly affected by a tornado within their city limits for I believe 50 years now.. no good reason why.. they are lucky, how long that will hold out is anyone's guess.

Now, I have seen some "hot spots" during a particular year that just seemed to get nailed repeatedly, again, no scientific reason behind it, just a random thing. Next year it may be in an entirely different place. Now there is one area of major metropolitan centre's such as Dallas, OKC, Kansas City and Minneapolis, MN. where the north sides of those metro's do get a slight increase in severe weather, this is because typically, winds blow from the south or southeast in advance of storm systems, traveling over the "heat island" of the metro area's. This can increase the energy of the storms that may travel on the north sides of those cities. Statistically, there have been more tornadoes and other forms of severe weather in all of those cities because of this affect. But then again, places like Moore which lie south of the main metro would refute my idea's on that.. but this is the overall consensus if you look at the long term data.

Interestingly, 2013 has been significantly below normal nationwide this year, not sure how many we've had here in Oklahoma so far, but it hasn't been anything close to a record, unfortunately, what we've had has been major. The system on May 31, was the most significant system I'VE EVER SEEN! It even dwarfed the May 3 '99 event. When I saw this in the data early that afternoon, I knew beyond a shadow of a doubt that we were in big, big trouble. Seeing another set up like that would be hard to imagine, if we do, even in the next 10 years.. would lead me to believe that something really wrong is happening to our climate. That's how rare that was. Hope this explains things a little.

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by Zachj7

A retrograde system like we have had the past few days is totally follows the laws of atmospheric dynamics. Climatologically speaking, this is unusual at our location.

Definitely an uncommon thing to have a system retrograde clear from the eastern Great Lakes to West Texas. a couple of times during a typical summer, upper level systems will sometimes originate out in the Atlantic, track into the gulf or into the southeast US, and continue migrating west into the southern plains, most of these are just perturbations in the upper level flow by the time they reach here, but this system we just dealt with was a powerhouse.. definitely unusual, but NOT unheard of. Here at my farm, NW of Piedmont, we received 3.90 of rain in the past 3 days.. more than we typically get for all of July.

Look for a slight chance of storms from Friday until early next week across the northern 2/3rds of Okla. due to a frontal system stalling then dissipating in that area, then what could be a pretty nasty heat wave developing later next week, nasty, because of the amount of humidity involved along with temperatures around 100F. I don't see much rain for a couple of weeks at least after about the 23rd. Excessively hot temps. are unlikely however due to the plentiful moisture we've received, at least initially. I still think later in August, we could see a tropical system influence our weather to give us some rain, but potentially we can get pretty dry if that does not happen. Long term data continues to suggest that the hottest weather is yet to occur. Nothing unusual as August is many times the hottest period of the summer. I am very confident though that the rest of this summer will not be near as hot as in 2011 or 2012.

[bchris02]

May 31 really felt like a "Day After Tomorrow" scenario. I quit smoking back in March but started again that day. Thankfully though the worst of it stayed away from populated areas. I am sure most deaths could have been avoided if people wouldn't have been on the roads. May 20th will be remembered with far more infamy simply because of where it hit.

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by bchris02

May 31 really felt like a "Day After Tomorrow" scenario. I quit smoking back in March but started again that day. Thankfully though the worst of it stayed away from populated areas. I am sure most deaths could have been avoided if people wouldn't have been on the roads. May 20th will be remembered with far more infamy simply because of where it hit.

The vast majority of people who were on the road "evacuating" the area to the south (which was an unwise move to make) were safe in the end.. which was by the grace of God IMHO. It could have been way far worse for sure. More actually were affected by the flooding then by the tornado.

Edit: I included this youtube piece about a friend of mine that I almost lost that day as he drove into a flooded area in Yukon that initially didn't look that bad. I lost three other friends that day to the tornado. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vu6Sphsgbkg

[_redbird_]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

The vast majority of people who were on the road "evacuating" the area to the south (which was an unwise move to make) were safe in the end.. which was by the grace of God IMHO. It could have been way far worse for sure. More actually were affected by the flooding then by the tornado.

Edit: I included this youtube piece about a friend of mine that I almost lost that day as he drove into a flooded area in Yukon that initially didn't look that bad. I lost three other friends that day to the tornado.
Chaser Pulled Under Water - YouTube

Good video, rocky. Same scenario happened in Seminole, OK a few years ago, except it resulted in a fatality. The flooding was right in town too. Very sad.