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He wanted to influence Kiev and couldn't get it done.
Correct. This isn't about NATO, EU, ego, power, revenge, Minsk, or the Soviet Union.
This is about Putin trying to control and influence Kiev. He couldn't do it and it drove him crazy. He is willing to invade to get control of it. I imagine if North Korea declared a commitment to democracy and western allies, China would be invading them too.
Correct. This isn't about NATO, EU, ego, power, revenge, Minsk, or the Soviet Union.
This is about Putin trying to control and influence Kiev. He couldn't do it and it drove him crazy. He is willing to invade to get control of it. I imagine if North Korea declared a commitment to democracy and western allies, China would be invading them too.
At this point Putin is *thinking* about * peacefully negotiating with Kiev* so it would cease the hostile military actions in Donbass, against the newly-recognized republics.
Zelensky is in position to do that. If he tries the 'people' will riot.
My gut feeling, the default scenario is to defend the rump parts of the two oblasts, maybe expand to include their entirety. Was it you who mentioned that they are no bigger than some US counties?
Anything beyond that would be bold and depend on circumstances, like local pro-Russian revolts in, say, Mariupol.
Sometimes I think that Biden simply downright wants the war between Russia and Ukraine, with as many body bags as possible.
Russia is the favorite enemy of Washington's political establishment. I suspect that has several reasons:
(1) Offense taken over Russia's visible opposition vs various U.S. plays in the Middle East and Central Asia
(2) Belief that a regime change in Russia could break Russia's opposition to submitting to the Western-led international order i.e. the notion that a "Democratic Russia" could fulfill the plans pursued in the 90s when Russia's eventual entry into NATO and EU was hoped for.
(3) Liberal anger at Russia's social conservatism (LGBT issues primarily) leading to many liberals believing the Russian people need to be liberated from Putin
(4) Lack of respect for Russia as a economic power in relative terms to China. The big corporate giants in the U.S. can afford war vs Russia, but not vs China.
(5) Familiar Cold War paradigm with many analysts, politicians etc. being used to viewing Russia as 'the enemy' and thus easily falling back into those patterns of behavior
(6) Russia's tacit and mostly verbal support for anti-establishment political causes in the West both on the Left or Right (see Democrats' obsession with Trump's views on Russia).
You're beating around the bush but not quite hitting it, the real reason why Russia is such an easy target for the west is because it's white (for the most part). Or in other words: Russia isn't retarded enough to be favoured by the left and to some extend the right wing in America. If it was a very religious black country in Africa where "witches" are burnt with tire around the neck it will be considered "racist" against their culture or whatever idiotism they can come up.
And just by the way: Russia is sometimes ranked as the world's richest country in natural resources, something Biden and his son wouldn't mind to have...no surprise really seeing how it's the largest country -> oil, gold, diamonds...
Correct. This isn't about NATO, EU, ego, power, revenge, Minsk, or the Soviet Union.
This is about Putin trying to control and influence Kiev. He couldn't do it and it drove him crazy. He is willing to invade to get control of it. I imagine if North Korea declared a commitment to democracy and western allies, China would be invading them too.
Tell me..Why such primitive nonsense? do you really think that?
Russia is the favorite enemy of Washington's political establishment. I suspect that has several reasons:
(1) Offense taken over Russia's visible opposition vs various U.S. plays in the Middle East and Central Asia
(2) Belief that a regime change in Russia could break Russia's opposition to submitting to the Western-led international order i.e. the notion that a "Democratic Russia" could fulfill the plans pursued in the 90s when Russia's eventual entry into NATO and EU was hoped for.
(3) Liberal anger at Russia's social conservatism (LGBT issues primarily) leading to many liberals believing the Russian people need to be liberated from Putin
(4) Lack of respect for Russia as a economic power in relative terms to China. The big corporate giants in the U.S. can afford war vs Russia, but not vs China.
(5) Familiar Cold War paradigm with many analysts, politicians etc. being used to viewing Russia as 'the enemy' and thus easily falling back into those patterns of behavior
(6) Russia's tacit and mostly verbal support for anti-establishment political causes in the West both on the Left or Right (see Democrats' obsession with Trump's views on Russia).
I'm leaning towards that, that the West needs war.Our Western partners have never come out of the crisis without a big war.. It's such a golden bottom., and debts with problems, it's so convenient to write off and start again "from scratch"..
I agree about the body bags and Ukrainians: US policy makers don’t care - up to a certain point - how much Ukrainian territory stays in or goes back to the Russian fold, as long as it comes at the highest possible price, for both Russians and Ukrainians.
As for Poland, they are currently involved in a dispute with EU concerning Poland’s judicial laws, even to the point where EU is withholding funds.
I am aware of that, yes.
The way I see it - Poland is in difficult situation as usual.
I can understand where it doesn't fit in the modern EU with Northern European countries going woke.
Because truth to be told, Polish culture comes across as a conservative one; with other words much closer to Russians. ( To be honest, I can't even point at the difference between Polish middle class and the Russian one. The STATE policies are clashing of course immensely from the medieval times, but CULTURALLY these two are pretty close. Russians overall are just stronger in character for a number of reasons.)
