All of GA Urban centers grew!

[masonbauknight]

Originally Posted by JMatl

You severely overstate this 'dire situation' with Macon, and to include it with Albany is ridiculous. After Savannah, they have the best Downtown bones of all the 2nd tier cities in the State. And you are giving more credit to the OMB than they deserve. In another idiotic move, they separated Raleigh and Durham.

OK, I'll admit it: Albany is truly dire and Macon is not. But "sluggish", "lackluster", and "anemic" growth compared to all the other 2nd tiers? Yes. Note: I never stated that OMB/U.S. Census is a divine couple, but I trust their analysis far more than tall tales about a deceased mayor's lobbying for, and getting, a separate MSA for WR. As for Macon's "downtown bones," that has nothing to do with a dynamic city. Savannah always had the best "bones" in the state, which didn't prevent it from being the weakest GA metro from 1960 until 1990, and it really was.

[midgeorgiaman]

I think it is a continuation of people moving to larger areas. Small family farms are struggling to compete with the big guys and many young people have to move from smaller towns for employment options.

As far as the Macon Warner Robins thing.....I work in Macon with more people from Warner Robins commuting. The real reason WR is its own metro is because of Robins AFB and its associated contractor jobs. Yes, there are those who want nothing to do with the other city,, but that seems to be changing.. There are specific rules for two similar sized cities to be the same metro based on cross commuting and we don't meet it. I don't think it matters much. Most of the warehouse and industrial growth has been in South Bibb between Macon and WR to easily draw workers from both. Bibb schools are not the choice of many families which is driving much of the growth for families into WR and Houston County. Macon is drawing more young professionals to its downtown, in fact many of the younger military officers and defense workers are choosing Macon due to its downtown and associated activities. WR has a lot going for it as a great family town, but those not in the family mode yet struggle to stay entertained there. I think the two cities complement each other more now than ever. It is unique to the Fall Line cities. I don't find Macon sluggish or lackluster at all. I never will understand people who say they are bored though. I stay occupied outside of work with multiple events and activities each week. There is a ton to do. Of course, in moving around the country, I always embraced what I found in a new town and found meeting people to be easy. I think it is a mindset thing, but that is another topic.

[BullochResident]

Houston County- 163k (+17% over 2010)
Bibb County- 157k (+1% over 2010)


If both join together, then Houston County will now be the anchor county, not Bibb.

[midgeorgiaman]

Originally Posted by BullochResident

Houston County- 163k (+17% over 2010)
Bibb County- 157k (+1% over 2010)


If both join together, then Houston County will now be the anchor county, not Bibb.

Not unprecedented and wouldn't matter. The Norfolk , Virginia area is anchored by Norfolk, the cultural and historic center, but Virginia Beach (suburban) has more people and is listed first. Same for the North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota metro. I have never heard of North Port. A bunch of others in Florida: Cape Coral-Fort Myers. Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormand Beach. Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville. I think of Fort Myers, Daytona Beach, and Melbourne as the anchor cities, but they are eclipsed in population by their neighbors and thus not listed first. Outside of the census, does anyone actually care? Fun to talk about on here, but I doubt any business or prospective resident gives it much thought.

[masonbauknight]

Originally Posted by midgeorgiaman

Not unprecedented and wouldn't matter. The Norfolk , Virginia area is anchored by Norfolk, the cultural and historic center, but Virginia Beach (suburban) has more people and is listed first. Same for the North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota metro. I have never heard of North Port. A bunch of others in Florida: Cape Coral-Fort Myers. Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormand Beach. Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville...

You are correct -- not unprecedented and not even harmful for a city, but BullochRes points out the main problem for Macon: the numbers, which are just not good for a Sun Belt metro. Macon's core county and four suburban counties showed either flat growth or (in three out of five counties) NEGATIVE growth from 2010 to 2020. Macon compares with Montgomery, Mobile, or Jackson rather than to the other two fall-line GA cities of Augusta and Columbus. This is a bad 10-year trend, period. Compare it to Savannah (core country up 11%, both suburban counties up 23 and 47%), or Houston County/WR (+17%) or Bulloch County/Statesboro (+15.5%) and it's more than just a detail: it's a major discrepancy. Yes, Macon has a good downtown, but so do Athens and Gainesville. It doesn't change Macon's bad demographic numbers, even in Bibb County, and it means that the chances of re-joining Macon and Warner Robins this decade into one MSA are nil. It's more likely we'll see the state's other second-tier MSAs gain a county or two in 2023 or 2024.

