Champion Forest/Memorial Northwest/Windrose - Why so cheap?? (Houston: HOA, buying a house)

[professorsenator]

Originally Posted by Jamesww

Houston will see higher appreciation than boston area over next ten years as long as they continue to diversify their economy

Do you mean Houston diversification or Boston diversification? Boston's economy is much more diversified than Houston. Oil and gas are the 800lb. gorilla driving the Bayou City (with medicine a distant second). Boston's economy, OTOH, is driven by financial services, academia, hi-tech R and D, medicine and medical technology manufacturing, government, commercial fishing and food processing, and a huge tourism business.

[Mom2Feebs]

Originally Posted by professorsenator

Do you mean Houston diversification or Boston diversification? Boston's economy is much more diversified than Houston. Oil and gas are the 800lb. gorilla driving the Bayou City (with medicine a distant second). Boston's economy, OTOH, is driven by financial services, academia, hi-tech R and D, medicine and medical technology manufacturing, government, commercial fishing and food processing, and a huge tourism business.

I'm sorry, I'm going to have to nail you on this one. Though our economy is growing exponentially because of the latest in oil and gas, it isn't even close to being the ONLY thing driving it.

Medicine doesn't come in at a distant second in Houston; we have the largest medical center in the world, and two of those hospitals are consistently ranked in the top two cancer hospitals in the world.

The Port of Houston is the largest in tonnage moving in and out; it is the 6th largest port in the world.

We may not be catching cod, but we're one of the largest distributors of blue crab, shrimp, snapper, and oysters in the United States. We have quite a sizable fishing industry just 50 miles south of us, you know-in the lil' ol' Gulf of Mexico?

We don't have Harvard, BC or BU, but we have Rice (nothing to sneeze at there), University of Texas, University of St. Thomas, University of Houston, even Texas A&M has classes up in The Woodlands, and we're home to the 4th largest community college system in the United States. I think academia can hold its own here.

Boston definitely has a leg up on Houston in some ways (for instance, I love the history), but it simply cannot be compared. Period. We're bigger, and in many ways, better.

But then, I'm a little biased, and I think you're a little brave (or, brazen, as the case may be).

[EasilyAmused]

I've just read a whole bunch of articles on how Boston is now a buyer's market and the bubble has popped. Central Houston keeps pushing higher because everyone is moving here from Cali, Louisiana and New England. Central Houston hasn't been a buyers market in years. Even areas that people wouldn't touch before are starting to see prices in the 300k and up category. In this ever growing city we are getting people who hate driving, so there is no where to go except to reclaim forgotten neighborhoods. I am excited to see the desification within the Beltway occuring.

To the original OP: I think anything on 1960 and south will be ok. I do think at some point in the near future,as Houston densifies, whomever has the biggest lot will "win." I think Memorial NW looks like a bargain.

[tstone]

Oil/gas/chemical is the 800 lb gorilla that drives Houston's economy. This gorilla is going to fall off the tree, I can guarantee it. Houston will be left suffering, because many other fields of business depend on the business that OG&C creates!!! It's like a hierarchy of sorts. Take down the top dog, and the rest of the pack temporarily falls apart. Although I don't think we will be struggling as bad as ~20 yrs ago due to diversification, it will still be rough. But that's in the long term.

IMO the medical field is more like the 600 lb gorilla. There is never going to be a shortage of work in this field, but that's because it is even more specialized than engineering. (Hillary-care may screw it up, but that's neither here nor there. ) I realize I'm living in my own little bubble here, but our block is full of people who are basically either in engineering or in the medical profession, and there are definitely more people in engineering than medical!

I predict in the next 7 years, the oil bubble will burst. The folks in the medical profession will keep on doing what they do. The engineering people will either be laid off or, if they are lucky enough to be with a large, diversified company (e.g. mining/metals, telecoms, civil/structural, etc), move to where the money is. Maybe play the long-distance landlording game or sell out to someone in the medical field.

For now OG&C is where a near-30 yr old can easily make a 6 digit salary. Only time will tell the rest of the story...

[Mom2Feebs]

Originally Posted by tstone

Oil/gas/chemical is the 800 lb gorilla that drives Houston's economy. This gorilla is going to fall off the tree, I can guarantee it. Houston will be left suffering, because many other fields of business depend on the business that OG&C creates!!! It's like a hierarchy of sorts. Take down the top dog, and the rest of the pack temporarily falls apart. Although I don't think we will be struggling as bad as ~20 yrs ago due to diversification, it will still be rough. But that's in the long term.

IMO the medical field is more like the 600 lb gorilla. There is never going to be a shortage of work in this field, but that's because it is even more specialized than engineering. (Hillary-care may screw it up, but that's neither here nor there. ) I realize I'm living in my own little bubble here, but our block is full of people who are basically either in engineering or in the medical profession, and there are definitely more people in engineering than medical!

I predict in the next 7 years, the oil bubble will burst. The folks in the medical profession will keep on doing what they do. The engineering people will either be laid off or, if they are lucky enough to be with a large, diversified company (e.g. mining/metals, telecoms, civil/structural, etc), move to where the money is. Maybe play the long-distance landlording game or sell out to someone in the medical field.

For now OG&C is where a near-30 yr old can easily make a 6 digit salary. Only time will tell the rest of the story...

