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What is your outlook in the next coming years? Personally I think we are in for some major price reductions in the next couple of years. One major reason is with Gov Christie slashing the public payroll a lot of these people will be forced into selling their homes or even worse foreclosure. If you compound his cuts which I am not arguing for or against with the high unemployment rate already this just does not bode well for the real estate market in NJ. Even if the Gov passes his increases in health benefits and pension contribution for public workers one has to think a lot of these public workers could be in trouble if they own homes. Again I am not arguing the merits of the cuts more so I am saying I think they will have a negative impact for everyone in terms of home prices and home sales. Am I way off with this? The way I see it too many public workers will be effected for it not to negative impact.
Foreclosure process in NJ is long and slow which has meant a huge backlog yet to hit the market. I know of lots of empty homes with that yellow repossession sticker on them not yet on the market; realtor friend knows lots of people who haven't paid their mortgage in almost 2 years and are just waiting it out (high end homes too).
Public sector looks like it will be cut, increasing unemployment and cutting their disposable income considerably.
Layoffs still happening, especially now in pharma which traditionally paid well. Sanofi is cutting jobs, Merck is cutting jobs, Wyeth lost a lot and Roche now announced cuts in Nutley. These people won't be paying their bills and will need to look for work elsewhere.
IT guys who lost their jobs in 2008/9 have had to take big pay cuts and temp/contractor positions to keep paying their bills.
So yes, I think we will be looking at considerable drops still.
I snicker at people who say "When you realize the bottom has hit, prices will already have risen so BUY NOW!" Please tell me when the Real Estate market in the past 40 years has had a "V" recovery. Anyway...
My personal opinion (that and $5.50 will get you a Starbucks) is RE will dip more for reasons mentioned above and will stay flat for at least 7 years - a "U" recovery with the bottom part of the U looking like " ______". My reasoning? Bad economy, gunshy people, gunshy lenders, excessive amounts of foreclosures that still have to work their way through the system, and a complete paradigm shift for the American people.
I have no dog in this hunt nor a direct vested interest in how the market does (in other words, I'm not an agent, buyer or seller). I'm just some schlub who follows the market with interest and remembers the boom and bust of the 80's and 90's.
I'm astonished that prices in Northern NJ have remained as crazy as they have for as long as they have. They're still ridiculous, but finally prices seem to be getting a bit more normal, and they seem to have dropped a bit more since the new year started.
I'm starting to see a few houses in some quality Bergen County 'burbs in the $300,000 - $350,000 range that don't look like they should be condemned. It's about time.
The reality is, people cannot afford to buy homes that are 6X - 7X their annual income. That ratio is ridiculous. We're never going to see homes at an average 2X or so ratio in this area, but I think we need to get down to the 3X -4X range.
Tough to tell. Experts give mixed predictions. I don't give the typical Realtor stock line that 'now is the time to buy'. Nobody knows for sure. Things won't truly turnaround until the job market improves. Some are predicting unemployment to decrease this year. I think things will continue to become more stable in certain areas. I don't see any real appreciation in property values for years. In Bergen County, according to MLS stats, the average price of a single family home in Bergen County was up 1%. This is following years of decline though.
Condo market is still real soft. The problem I am encountering at this point, is having qualified buyers actively looking to buy, but the housing inventory available isn't great. Many of my clients don't even want to touch a short sale. Sellers who bought during the peak years are taking huge hits.
Housing has been a lot more affordable and the interest rates have been very good, which is helping the market. Only time will tell.
Buying a house always depends on your situation. I look at it this way. Interest rates are low, if you are going to buy your first house you really can't go wrong. Take me for example, I bought a house in June of 2010. I'm sure prices will come down a little more but who cares? It's a starter house that I will be in for 5-10 years. If the value of my house happens to come down so will the value of the next house I am going to buy so in the end it all comes out in a wash. The real estate boom of the last decade made people start looking at a home as a investment whose sole purpose was to make tons of money fast. If this is your main reason for buying a house then you should be in the stock or bond market. I've said this before, if you are shopping for a house in these times: buy something well within your means, plan on being there for the next 5 years minimum, and make sure it's something that you and your family can build some great memories in. Do that and you've just won the game of "to buy or not to buy"
Buying a house always depends on your situation. I look at it this way. Interest rates are low, if you are going to buy your first house you really can't go wrong. Take me for example, I bought a house in June of 2010. I'm sure prices will come down a little more but who cares? It's a starter house that I will be in for 5-10 years. If the value of my house happens to come down so will the value of the next house I am going to buy so in the end it all comes out in a wash. The real estate boom of the last decade made people start looking at a home as a investment whose sole purpose was to make tons of money fast. If this is your main reason for buying a house then you should be in the stock or bond market. I've said this before, if you are shopping for a house in these times: buy something well within your means, plan on being there for the next 5 years minimum, and make sure it's something that you and your family can build some great memories in. Do that and you've just won the game of "to buy or not to buy"
depends on your situation. if the value of your house declines to the point where you're underwater, then the price of the next house won't matter if you can't bring $$$ to the table.
if prices decline slightly *and* you've put enough down (at least 20%) most likely you can sell unscathed.
Interesting points of views. I am a big time bear. Roar!!LOL! I do love the company line of buying now. I have yet to hear a realtor tell me it was ever a bad time to buy. Interesting to see Christie's budget speech next month and how many more jobs will be cut in the public sector. Should be interesting to say the least. Another factor is with so many companies hiring but out of the country can we really ever see low unemployment like we have had in the past?
Also of note the whole calling a bottom is just dumb. You cant call a bottom unless you know what unemployment will do. So calling a bottom just because it seems like time is pointless. Essentially call a bottom in high unemployment and its solves a multitude of problems. As of right now I see no bottom in site only because of the high ue.
Interesting points of views. I am a big time bear. Roar!!LOL! I do love the company line of buying now. I have yet to hear a realtor tell me it was ever a bad time to buy. Interesting to see Christie's budget speech next month and how many more jobs will be cut in the public sector. Should be interesting to say the least. Another factor is with so many companies hiring but out of the country can we really ever see low unemployment like we have had in the past?
yes. it's very easy in this day of 24x7 news, pundits, etc to be sucked into thinking things will never recover. I'd bet people who lived through the great depression had a better attitude than most people today. We're soft.
"we didn't start the fire, It was always burning, since the world's been turning" - corny but you get the drift.
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