State Senate Approves additional $300 million for Phase Two of Silver Line (Richmond: condo, crimes)

[OrangeFish]

Originally Posted by brooklynborndad

ruh roh

McDonnell offered millions for Metro, but offer disappeared, senator says - Virginia Politics - The Washington Post

Thanks for posting this!

[tysonsengineer]

While that budget is now underworks in the state house, the good news is, that same law is the one that gives VDOT ultimate say on land use also...

So silver lining on the silver line. I'd rather not take 300 mil from old mcdonnell and have the right to make our own decisions on land use

[sonnymarkjiz]

The Silver Line to Loudoun is gonna happen. This is just all a show to keep people guessing.


If it doesn't happen, then we have the most ignorant, stupid, delusional politicians ever. But I believe 99% it's gonna happen.

[brooklynborndad]

Originally Posted by sonnymarkjiz

The Silver Line to Loudoun is gonna happen. This is just all a show to keep people guessing.

as in you think the Commonwealth will end up chipping in, or you think the Loudoun BoS will move ahead with their two stations even with no Commonwealth contribution?

[sonnymarkjiz]

Either one or both will happen. Remember what happened in 2004 with the Tysons Metro stations?


I just think it's gonna take years. More like 2019 than 2016.

[tysonsengineer]

False, there is no Phase 1 delay option on the table. Either the board votes to approve this or the financials wont work out to provide it in a later phase without complete contribution by loudoun. The cost of the additional section will outweigh loudouns contribution at this time so it wont be an easy sale politically for a long time.

I believe the following will happen based on my decade of following this project which should have been built back in the 2000s frankly.

Loudoun and the new GOP supervisors will vote a party line based on rejecting mass transit as they were brought in as a reform party.

Fairfax will obviously vote it through.

Virginia is the big question mark, clearly the state is using the funding as a negotiation point, so they are not gonna give away the farm without concessions, and I think its going to be more about greater control of road project needs in NOVA and land use, as well as the board members that they demanded on the Airport authority. I think Virginia will end up contributing 150 million through some form of a compromise, but this decision wont be until the USDOT completes it's audit of the costs for the project. Therefore this part of the equation wont be determined until next year budget is voted on.

In the mean term Fairfax and MWAA will play damage control in figuring out a new scope for the project with Loudoun gone. I believe based on MWAA statements that this will remove not only the loudoun station but also Floris as that station can be easily retrofitted later on if necessary (see potomac yard etc). With the removal of loudoun and floris, the cost will be about 2.3 billion. Fairfax and Virginia will keep their contribution the same and a slightly higher cost will be attributed to a reston tax district similar to the special tysons tax district.

With this concession certain developers will gain the same benefits as found in Tysons with higher density alotments and special exceptions. The toll rates will be raised but it will be lower than the scare tactics that both sides of the aisle have been throwing at each other as a power play. Unfortunately this rate will likely be enacted in advance of construction to assure sale of the bonds that are needed. I anticipate it to be around a 0.50 increase at 495 toll plaza and a $1.00 increase for any plaza before the 495 plaza. This would put the toll road on par with costs of the greenway and would not be outrageous enough of an increase to question the agreement between VA, Fairfax, and MWAA.

I really hope Loudoun chooses to join in, because I think it will really help traffic in Nova and would really help younger couples who really would like another commute option. We can cross our fingers but there is no chance the project is delayed, plan on construction starting in 2018 unless the bond market finds the project to be fiscally insolvent (which I dont think it will with the provision of the special tax district).

[sonnymarkjiz]

I wasn't saying phase 1 will be delayed. But it's been pretty delayed so far. I remember reading about a metro to Tyson's at least in 1999 or so. I was a teenager when I remember hearing about the delays. It was supposed to be completed YEARS ago. But I think they were debating about a underground/above ground station for a while.


But yeah I think the guys on the current BOS will vote for the metro. A lot of the members are for it. I feel like the main problem is going to be Richmond and it never ever supporting NOVA. Richmond hates funding anything for nova.

[tysonsengineer]

Richmond and Northern Virginia have been at political stand offs for the past 10 years. The latest weapons have been both sides threatening devolution of roadways (ie the removal of Nova gas tax money from state coffers, and the removal of larger capital abilities in state funding). Both state and nova counties dont want to see this happen, but this latest idiot who used to be an employee of American Petroleum Institute, Sean Connaughton (sorry for the slander but the guy is an idiot who thinks its 1950s america) has a freeway only plan for the state of virginia and has made that clear since he was brought out of the ranks of GOP in prince william county to be the head honcho of virginia transportation.

