[olecapt]

Originally Posted by mooven

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Merrill Lynch forecasts nationwide U.S. home prices could decline 25% to 30% over the next three years, as new supply and weak demand weigh on the market. "This sounds dire... but would only reverse part of the unprecedented 130% price surge from 2000 to 2006," wrote economist David Rosenberg in a research note released Wednesday. Rosenberg added the S&P 500 may decline an additional 20% to 25% to breach the 1,100-point level if the market follows historical precedents at times when the U.S. economy is in recession

Merrill Lynch says U.S. nationwide home prices may fall 30% - MarketWatch

Hey those are the guys who are really good at this. They only lost a little over 14 Billion last year primarily in RE.

Merrill Lynch Writedown at $14.1 Billion

More seriously the ML paper has gotten a pretty bad review from virtually everywhere.

[jfkIII]

remember the good old days...last year...when everyone referred to this as "a correction" in the housing market???? Sounds so much better than "economic recession", doesn't it?

[sheriff]

Can any of you real estate professionals with a full 2 weeks schooling explain to us all how real estate in Las Vegas is local? What has driven the market in the last 10 years? LOSERS from other locales, bringing their equity is the ONLY reason for the past boom in LV. If you think real estate in LV is LOCAL----you will reap rewards of your knowledge.

[bumpercar]

I personally believe rules should be added to regulate a Realtor's ability to discuss market and price predictions with their clients. At the very least there should be a disclaimer (for buyer's to sign), stating that future prices are difficult to predict and that they should not rely solely on the advice of their agent. Agents should discuss what they know, the past and the present, and let the buyer use that information to make his own judgment about the future.

Originally Posted by SpedF22

Why? So you can feel better about yourself? So you can make them feel bad? What possible positive outcome would come from that? You are either a child or just never learned any humility.

[mooven]

Originally Posted by bumpercar

I personally believe rules should be added to regulate a Realtor's ability to discuss market and price predictions with their clients. At the very least there should be a disclaimer (for buyer's to sign), stating that future prices are difficult to predict and that they should not rely solely on the advice of their agent. Agents should discuss what they know, the past and the present, and let the buyer use that information to make his own judgment about the future.

As a buyer in the current market conditions, I'm starting to lean more to the conservative side of what I'm willing to offer on a house. I've read about the issue of offending a seller with a "lowball" offer but I'm starting believe that the buyer should be equally offended by a seller not willing to budge on price. Especially with all of the uncertainty in today's market.

[SpedF22]

Originally Posted by olecapt

the ML paper has gotten a pretty bad review from virtually everywhere.

That may be so, but in the areas I'm considering, there has been a 30% drop from the average individual-owned house for sale. Most of those are listed between $575-750. A 30% drop takes them to the low $400s which is where most of the bank-owned homes are listed. That drop isn't reflected in median prices because there are fewer bank-owned properties than not and only a percentage of the all the homes are actually on the market. As more foreclose or adjust their asking price to compete with foreclosures, it wouldn't surprise me to see a 30% drop.

The point I is that 30% discounts are available today. I don't think the bank-owned properties will fall 30%. In my opinion, they might fall another 10%. How much of a drop depends on where the listing started from or what number you actually think is right.

[SpedF22]

Originally Posted by Baja Boomer

1) I've said it before, but believe it bears repeating: I wouldn’t be entirely surprised to see a scenario with an echo boom (i.e. suckers rally) at some point in this mess.

I've been thinking about that, but I'm not sure exactly how it might play out because real estate is traditionally less liquid / volatile. It might be more likely based on the number of bank-owned and unoccupied homes. Price change could occur quickly with these properties.

[SpedF22]

Originally Posted by bumpercar

I personally believe rules should be added to regulate a Realtor's ability to discuss market and price predictions with their clients. At the very least there should be a disclaimer (for buyer's to sign), stating that future prices are difficult to predict and that they should not rely solely on the advice of their agent. Agents should discuss what they know, the past and the present, and let the buyer use that information to make his own judgment about the future.

I didn't disagree with the content of Bull's post but rather the tone. If he had stated exactly what you said, I wouldn't have said anything (other than maybe you have a good idea).

[SpedF22]

Originally Posted by mooven

As a buyer in the current market conditions, I'm starting to lean more to the conservative side of what I'm willing to offer on a house. I've read about the issue of offending a seller with a "lowball" offer but I'm starting believe that the buyer should be equally offended by a seller not willing to budge on price. Especially with all of the uncertainty in today's market.

I agree completely. I saw a house listed for $182 PSF which was probably reasonably priced 2-3 yrs ago. I told the listing agent about houses that had sold in the neighborhood for less than $120 PSF. Then she made a comment about insulting the owners. To which I responded that folks shouldn't be insulted by fair offers because, in my opinion, their house wasn't worth more than $140 PSF.

[mooven]

Originally Posted by SpedF22

I told the listing agent about houses that had sold in the neighborhood for less than $120 PSF.

What's the best avenue for finding prices of recently sold homes in a neighborhood. I think trulia.com and zillow.com list some but it doesn't seem very current. Do I have to rely on my realtor to obtain this data? Or is there an easy way for the general public to access this info? I've been trying the tax assessor website but was hoping for something more intuitive, possibly with a map feature.

Thanks