2021 Real Estate Observations (Boston, Newton, Lexington: trees, building, warm)

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by msRB311

This author covered a lot of what we discuss here right down to not wanting to cut down more trees:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/05/...husetts-apart/

I think we could leave the trees alone and try to make other towns better. There should be plenty of life beyond Lexington, Dover, Wellesley. The problem I see in MA is the glorification of the top schools.

That's doesn't address the underlying issue- cost. People at large are not gonna stop prioritizing school to prioritize trees. plenty of places on earth and states in the US with a lack of tree cover compared to MA.

Towns are fine in MA, making them "better" is subjective and sounds expensive and like it would raise housing costs.

From the article:

Outside of something like housing, we don’t allow incumbents who have a financial interest in restricting supply to restrict supply,” says Jenny Schuetz, an economist who studies housing at the Brookings Institute, a nonprofit public policy organization based in Washington, D.C. “And that’s exactly what we’re doing with homeownership.”

[BostonBornMassMade]

“People like the places they live. They like them to stay the way they remember them. Often, they don’t want more traffic, or more kids in the school. They don’t want trees cut down, and they don’t want apartment buildings to sprout up. On an individual level, that’s totally understandable. At a state — or national — level, it can be disastrous.”

Because the barrier to owning a home becomes more and more difficult to reach for more and more people- and the homes in wealthy areas appreciate faster and faster it creates further divide in wealth and thus health and educational outcomes. This makes the domestic workforce less competitive (hence high immigration here) and necessitates more social welfare programs (higher taxes, see the pending millionaires tax and real estate transfer fee home rule petition) and tax dollars being redirected to more and more people- the growing share of folks who can’t own homes. Some of the states with the lowest homeownership rates are California New Jersey and Massachusetts.

Very bad indeed

[msRB311]

I know but my point is that people snub places like Milton and Braintree because they're obsessed with trying to live in Weston or Lexington. It is entirely possible to get a good public school education in a place like Marshfield or Waltham but people just want the best for little Johnny and Sally and anything less than an A+ on niche isn't good enough. Hell we've already said people who live in Hingham and Wellesley still send their kids to private.

I mentioned in another thread that milton schools are apparently overcrowded. The average classroom has 29 students. Personally I dont think 29 is that much and I think there's a sense of entitlement where people are thinking that is too many for a public school. If someone thinks that's too much, use private. Again, we are living in a society where we want all kids getting special attention/extra attention even though they're likely to end up in college with large lecture halls. Milton is right next to Boston, it's bound to be overpopulated at this point. I'm trying to raise my kids to be somewhat self sufficient. I dont know that I want them in a classroom with just 15 or so other kids. What difference does 15 other kids make vs 25 other kids? Both of their classrooms have about 20 kids right now but if by the time they get to high school and there's 30 kids I hope I dont feel the need to yank them out and use private just based on that. I always hear parents say, oh my kid needs the attention they'll get lost in a big classroom. Welp try to raise them so they dont get lost.

[BostonBornMassMade]

You’re speaking as thought when median income in MA allows you to buy a home in Marshfield or Milton to begin with- it doesn’t. The median fmaily income in MA in 2020 dollars was 106, 526. in 2022 dollars that is 109, 495 https://smartasset.com/investing/inf...tor#hTK75xDH3W



Your comment really has little to nothing to do with the real breakdown the state is facing when it comes to affordability. And how that’s going to negatively impact the future.

The median family in MA can afford a $495,000 home. The median price in Massachusetts for a SFH home is $577,676

In Boston median family income was 116,181in 2020 in 2022 which comes out as 119, 419 which would afford you a house of about $559,000 with 100,0000 down and only $500 in debt a month. And 710 credit score.

The median price of a SFH home in Greater Boston is $789,500 https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/04/...e-this-spring/

In Milton its $900,000 in Marshfield its $700,000.

So the majority of families are priced out of homeownership. Today it is estimated Massachusetts has a homeownership rate of 62.1%. Putting it either in the Bottom 8 of all states depending on who you cite.

[msRB311]

I think what i said is true. There's a lot of people in that 1% who are doing what they can to get into those top towns. For the people who can't get into those towns, private school is what they will aim for. We need more people using the schools that aren't top schools to try and make them better.

Milton is probably a bad example since the schools are overcrowded yet people are still paying a million for a pretty basic house. The only way out of this is for companies to lower salaries I guess.

[Boston Shudra]

Originally Posted by msRB311

The only way out of this is for companies to lower salaries I guess.

How would that help make homes in Milton cheaper?

[msRB311]

Um there would be no choice but to make them cheaper. No high salary = no 800k 3 bedroom house.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by msRB311

. The only way out of this is for companies to lower salaries I guess.

you would rather lower salaries across a 7 million person state with nearly 5 million workers.... than build tens of thousands of new housing units on open land?

Well, I'll tell you right now. Salaries aren't going to get lower. Let's just get that out the way and proceed from there. No one (let alone more than one person) is gonna cut salaries 40% so folks can live in Milton, MA one day.

Let's move this focus back to actually building enough housing because that was a strange and peculiar diversion from reality.

[Boston Shudra]

Originally Posted by msRB311

Um there would be no choice but to make them cheaper. No high salary = no 800k 3 bedroom house.

People from out of state could still afford said house.

[id77]

Originally Posted by porterhouse

It has been pointed out that higher interest rates won't cool high price areas due to the preponderance of cash buyers. However, many cash buyers have taken a serious haircut to their net worth over the past month.

I'm seeing a trend among at least some in that group to pivot into real estate as an investment precisely because it's an increasingly attractive haven to stocks right now. Take cash out of a cooling stock market (many already did months ago, what's still in will be left in by anyone with half a brain) and throw it into a warm housing market, generate cashflow from tenants, and voila: hair keeps growing.

Doesn't help the people competing against cash buyers, particularly in the markets that do well with renters.