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I'm not entirely sure what you mean, but it was a fairly popular prediction on this forum and elsewhere that the 2020 census was going to reveal that New York state had lost around a million people or so. While a 4.2% population growth for New York is still a fair bit below the US average of 7.2%, the actual results are still far more positive than the predictions were.
I'm not entirely sure what you mean, but it was a fairly popular prediction on this forum and elsewhere that the 2020 census was going to reveal that New York state had lost around a million people or so. While a 4.2% population growth for New York is still a fair bit below the US average of 7.2%, the actual results are still far more positive than the predictions were.
I think what that merely means was less people moved away than thought, not that the mortality rate of the state was high. Personally I thought you were referring to something covid related because officials were caught fudging numbers to make the mortality rate seem lower.
I think what that merely means was less people moved away than thought, not that the mortality rate of the state was high. Personally I thought you were referring to something covid related because officials were caught fudging numbers to make the mortality rate seem lower.
I think the larger point is that the state was underestimated during the 2010-2019 period. This occurred with some NY areas last decade as well.
I think what that merely means was less people moved away than thought, not that the mortality rate of the state was high. Personally I thought you were referring to something covid related because officials were caught fudging numbers to make the mortality rate seem lower.
The greater SLC area is way larger than greater Albuquerque. There's over 2.6 million people in Greater SLC, while greater Albuquerque (including Santa Fe) is less than half that size. There's more people in greater SLC than all of NM.
Great SLC is not 2.6 million. That is the US Census bureau definition for CSA which is a far wider and a more challenged metric for areas to be seen as highly co-dependent. The SLC Metropolitan Statistical Area is less than half that at 1,232,696. I've been to Austin, Charlotte, San Antonio and Portland, all are in the 2.3 to 2.8 million range for MSAs and if you been to SLC and to any of the others listed here, one can easily see the latter is nowhere as large/dense. Its 45 miles downtown to downtown SLC to Provo. That's farther than Dallas to Fort Worth (30 miles), D.C. to Baltimore (40miles) and only 3 miles shorter than S.F. to San Jose, the latter are thus, separate MSAs but included as part of a CSA.
I haven't seen sufficient reason to think the estimates for these areas are going to be off by much, but it is close.
There is one X-factor I am tracking and waiting for in the Atlanta area and we will find out around 2023. It is what the official boundaries of the MSAs will be like.
I looked at the commuter flow data for 2011-2015 and Gainesville MSA and Atlanta MSA are extremely close to becoming one using the 25% commuter benchmark from Hall County into the core Atlanta MSA counties.
While I really consider Gainesville to be it's own city of influence in its own right, Southern Hall County is very much suburban growth from Atlanta and it has been under rapid growth, similar to other nearby exurban areas to a large extent. I expect this to be close, perhaps a 50-50 chance.
It will be a 200k swing in the MSA, because everything is determined by the way the county boundaries are drawn. If we could magically re-draw such boundaries, my guess is about 1/3 of the population belongs to Metro Atlanta and has for some time and the rest really pre-existed and belongs to Gainesville.
While some more distant exurban counties might be added or taken away, this is the one major change to track for Atlanta for 2020 or 2030.
I haven't processed any information for places like Reading, PA.
Gainesville won't be added to Atlanta's MSA. Its nearly 55 miles distance between downtowns and there is low density and daily shared commuting traffic between the two. As an example Baltimore/DC, SF/San Jose, are closer to each other than ATL to Gainesville, by 10 to 14 miles, yet all four cities are still considered separate MSAs. Farthest city in the Phila. MSA is Wilmington, DE, about 31 miles south.
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