[magellan]

Originally Posted by Swede in CA

People from CA are moving to TX, AZ, NV, OR, WA and so on, but I see that MI is loosing people as well.

It's always good to get in when things are on the upswing, not when they have peaked. CA already peaked and is headed down, TX is near peak, AZ is past peak, NV is way past peak, OR or WA are OK but you're buying high near peak. MI is on the upswing, opportunities abound, now.

[YAZ]

Originally Posted by magellan

It's always good to get in when things are on the upswing, not when they have peaked. CA already peaked and is headed down, TX is near peak, AZ is past peak, NV is way past peak, OR or WA are OK but you're buying high near peak. MI is on the upswing, opportunities abound, now.

You always post well, but I have to disagree on the AZ thing.

We were hit hard in 2008, but things are starting to turn around. The mfg base is slowly coming back, and the housing market will smooth out soon. How soon?

Dunno.

Az could do better with the tourist industry.

And MI needs to expand its manufacturing.

All that skill and know how can build a lot of things besides cars.

[magellan]

Originally Posted by YAZ

You always post well, but I have to disagree on the AZ thing.

We were hit hard in 2008, but things are starting to turn around. The mfg base is slowly coming back, and the housing market will smooth out soon. How soon?

Dunno.

Az could do better with the tourist industry.

And MI needs to expand its manufacturing.

All that skill and know how can build a lot of things besides cars.

I stand corrected. Home prices depressed pretty badly in AZ I think, so there's probably good buying opportunities. And the outlook I think is pretty good for job growth (outside of tourism and mass immigration). Nevada is f**ked. Utah might be good.

I agree to that Michigan needs to actually EXPAND manufacturing, despite some of the prevailing wisdom that it all needs to be tech and health sciences.

[JoulesMSU]

Originally Posted by The Northerner

Michigan lives and dies with the auto industry. Everything here is tied to it in one way or another. If the auto industry is doing well, then so is Michigan. If it isn't......well, we know that story all too well by now. Right now they're doing pretty good, but it's always a roller coaster ride.

It's a fabulous place to live, regardless.

Which is why the future of this state hinges on whether or not we can get out of this "live or die" relationship.

The auto industry is DYING.

It's NEVER coming back.

If Michigan can accept that and MOVE ON, then we'll be fine.

If not, then we are doomed to go down with it.

It's pretty much as simple as that.



The reason is that manufacturing is a no skill, no education job which can be done anywhere. It makes no sense for auto companies to pay American workers $20/hour when they could pay someone in Asia or Africa $1/day when that person has the EXACT SAME SKILLS and they can do the EXACT SAME WORK. Unless Americans (especially people from Michigan) are willing to compete with those African/Asian workers and take SEVERELY REDUCED PAY, then the manufacturing jobs will never be reliable again.

I don't think people here will want to compete with African/Asian workers for manufacturing jobs - so I say let them have those jobs. We'll just need to come up with other jobs (that require skill, education, or at the very least location) that can realistically offer livable wages. The auto industry will NEVER be able to offer livable wages here in this global economy. Quite frankly, it's stupid to keep waiting for it to "come back".

[weteath]

Something needs to be done about Detroit, I was in a bar last week here and my buddy from NYC came (he used to live here), it was a group of about ten of us young folk chatting about the state and Detroit. For whatever reason there seems to be a big divide in this state, for example, city people vs suburbans. Instead of people seeing Detroit can change some people go like oh we have Ann Arbor or something.

That was something we talked about, we weren't expecting Detroit to be NYC or Chicago/whatever, Detroit could have our own states vibe idk. We just wish it provided a normal big city experience, which it did in the past btw.

So my friend from NYC has a little coalition of us ypsi-folk living in Brooklyn/manhattan, by spring I'm supposed to join them.

The whole point being we wouldn't have to move if Detroit was different.

[michigan83]

Originally Posted by JoulesMSU

Which is why the future of this state hinges on whether or not we can get out of this "live or die" relationship.

The auto industry is DYING.

It's NEVER coming back.

If Michigan can accept that and MOVE ON, then we'll be fine.

If not, then we are doomed to go down with it.

It's pretty much as simple as that.



The reason is that manufacturing is a no skill, no education job which can be done anywhere. It makes no sense for auto companies to pay American workers $20/hour when they could pay someone in Asia or Africa $1/day when that person has the EXACT SAME SKILLS and they can do the EXACT SAME WORK. Unless Americans (especially people from Michigan) are willing to compete with those African/Asian workers and take SEVERELY REDUCED PAY, then the manufacturing jobs will never be reliable again.

I don't think people here will want to compete with African/Asian workers for manufacturing jobs - so I say let them have those jobs. We'll just need to come up with other jobs (that require skill, education, or at the very least location) that can realistically offer livable wages. The auto industry will NEVER be able to offer livable wages here in this global economy. Quite frankly, it's stupid to keep waiting for it to "come back".