We'll see what happens, I think everyone knows that rocking the boat that is Virginia's economy makes absolutely no sense, seeing as this state is run like a top 5 as far as fiscal responsibility, investments, education etc... but you never know when a new crew shows up, especially when they are brought in on a wave of gerrymandered districts and political rhetoric.

I dont think Loudoun GOP is a sure shot btw, I really wish I had the confidence you had, because I think the Loudoun element is extremely important to sustainability of NOVA, but I just dont see a brand new board of freshman GOP supervisors voting for a massive spending bill for mass transit. They will say they want to not do metro, and get support by saying the money saved will help lower residential taxes... but man I'd be a happy dude if they go towards a sustainable future.

[sonnymarkjiz]

I emailed a few of the loudoun bos guys and most are in favor of it actually. But they still feel like they need to feel in "power" so to speak, so they keep worrying about crap like labor unions. And worry about the short term impacts instead of the longterm. It's annoying.


By the time I see a metro here, I'll most likely be moved away from loudoun by the time it hits us. But it can help out soooo much in the longrun.

[Denton56]

Nope, that is not true. I know every member of the Loudoun BOS and I know who's committed and who is not. Three of nine are definitely against it, with one more very likely to vote against it. Three are definitely for the metro to Loudoun, one more likely to vote with them. That makes a 4 to 4 vote. The tie breaker is unsure. I talk with that supervisor frequently she/he really is undecided. If I had to bet today, I'd have to say that that member of the board will vote against it and it will go down 5 to 4. It could also pass by that amount. Since the member who asked for the month long extension in the vote is the undecided one, it doesn't bode well for the pro metro supporters because they know that the more voters learn about the metro, and the cost, the less that they want it. The three firmly in favor of the metro voted against delaying the vote, but the other 6 outvoted them. What does that tell you?

Yes, the all republican board of supervisors in Loudoun is concerned that the biggest construction project in the history of the Commonwealth, could be built without any of workers who live in the state. If the labor agreement remains in place, that means union companies will be heavily favored over Virginia companies because Virginia is a right to work state. Like phase I, that means all the workers, thousands of new jobs, will all go to out of state workers. Yes, politicians in Virginia have a problem with billions of our tax dollars going to all workers from other states. Shouldn't our politicians be concerned for Virginia workers and want to make sure that our workers are eligible for the biggest construction project in our state, ever? Shouldn't they be concerned about jobs for Virginians?

Are you aware that this is the first metro project, in the history of the US, that is receiving NO federal money? Phase II gets no money from the federal government, none. And Virginia just nixed the $300 million in their budget for metro. Now everything must be paid with tolls and local taxes. It is estimated that fewer than 1% of Loudoun residents will ever ride metro, while the other 99% of us will have to pay for it, forever. After the initial $300+ million, at least $8 million a year, forever to keep it running and the studies show it could be well over that amount. Many in the 99% would rather have their tax increases going to schools, roads, and other needs in Loudoun. In addition to all that, the Dulles toll road goes up to $5 next year and then close to $10, each way, in the next 8 years. That alone will hurt our house values because people won't want to pay an additional $400 a month, plus Greenway tolls, to commute to Loudoun. It will be $800 a month to get from Leesburg to Tysons! Who will want to do that?! It would have to be a very cheap house to make it worthwhile. House prices will have to go down.

There is ZERO evidence that metro will do anything to help people in Loudoun, other than to increase traffic, increase taxes, and increase tolls (a whole lot). You might want to read this well informed article and be sure to read the first comment for the history of this ridiculous project and how we got to this point. The Most Senseless Transportation Project Ever? | Bacon's Rebellion

Other articles of interest: Will Metro Bring Development to Loudoun? « Virginia Virtucon
Dulles Rail Part Deux « Virginia Virtucon
How Loudoun Bus Riders Will Lose with Metro Extension « Virginia Virtucon

Look around the internet, there are many articles about what what a bad deal phase II is for Loudoun. Today, my vote is on Loudoun opting out. Fairfax can run the metro to the Airport and it can stop there. Unfortunately we will all pay the increased tolls, and the 30,000 extra cars on Rt.7 and Rt 28, and the other back roads, as drivers can't afford to take the toll road and pour on to the other commuter roads. But hey, those aren't my figures, those are from the airport authority's own studies. Dumbest project ever. Read the articles. Get informed and tell your supervisors you want them to opt you out of higher traffic, higher tolls, and higher taxes.