Why so many covid 19 cases and deaths in LA County (Los Angeles: public schools, disposal)

[skyway31]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

Unlikely.

Under L.A. County’s plan, if the region reached the high COVID-19 community level, as defined by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and remained there for three consecutive Thursdays, a new mask order would be issued.

A high COVID-19 community level means a county is experiencing a significant amount of community spread and has recently recorded at least 10 new weekly coronavirus-positive hospitalizations for every 100,000 residents.

L.A. County entered that category July 14 and remained there last week — positioning Thursday as the pivotal date.

But coronavirus cases started to decline last week, and new hospital admissions dropped too. L.A. County used its own data to calculate new weekly coronavirus-positive hospital admissions as 9.7 for every 100,000 residents — just under the threshold to trigger the mask mandate. The CDC calculated a rate of 10.7, but Ferrer said the federal agency’s data are older than the county’s.

....The urgent care clinic at Watts HealthCare Corp. has recently observed more sick patients with COVID-19 symptoms, as well as asymptomatic people testing positive for the virus. Dr. Oliver Brooks, the facility’s chief medical officer, said he’s surprised he hasn’t seen a higher level of sickness, such as shortness of breath, pneumonia, dehydration or fatigue.

“I think that’s another reason why we’re seeing a higher case rate — because people are also hearing, ‘Oh, even if you get COVID, you’ll be OK,’ so all of that is kind of feeding together,” Brooks said.

Brooks said the high case rates in recent weeks are likely caused by a combination of the ultra-contagious BA.5 subvariant and pandemic fatigue, with people tired of wearing masks, social distancing and handwashing.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...n-mask-mandate

It will boil down to a couple of factors:
1) will she be forced to abandon the current definition of "Covid hospitalization" and instead use the reasonable metric of "people hospitalized because of Covid"? Reasonable people have been advocating for this for a long time; radicals who want to sustain maximum disruption in pursuit of larger political goals have been opposed to the switch. Thus far, the radicals have dominated in this area. Will that continue? In Los Angeles, with the radicals on the County Board of Supervisors, it's a good bet the radical approach will continue dominating.

2) Will a lawsuit most have forgotten (or never knew about) make its way to a court that stops Barbs? The mask mandate for airplanes got obliterated seemingly out of nowhere.

[Exitus Acta Probat]

Originally Posted by Tulemutt

“Yes, seriously”? … you ‘seriously’ expect your *opinions* (because they certainly aren’t backed up by expertise) to be considered revelatory? You, like me and everyone else here posting anonymously on a social media platform, have no known standing to be throwing around specious scientific musings as if you know what known, credentialed scientists can’t conclude with similar aplomb and confidence.

*Beliefs* are not *knowledge*.

Ah, Tulemutt, you've made me laugh again -- thank you for that, sir. As I've stated previously, I am a credentialed Scientist.

And let's make a case study in prob & stat, in which for the record, I was graded with an A. Now then, of all the places at which the Wuhan coronavirus could have originated, what are the odds that it originated adjacent to China's most prominent research facility, tasked with researching coronaviruses? That would be an n choose k function, in simplest terms and leaving calculus out of this for now, so go ahead and plug that into your TI Scientific and give us the answer...I'll just wait here.

[Tulemutt]

Originally Posted by Exitus Acta Probat

Ah, Tulemutt, you've made me laugh again -- thank you for that, sir. As I've stated previously, I am a credentialed Scientist.

And let's make a case study in prob & stat, in which for the record, I was graded with an A. Now then, of all the places at which the Wuhan coronavirus could have originated, what are the odds that it originated adjacent to China's most prominent research facility, tasked with researching coronaviruses? That would be an n choose k function, in simplest terms and leaving calculus out of this for now, so go ahead and plug that into your TI Scientific and give us the answer...I'll just wait here.

Even were I to assume you are a “credentialed scientist” … I would not believe your “science”, whatever it may be, is life science / medicine / epidemiology. Why would I remain skeptical? Because nothing you’ve posted in the preceding two + years of Covid threads supports such a claim.

“Chances?” As a “prob & stat” guy, you know that *probability* is not *proof*. And, as I said before, the guys and gals out there who are known life / medical / epidemiology scientists overwhelmingly either agree they don’t know where it originated, or hold it was naturally occurring … just as so many diseases of history originated before nefarious ‘government labs’.

You want to side with the conspiracy-theorist outlier scientists? Be my guest. Knock yourself out. But my point stands: the vast vast vast vast majority of known, not anonymous social media posters, credentialed, life / medical / epidemiology scientists disagree with your *beliefs*. You are the waaay outlier.

[Exitus Acta Probat]

Originally Posted by Tulemutt

Even were I to assume you are a “credentialed scientist” … I would not believe your “science”, whatever it may be, is life science / medicine / epidemiology. Why would I remain skeptical? Because nothing you’ve posted in the preceding two + years of Covid threads supports such a claim.

“Chances?” As a “prob & stat” guy, you know that *probability* is not *proof*. And, as I said before, the guys and gals out there who are known life / medical / epidemiology scientists overwhelmingly either agree they don’t know where it originated, or hold it was naturally occurring … just as so many diseases of history originated before nefarious ‘government labs’.

You want to side with the conspiracy-theorist outlier scientists? Be my guest. Knock yourself out. But my point stands: the vast vast vast vast majority of known, not anonymous social media posters, credentialed, life / medical / epidemiology scientists disagree with your *beliefs*. You are the waaay outlier.