You are oversimplifying things.

The auto industry is not "dead." Yes, the higher wages and the employment numbers of 20 years ago are not coming back. But it is far from a "dead" industry. There are costs associated with shipping in cargo/parts from Asia and China, and those costs are continually going up. Many businesses initially underestimated what those costs would be or potentially be when they first began the trend of outsourcing.

I think you are underestimating the role that "low skill" jobs can still play in our economy, especially with high priced goods such as autos. Does it make sense to make T-shirts and coffee cups in the U.S? Probably not. Does it make sense to manufacture something with as much engineering, parts, equipment, and labor investment as a car here in the U.S? I think it still does.

Can the auto industry still provide the comfortable standard of living for assembly line workers that it did in the past? Obviously not. But there is a pretty big gap between $28 an hour with lifetime health care and pension vs. $1.00 per day for an Asian worker. There is a point where it makes more sense to make it here vs. overseas, and I think you might be surprised at how high that "sweet spot" of a wage would be. What if the Big Three and UAW had never agreed to those higher wages, and auto workers never made more than $20 per hour and paid into a 401K and contributed to their own health care? I can almost guarantee that a lot of those auto industry jobs never would have left. And the auto workers would not have been as well off for all those years... but can you live on $20 per hour with so-so benefits in today's world? Heck yes you can. A lot of people would kill for those wages. And you better believe that every single American auto maker could be profitable if that was all they had paid (and had ever paid) their workers.

So lets not confuse the issue too much. The auto industry can be very profitable, and we can make cars here and pay a living wage. It's happening right now. We just can't do what we did in the past, which is pay $28 per hour with lifetime health care, early retirement, and full pension (basically paying people for 30-40 years of not working after they retire!). The auto companies are still paying the price for what they negotiated with workers in the past. That's what has created the illusion that they can't be profitable by making cars here at home.

[magellan]

Originally Posted by JoulesMSU

Which is why the future of this state hinges on whether or not we can get out of this "live or die" relationship.

The auto industry is DYING.

It's NEVER coming back.

If Michigan can accept that and MOVE ON, then we'll be fine.

If not, then we are doomed to go down with it.

It's pretty much as simple as that.



The reason is that manufacturing is a no skill, no education job which can be done anywhere. It makes no sense for auto companies to pay American workers $20/hour when they could pay someone in Asia or Africa $1/day when that person has the EXACT SAME SKILLS and they can do the EXACT SAME WORK. Unless Americans (especially people from Michigan) are willing to compete with those African/Asian workers and take SEVERELY REDUCED PAY, then the manufacturing jobs will never be reliable again.

I don't think people here will want to compete with African/Asian workers for manufacturing jobs - so I say let them have those jobs. We'll just need to come up with other jobs (that require skill, education, or at the very least location) that can realistically offer livable wages. The auto industry will NEVER be able to offer livable wages here in this global economy. Quite frankly, it's stupid to keep waiting for it to "come back".

Hi, 2003 called and it wants its talking points back.

Automotive in the U.S. is not "dead," not by a long shot. If it was a dying proposition, why do Southern states roll out $Hundreds of millions in tax breaks to foreign automakers to open just ONE plant? It certainly won't be like it was. UAW membership in Michigan is 1/4 what it was back in 2000, but that doesn't mean there isn't a viable future as an automotive worker, particularly in technically skilled jobs like engineering, quality, etc..

Oh wait, never mind. Everyone go to a 4 year college and get a general liberal arts degree. That's the ticket to economic prosperity and job security.

[YAZ]

The ONLY way America can turn around is through manufacturing.

Just have to make things that people want.

[YAZ]

Originally Posted by magellan

I stand corrected. Home prices depressed pretty badly in AZ I think, so there's probably good buying opportunities. And the outlook I think is pretty good for job growth (outside of tourism and mass immigration). Nevada is f**ked. Utah might be good.

I agree to that Michigan needs to actually EXPAND manufacturing, despite some of the prevailing wisdom that it all needs to be tech and health sciences.

It was absolutely amazing to see how fast new homes were going up here in the Valley of the Sun.

The demand was overestimated.

Severely.

Sure looks like we've hit rock bottom and are slowly climbing out of the hole.

Good news?

Our property taxes went down.

[malamute]

Originally Posted by Swede in CA

Hello! I am interested how do you see the future of your great state; is it sunny and nice or do you think the state will decline? Do you see new businesses coming and life gets better? I want to make MI my home. I am willing to contribute to make it a better place but I am not the one who can change it; we need effort of many and favorable business conditions. What do you see now?

I think the problem for someone coming from California is that Michigan is not sunny and it's cold. You aren't likely very used to paying heating bills and shoveling snow.

As far as businesses and jobs, it depends alot on what you do for a living, the wages in Michigan are quite high compared with other places.