If it were an 800 lb gorilla, tstone, we wouldn't have anything with which to back up our economy. It would be a lot like the 80's, and I hope to God we learned something from that. You said yourself that medical is second, so yeah--we may take a small hit from energy co's, it won't be the downfall of our city like it was back in the day.

As for 7 years, jeez, tell us something we don't already know! I mean, that's pretty vague and kinda obvious, hey, the bubble will burst SOME time in the future... oh, ya think?

[tstone]

Originally Posted by Mom2Feebs

If it were an 800 lb gorilla, tstone, we wouldn't have anything with which to back up our economy. It would be a lot like the 80's, and I hope to God we learned something from that. You said yourself that medical is second, so yeah--we may take a small hit from energy co's, it won't be the downfall of our city like it was back in the day.

As for 7 years, jeez, tell us something we don't already know! I mean, that's pretty vague and kinda obvious, hey, the bubble will burst SOME time in the future... oh, ya think?

Yeah, 7 years is vague, but I still think in 4 years there will be some work to be had. But who knows? It was just a guess.

BTW, I never said the 2 gorillas couldn't live together. We've got enough room here.

[Mom2Feebs]

That's right! LOL! Plenty of room, that's for sure.

[professorsenator]

Originally Posted by Mom2Feebs

I'm sorry, I'm going to have to nail you on this one. Though our economy is growing exponentially because of the latest in oil and gas, it isn't even close to being the ONLY thing driving it.

Perhaps you should read this essay on the economy of Houston. Note the heavy dependence on the oil business (and related industry):
Economy of Houston - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Yes, the real estate bubble has burst here and it is now a buyers market. However, while Houston real estate was seeing 3-5% annual gains over the past few years, the Boston metro area saw a tripling in values. If you'd have bought the same priced house in Houston and Boston in 1995, you'd be much, much further ahead of the game in Boston today, even after the bust. Texans love to console themselves (accurately) that real estate isn't as bad now as it is in other places, but they overlook the fact that other parts of country (like Boston) were blowing Texas away in appreciation for years, and we're still way ahead in valuations.

BTW, comparing Houston to Boston on higher ed is like comparing icebergs in Kansas and Alaska. In the metro Boston area one finds:
Havard U.
MIT
Tufts U.
Babson Coll.
Boston U.
Boston Coll.
Brandeis U.
Northeastern U.
UMass-Boston
Olin Coll.
Suffolk U.
Emerson Coll.
Bentley Coll.
Stonehill Coll.
New England Conservatory
Berklee School of Music
Wellesley Coll.
...just to name a few.

[EasilyAmused]

[quote=professorsenator;2565610]

Yes, the real estate bubble has burst here and it is now a buyers market.
quote]

Umm, depends what price range and where you are looking. There isn't much in affordable (ie under 500,000) inventory in the western corridor. They all still need updating. They're even less in the 500-1 million category. And the few that are affordable are usually on a corner or back to a busy street or are close to an undesirable street or within a block or two of I-10. When there is no inventory, I don't think you can say the bubble burst, it would be flat.
If you want to drive 20 miles out of town its a candy shop for buyers. But usually 20 minutes out of town isn't even Houston anymore.

[Mom2Feebs]

Originally Posted by professorsenator

Perhaps you should read this essay on the economy of Houston. Note the heavy dependence on the oil business (and related industry):
Economy of Houston - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Yes, the real estate bubble has burst here and it is now a buyers market. However, while Houston real estate was seeing 3-5% annual gains over the past few years, the Boston metro area saw a tripling in values. If you'd have bought the same priced house in Houston and Boston in 1995, you'd be much, much further ahead of the game in Boston today, even after the bust. Texans love to console themselves (accurately) that real estate isn't as bad now as it is in other places, but they overlook the fact that other parts of country (like Boston) were blowing Texas away in appreciation for years, and we're still way ahead in valuations.

BTW, comparing Houston to Boston on higher ed is like comparing icebergs in Kansas and Alaska. In the metro Boston area one finds:
Havard U.
MIT
Tufts U.
Babson Coll.
Boston U.
Boston Coll.
Brandeis U.
Northeastern U.
UMass-Boston
Olin Coll.
Suffolk U.
Emerson Coll.
Bentley Coll.
Stonehill Coll.
New England Conservatory
Berklee School of Music
Wellesley Coll.
...just to name a few.

I wasn't "comparing". It seems you are the only one that feels compelled to do that. I was just trying to say we're not uneducated hicks here. Yes, I know all about Massachusetts' schools, my mother went to school there, in Auburndale.

I find your posts to be very...well...challenging, rather arrogant, and rude. I'm not sure why you are even posting anything having to do with comparing Boston to Houston, in (or out) of this thread. This topic doesn't even have anything to do with Boston, period.

It just sounds like you're on a mission, whatever that mission may be--it's severely misguided. Houston is a great city. Boston is a great city. They are apples and oranges, and as I said before, there are good things and bad things about both. It seems you can't bring yourself to admit that, you just keep harping on how much more of a bada*s city Boston is. The truth is, most people here in Houston don't really give Boston a second thought in the grand scheme of things. This is Texas, after all, and we're the 4th largest city in the nation. We have other things to think about.

On this subject, I'll say no more. On the original topic, if we could get back to it, my pick would go to Champions/Champions Forest. I love it there, for all the reasons noted here so far.