[airics]

so, under $100 per sf for a 2004 home is great, correct?

[Eric Young]

Originally Posted by airics

so, under $100 per sf for a 2004 home is great, correct?

Across the valley, fewer than 1 in 58 homes is available for under $100 PSF. The overwhelming majority are bank-owned or offered as a short sale. Of course, whether $100 PSF is a great deal depends on location.

In Aliante, $90 or $95 PSF in Aliante is a great deal if the home is in perfect shape (some have never been lived in). In Summerlin, you should grab anything under $135 PSF even if it’s needs some work.

Still, here’s an overview for anyone interested…

Total detached existing SFR homes in Las Vegas, North Las Vegas and Henderson: 18,114

Total above $100 PSF: 17,811
Total below $100 PSF: 303 (1.7%)

Ten Years Old or Newer:
Total above $100 PSF: 10,767
Total below $100 PSF: 169 (1.6%)

Five Years Old or Newer:
Total above $100 PSF: 6791
Total below $100 PSF: 148 (2.2%)

Two Years Old or Newer:
Total above $100 PSF: 2373
Total below $100 PSF: 58 (2.5%)

The fact that newer homes are more likely to be priced below $100 PSF is reflective of the fact that newer homes are more likely to be bank-owned. Also noteworthy is that, of the 58 homes that are under two years old, 54 are in North Las Vegas (the other four are along the edge of the southernmost portion of development in the valley).

Finally, if you remove the short sales from consideration (because they are usually priced without the seller or the agent actually knowing whether the bank will even approve the short sale, much less the price asked), you lose about half the homes being offered at under $100 PSF.

[airics]

so where in aliante can you find a home for $90sf, it doesnt exist.... that means a 2000sf home is $180000

[Eric Young]

Originally Posted by airics

so where in aliante can you find a home for $90sf, it doesnt exist.... that means a 2000sf home is $180000

There are 236 homes in Aliante currently being offered for sale. Ten are asking less that $100 PSF, including the following:

1. A two year-old home with 3790 SF is currently available for $320,000 ($84 PSF).

2. A two year-old home with 2132 SF is currently available for $205,000 ($96 PSF).

In some areas, properties that are dramatically below comps go within a few days. In others - and Aliante is one of them - they'll move, but you usually still can offer below what is being asked. My guess is that the both of these properties may well receive offers within the next 15 - 75 days, but an offer at 90% - 95% of asking price would be accepted.

So I think my first example can be purchased for $305,000 ($80 PSF) and my second example can be purchased for $195,000 ($91 PSF).

I used to live just a couple of miles south of Aliante, I've worked with the city council on development issues, I was the city's representative to the county board on Yucca Mountain, I was president of a NLV HOA with 2400 residents - and I'm one of only 8 agents (out of 20,000 people with a RE license) to have at least 5 sales and 5 buys in North Las Vegas in 2004, 2005 and 2006. I know there are people smarter than me but I don't think that too many know NLV values much better than I do.

If you'd like to see the fliers for the Aliante homes I've identified, send me an email or print out the post and your agent can easily look them up.

Airics, please don't take what I'm saying to be an implication on rental rates or even on the ultimate median sale price of a home in Aliante. I've written extensively here and on the RE forum of this site that I believe we are approaching the bottom of the downturn. In advance of a bottom is when the best deals are available for buyers because distressed sellers (in this case, banks) can't presume that a bottom is approaching.

Note that these < $100 PSF properties represent less than 5% of all Aliante homes currently being offered. Since November 1st, there have been 34 homes sold in Aliante, six of which closed for less than $100 PSF (18%).

Clearly, the ultra-low priced properties are selling relatively briskly, but 82% of the homes that people are buying in Aliante are going for more than $100 PSF.

One final note - I did not include properties in the age-restricted portion of Aliante in my numbers nor did I include any attached housing.

[SpedF22]

Originally Posted by Eric Young

I know there are people smarter than me but I don't think that too many know NLV values much better than I do.

I was looking at houses in Club Aliante today and prices are all over the map. We saw anything from 111 PSF to 217 PSF. There were obvious differences in the properties but come on - double?

[Eric Young]

Originally Posted by SpedF22

I was looking at houses in Club Aliante today and prices are all over the map. We saw anything from 111 PSF to 217 PSF. There were obvious differences in the properties but come on - double?

That's exactly what I'm encountering, as well.

I was showing properties in a development yesterday that is about 300 yards outside of Aliante - asking prices for the same 2-year old 2300-SF model ranged from $275,000 to over $400,000. Obviously, we didn't bother looking at anything above the low $300's, but there's no way I could let my buyer even consider the higher-priced ones without a psychological examination first.

The best one (by far) was asking the least - $275,000.

The difference is that the properly-priced homes are being sold by the banks...the improperly priced homes are being sold by humans (that bought two years ago for $375k and above).

One thing worth noting is that, if X% of homes on the market are, in effect, ridiculously overpriced, the "months supply" of properly priced homes is not nearly as huge as the statistics that we're reading (and that I'm guilty of publicizing).

While there's a 20-month supply of homes on the market, off the top of my head, I'd put the supply of properly-priced homes closer to 3 to 6 months.

By the way, welcome to the board, SpedF22...do you play with the jets?

[sheriff]

Originally Posted by SpedF22

I was looking at houses in Club Aliante today and prices are all over the map. We saw anything from 111 PSF to 217 PSF. There were obvious differences in the properties but come on - double?

Are we beginning to see truly motivated sellers, as opposed to market testers?

[Eric Young]

Originally Posted by sheriff

Are we beginning to see truly motivated sellers, as opposed to market testers?

They're here, Sheriff.

Their names are DeutscheBank, Countrywide, Bank of New York and Wells Fargo and they're extremely motivated.

[sheriff]

Originally Posted by Eric Young

They're here, Sheriff.

Their names are DeutscheBank, Countrywide, Bank of New York and Wells Fargo and they're extremely motivated.

Doesn't surprise me, as an institution profits on the needs or wants of others. But won't those with the means necessary wait until prices negate the appreciation rate of the last 5 years or so? Sure, the growth in LV will produce new jobs, but only a very small % will be able to qualify, even those lucky enough to bring equity from other areas. As the tip, and under-the-table income capitol of the USA, LV will really feel the pinch of sensible-only loans---do you agree?

[sheriff]

Originally Posted by Eric Young

They're here, Sheriff.

Their names are DeutscheBank, Countrywide, Bank of New York and Wells Fargo and they're extremely motivated.

By the way, do you envision LV becoming a loan market similar to Beverly Hills; due to the large amount of "case by case" applicants? Or, is corporate accountability of utmost importance?