[midgeorgiaman]

Originally Posted by masonbauknight

You are correct -- not unprecedented and not even harmful for a city, but BullochRes points out the main problem for Macon: the numbers, which are just not good for a Sun Belt metro. Macon's core county and four suburban counties showed either flat growth or (in three out of five counties) NEGATIVE growth from 2010 to 2020. Macon compares with Montgomery, Mobile, or Jackson rather than to the other two fall-line GA cities of Augusta and Columbus. This is a bad 10-year trend, period. Compare it to Savannah (core country up 11%, both suburban counties up 23 and 47%), or Houston County/WR (+17%) or Bulloch County/Statesboro (+15.5%) and it's more than just a detail: it's a major discrepancy. Yes, Macon has a good downtown, but so do Athens and Gainesville. It doesn't change Macon's bad demographic numbers, even in Bibb County, and it means that the chances of re-joining Macon and Warner Robins this decade into one MSA are nil. It's more likely we'll see the state's other second-tier MSAs gain a county or two in 2023 or 2024.

Well, the yearly projections each year had Macon-Bibb losing population each year through 2019 so I see it as a positive that the census showed growth. Richmond County showed low growth too probably for the same reasons as Bibb....the schools. Young families in Augusta go to Columbia County. Young families here choose Houston primarily. The numbers are what they are, but in living in Macon since 2006 and middle Georgia since 2003, I see lots of positive progress.

[JMatl]

Originally Posted by midgeorgiaman

Not unprecedented and wouldn't matter. The Norfolk , Virginia area is anchored by Norfolk, the cultural and historic center, but Virginia Beach (suburban) has more people and is listed first. Same for the North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota metro. I have never heard of North Port. A bunch of others in Florida: Cape Coral-Fort Myers. Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormand Beach. Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville. I think of Fort Myers, Daytona Beach, and Melbourne as the anchor cities, but they are eclipsed in population by their neighbors and thus not listed first. Outside of the census, does anyone actually care? Fun to talk about on here, but I doubt any business or prospective resident gives it much thought.

No, they don't care in the real world - nor should they. The main civic infrastructure, major medical centers, etc. remain in the original anchor City/County.

[J2rescue]

Originally Posted by JMatl

You severely overstate this 'dire situation' with Macon, and to include it with Albany is ridiculous. After Savannah, they have the best Downtown bones of all the 2nd tier cities in the State. And you are giving more credit to the OMB than they deserve. In another idiotic move, they separated Raleigh and Durham.

Metropolitan areas are not determined by "decision". It's purely statistical data. There are many similar instances around the country where there is an obvious relationship between adjacent job centers but they are simply not strong enough to meet the 2010 criteria of a single MSA. The same statistical threshold is applied in every city.

A county qualifies as an outlying county of a CBSA if it meets the following commuting requirements:
(a) At least 25 percent of the workers living in the county work in the central county or counties of the CBSA; or
(b) At least 25 percent of the employment in the county is accounted for by workers who reside in the central
county or counties of the CBSA.

The fact that there is a relationship between adjacent metro areas is covered by the CSA category.

Any two adjacent CBSAs will form a Combined Statistical Area if the
employment interchange measure between the two areas is at least 15.

If Macon/Warner Robins become a single MSA, Macon being by far the largest urban area would still be first in the metro designation. Since most of the job growth appears to be in Houston County, there would probably have to be a lot more commuting from Bibb to Houston for this to happen.

[masonbauknight]

Originally Posted by J2rescue

Metropolitan areas are not determined by "decision". It's purely statistical data. There are many similar instances around the country where there is an obvious relationship between adjacent job centers but they are simply not strong enough to meet the 2010 criteria of a single MSA. The same statistical threshold is applied in every city.



The fact that there is a relationship between adjacent metro areas is covered by the CSA category.



If Macon/Warner Robins become a single MSA, Macon being by far the largest urban area would still be first in the metro designation. Since most of the job growth appears to be in Houston County, there would probably have to be a lot more commuting from Bibb to Houston for this to happen.

Metropolitan Statistical Areas are named for all core cities of 50,000+, the largest first. (Statistical areas whose largest city falls under 50,000 are Micropolitan Statistical Areas.) So if Macon and Warner Robins are ever joined again, the name would be "Macon-Bibb-Warner Robins MSA" -- unless Warner Robins consolidates with Houston County and exceeds Macon-Bibb in population. Then, the order would be officially reversed by OMB.

I agree with your post: The OMB definitions are statistics-based. They're not arbitrary, and each statistical area faces the same criteria that others do. That's why I took issue with an earlier poster who claims that Warner Robins' mayor had lobbied for a separate MSA. That's impossible. What mayors can do is push for annexation to increase population in their city. I suspect that Charleston embraced some minor annexation over the last decade so that the city could pass Columbia to become South Carolina's largest city. Also important: to stay ahead of North Charleston. The very thought of a "North Charleston-Charleston SC Metropolitan Statistical Area" probably kept City Hall up at night. A proud city is a proud city.