[john-staten island]

Anybody who experienced the 2008 Bust might be sensing some warning signs.. Low interest rates then, still relatively low. Prices in the nations hot spots were spiking, not true in South Florida this time and Vegas seems fairly reasonable. Inventory can fluctuate, low can raise prices, high can drop...The big difference I see now is the economy is strong overall, compared to 2008. The stock market is not the economy... Baby boomers are real buyers not flippers as in 2008. Nevada is incredibly popular, warm, dry, fun, and ahem..pot... Not a gambler, but if I owned property in Vegas right now I'd feel pretty damn good about the future... NY State..not so much...

[tijlover]

Originally Posted by JonathanLB

Are you kidding? I’m curious what your reasoning is here, a city that’s just one giant sprawl with a state that has an income tax (low, but exists) and a city where there’s no Strip, not a world class city, just another city with a decent diversified economy but boring as hell otherwise. Phoenix is just a Strip-less, boring version of Vegas with more miserable summers and absolutely nothing that’s better in any way than Vegas. Even having 4 sports teams means nothing because you’d be hard pressed to root for any of those losers..

Oh Lord-ee-Bee! No Strip? Well, most locals don't go to the Strip anyway, so it may as well not be there!
Yes, Phoenix is a world-class city, an art museum puts a stamp on that, and without an art museum in Las Vegas it will never be world-class city! And a really mature, civilized city has a light rail system, which Phoenix has, which I've ridden from the Airport to downtown Phoenix and east to Mesa and Tempe. Now that really, really makes it a world-class city!

[diversityrules7]

Originally Posted by OmegaSupreme

Who's the insurance company?

$280 sounds mighty inexpensive

Allstate

[airics]

280 every 6 months through the highest cost insurer. Heck, if you went with Universal, they would pay you

[Tool Shed]

Originally Posted by OmegaSupreme

So you're saying all the people that make these forecasts, that have advanced degrees in Economics, are Economists by trade are getting it wrong? For example: https://www.forbes.com/sites/billcon...bubble-in-2019

....and that you, a modern day Nostradamus, are correct.
[ ] Makes sense

Definition of Forecast:
predict or estimate (a future event or trend).

Are you therefore predicting a housing bust or making a joke (by your own definition)?
Which is it?

Well, Bloomberg asked a dozen financial experts at the beginning of 2018 where they thought the SP 500, Dow, nasdaq, Russell 2k would be at the end of the year. All 12 of them said these indexes would finish the year higher. All 12 are very wrong. I will reiterate that forecasts are a joke.

In addition, most real estate forecasts are initiated by an entity with skin in the game, like the national association of realtors, or Zillow. These entities make money on memberships, ads, etc. if they were to tell the truth, that housing values would start to decline in 2019 (many markets already started in 18), there would be massive losses in revenues for these entities. How is a realtor going to sell a house if their own agency is telling buyers the housing prices will fall after they buy.

Facts don’t care about your feelings.

[Deuterion]

Originally Posted by Tool Shed

Well, Bloomberg asked a dozen financial experts at the beginning of 2018 where they thought the SP 500, Dow, nasdaq, Russell 2k would be at the end of the year. All 12 of them said these indexes would finish the year higher. All 12 are very wrong. I will reiterate that forecasts are a joke.

In addition, most real estate forecasts are initiated by an entity with skin in the game, like the national association of realtors, or Zillow. These entities make money on memberships, ads, etc. if they were to tell the truth, that housing values would start to decline in 2019 (many markets already started in 18), there would be massive losses in revenues for these entities. How is a realtor going to sell a house if their own agency is telling buyers the housing prices will fall after they buy.

Facts don’t care about your feelings.

Thank you. People haven’t learned their lessons yet, still pawns in the game. I’m not all about doom and gloom but when the people who control the system win no matter if we win or lose, you gotta be ready for anything. I want the best because I own property but I’m not gonna delude myself either.

[Tool Shed]

Originally Posted by john-staten island

Anybody who experienced the 2008 Bust might be sensing some warning signs.. Low interest rates then, still relatively low. Prices in the nations hot spots were spiking, not true in South Florida this time and Vegas seems fairly reasonable. Inventory can fluctuate, low can raise prices, high can drop...The big difference I see now is the economy is strong overall, compared to 2008. The stock market is not the economy... Baby boomers are real buyers not flippers as in 2008. Nevada is incredibly popular, warm, dry, fun, and ahem..pot... Not a gambler, but if I owned property in Vegas right now I'd feel pretty damn good about the future... NY State..not so much...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ffers-november

It will something look like this:

.Peak unaffordability now (high prices, higher rates, record long bull market)
.increased inventory, new home building for 10 years (happening in Vegas now, more to come in spring)
.smart sellers and builders will issue price reductions to sell as there are limited buyers at current prices
.home prices slowly trend downward
.refinancing dries up as rates are higher than before, banks/lenders lay off (already happening)
.builders slow building in markets with falling prices/too much inventory
.Some contruction workers laid off and those were good paychecks
.home flipping stops completely (hurts RE agents, construction, home improvement stores, loan officers, etc)
.purchasing of homes to use as Airbnb / vacation homes slows drastically further increasing supply.
.big companies start layoffs as economy slows (ask ford about this)
.Credit markets start to seize.
.by 2020 the huge portion of our economy known as the RE machine is in full seizure mode.
.many RE agent jobs, construction, lender, pool builder, etc paychecks are halved if not gone completely (it happened before and will again, only a small fraction will survive this)
.foreclosures spike like before, adding to the inventory further, adding to the price declines.
.discretionary spending slows dramatically outside of RE as well (cars, travel, new iPhones, dinners out)
.we realize there are many more houses for sale than ever thought possible as financially weak families move in to existing homes with financially strong families/friends.
.many large corporations issue massive layoffs, some fold completely as the credit bubble is in full deflation mode and the strong consumer is completely gone.
.recession is official but lowering interest rates again and quantitative easing won’t work as it did before.

There will be 2 options facing the country.

1. Salvage to US dollar by not slashing rates to 0 and by not doing more QE. This will require a painful recession but is required and is healthy.

2. Attempt to stimulate the economy yet again by slashing rates, deploying more QE, etc. The dollar will collapse and it will become clear that the fundamentals of our economy is extremely weak. More debt is required to service existing debt, other countries realize they won’t get paid. Massive inflation kicks in. Imported stuff (just about everything) becomes very expensive. Dollar loses reserve currency status.

Think of it like this, there is an addict addicted to opiates, you can make them happy with more opiates when they grow a fit. This is option 2. You can go trough detox and withdrawls and they can eventually get off opiates and be a normal person again. This is option 1. I predict political pressure will lead us to option 2, which is far worse in the long run.

[WestieJeff]

A million assumptions in that message. I won't even start to address them. Yes it could play out that way, but it's unlikely. "debt, other countries realize they won’t get paid" isn't going to matter. The world economy is built on debt for better or worse. Our debt situation is viewed in a lens relative to other economies and in that lens it's not that bad.

No way politicians will voluntarily let us stay in a long recession. They'll be lowering rates, QE, whatever it takes to kick that can down the road.

Originally Posted by Tool Shed

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ffers-november

It will something look like this:

[ragabnh]

Buy gold rather than keep fiat money.

[TexasRedneck]

Originally Posted by ragabnh

Buy gold rather than keep fiat money.

Or lead.....with lead, I can get anything - including the gold.