Probability is not proof, that is correct. I seem to recall my Professor drilling that into our heads the first week of class -- nothing has a probability of 100%. Indeed, but how can you really believe this tripe that the Wuhan virus just happened to occur in a bat cave that's a stone's throw from the Wuhan Institute of Virology? Of all the places that bats exist on Earth, what are the odds that the virus would originate there? Are you also going to tell me that the Chernobyl radiation leak had nothing to do with the Chernobyl nuclear reactor, or that the attack on Pearl Harbor had nothing to do with the Imperial Navy that just happened to cruising around in the vicinity? Come on, man!

Also, there's the gain of function issue which you people don't seem to want to address. And other issues as well in terms of the virus' structure. And then there's testimony from Dr. Li-Meng, who people have been incessantly trying to discredit.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Lq3_rsBJ9w

[Tulemutt]

Originally Posted by Exitus Acta Probat

Probability is not proof, that is correct. I seem to recall my Professor drilling that into our heads the first week of class -- nothing has a probability of 100%. Indeed, but how can you really believe this tripe that the Wuhan virus just happened to occur in a bat cave that's a stone's throw from the Wuhan Institute of Virology? Of all the places that bats exist on Earth, what are the odds that the virus would originate there? Are you also going to tell me that the Chernobyl radiation leak had nothing to do with the Chernobyl nuclear reactor, or that the attack on Pearl Harbor had nothing to do with the Imperial Navy that just happened to cruising around in the vicinity? Come on, man!

Also, there's the gain of function issue which you people don't seem to want to address. And other issues as well in terms of the virus' structure. And then there's testimony from Dr. Li-Meng, who people have been incessantly trying to discredit.

Who said I believe one or the other suppositions? I don’t. I can wait for confirming research. And if it never comes, I can accept we don’t know everything we want to know.

I’m also not sure it matters much, if at all.

“Gain of function issue?” What do you know about ‘gain of function’ that other, real medical research scientists don’t know to share? I’m not addressing it for the same reason I don’t pretend to know the origins of the virus.

Dr. Li-Meng huh. You got a doctor to quote who apparently holds the same *belief*. Well bully. Of course, there are overwhelmingly more doctors someone disagreeing with your *belief* can quote in opposition.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by Tulemutt

Dr. Li-Meng huh.

And her comments are from Sept., 2020, nearly TWO YEARS ago. Back when it was believed that the virus might be transmitted through touching inanimate objects.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by Finper

she’ll probably retire like Fauchi

Doubtful; she's 57. Fauci is 81.

" 'It remains unclear whether BA.5 is starting to run out of people to infect,' said Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer."

L.A. County narrowly avoided a mask mandate. Can we keep BA.5 in check?
https://www.latimes.com/california/s...d-mask-mandate

[JohnG72]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

Doubtful; she's 57. Fauci is 81.

" 'It remains unclear whether BA.5 is starting to run out of people to infect,' said Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer."

L.A. County narrowly avoided a mask mandate. Can we keep BA.5 in check?
https://www.latimes.com/california/s...d-mask-mandate

Narrowly avoided a mask mandate? Now that’s just cruel. You may have just made one or two regular posters in this thread shed a tear.

[Exitus Acta Probat]

Originally Posted by Tulemutt

Who said I believe one or the other suppositions? I don’t. I can wait for confirming research. And if it never comes, I can accept we don’t know everything we want to know.

I’m also not sure it matters much, if at all.

“Gain of function issue?” What do you know about ‘gain of function’ that other, real medical research scientists don’t know to share? I’m not addressing it for the same reason I don’t pretend to know the origins of the virus.

Dr. Li-Meng huh. You got a doctor to quote who apparently holds the same *belief*. Well bully. Of course, there are overwhelmingly more doctors someone disagreeing with your *belief* can quote in opposition.

I do not have privileged information regarding gain of function. However, it is my understanding, by virologists, that such an attribute does not occur in nature, and therefore must have been created in a lab. China even tried floating that this synthesized virus was planted in China by the U.S. Army or something like that

And yes, there are Doctors who still allege that Covid-19 is from nature. Just as there were many people who insisted that O.J. didn't kill anybody, despite the blood of Ronald and Nicole being all over his possessions, Kato hearing OJ creeping around outside the guest house, the Bronco being parked on the curb, the Bruno Magli footprints, etc.

[CA4Now]

Over the week ending Wednesday, the nation’s most populous county tallied an average of 5,200 new coronavirus infections per day, down 24% from mid-July — the apparent peak of summer’s surge. It’s “the largest drop in average case counts that we’ve seen since the end of the winter surge,” L.A. County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer told the county Board of Supervisors.

L.A. County’s weekly test positivity — the proportion of conducted and reported tests confirming coronavirus infection — also dipped from 15% a week ago to 13.7% Wednesday, officials said.

The share of emergency department visits associated with people seeking care for COVID-related symptoms has also fallen.

One major metric still not heading in the right direction, however, is deaths. Over the last week, L.A. County reported 116 COVID-19 fatalities, a 7% increase from a week ago.

“Since deaths always lag behind cases and hospitalizations, we are hopeful that the recent declines in cases and hospitalizations will bring declines in deaths in a few weeks,” Ferrer said.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...-far-from-good