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Poland could stand to gain most among formally EU countries from a derelict western Ukraine, as opposed to Germany and EU as a unit, with an emphasis on EU as a political entity which is under a lot of strain, internally and externally, economically, politically, militarily.
Normally I would think that Poland SHOULD gain from taking Western Ukraine in, except for two points;
A. While part of Western Ukrainians I am sure would be happy from being acquired, I am not sure about the Nationalist part. ( The Nazi boyz with swastikas on their arses. After all, in their drive for having "their own Ukrainian state," they are known for massacring Poles, and not just Jews during the WWII.
So I am not sure how such acquisition would play out in this respect.
B. And another unknown factor to me, is I am not sure just how much Polish economy is really dependent on EU and Germany in particular.
Because if Poland goes against increasingly woke Germany, and acquires Western Ukraine, while woke Germany wants Ukraine to remain united - it all becomes a big question.
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From a broader geopolitical perspective, US policy makers are succeeding in “balkanizing” the entire European continent, with some half-willing, half-reluctant formally EU junior partners, and one of their best junior partners in EU is Poland, even also Lithuania and the like.
I don't think it's even the intended consequences.
Because the intention I think was to turn Ukraine in the anti-Russian project, and to strengthen this whole anti-Russian "Polish block" - i.e. Lithuania, Baltic countries + ( potentially) Ukraine and Belorussia.
But this plan backfired. Washington miscalculated. ( They need to start firing its consultants from the Ivy league Universities, seriously. They showed their incompetency in the knowledge/understanding of the area.)
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To put it another way, the promise of the EU, while not a total failure, has disappointed, while NATO appears stronger and more relevant.
I am not sure what to say about that one at this point.
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To put it another way, the western economies have stalled in terms of internal organic growth, they need external expansion, and, led by US/NATO, they view Ukraine, other smaller entities in Caucuses region, and eventually Russia itself as easy pickings, almost as easy as illegal immigration internally and semi-slave labor in Asia.
When it comes to European countries, I've said it before and I'll repeat it again.
RUSSIA was that ultimate opportunity for external expansion for their economies, because Russia was always the unique market for French-German-Italian goods, historically so. That's where these goods were traditionally appreciated, since *Russian mind* was always concentrated on things of "cosmic proportions,* ( read fundamental science vs the applied one,) so Russian men would gladly shift the responsibility of designing the washing machines to someone else, lol. )
The post-Soviet Russia was giving the enormous opportunity for European countries to expand their economies, keeping in mind the size of potential Russian market.
BUT: in order for this to happen, Russia should have been turned into the functional and financially transparent state. Instead, we already know what happened, and if you add to this the simultaneous relocation of American industry to China, after which the Russian market became flooded with Chinese goods instead of the European ones.
"Old Europe" instead of the Russian market has been offered to "expand externally" in the newly-acquired by EU Eastern European countries, starting with the Visegrad group, but of course while it could patch up German economy, it could never substitute the loss of the Russian market with its enormous opportunities in the 90ies. Same goes for France and Italy.
Twenty years fast forward, now these countries have to look at the cooperation with China for economic growth, which is POLITICALLY not quite convenient, is it?
So that's where I see the knot yet again ( both economic and political) for Europe - going back to the same events in Russia of the 90ies.
They affected not just Russia, but European economic development too.
I think our understandings overlap on many points.
I especially appreciate this ...
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RUSSIA was that ultimate opportunity for external expansion for their economies, because Russia was always the unique market for French-German-Italian goods, historically so. ... the simultaneous relocation of American industry to China, after which the Russian market became flooded with Chinese goods instead of the European ones.
"Old Europe" instead of the Russian market has been offered to "expand externally" in the newly-acquired by EU Eastern European countries, starting with the Visegrad group, but of course while it could patch up German economy, it could never substitute the loss of the Russian market with its enormous opportunities in the 90ies. Same goes for France and Italy.
Interesting to note that the Italian banking sector is one of the most highly invested in the Russian market (along with Austria and Hungary, I believe), and so has a lot to lose with sanctions. Meanwhile, the Chinese run illegal clothing and other sweat shops in Tuscany and Lombardy, and Italy was the first and hardest hit European country by the Wuhan virus. Italy has been on a decline since the early 1990s, and, outside of Italian language media, you don’t hear a peep out of them regarding the Ukraine crisis (or Libya for that matter, where they also lost a lot). Also worth pointing out that Greece is selling some of its national infrastructure, including its biggest seaport to a Chinese government enterprise and other property to Chinese.
Globalization has few beneficiaries and many victims.
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Originally Posted by erasure
I am aware of that, yes.
The way I see it - Poland is in difficult situation as usual.
I can understand where it doesn't fit in the modern EU with Northern European countries going woke.
Because truth to be told, Polish culture comes across as a conservative one; with other words much closer to Russians. ( To be honest, I can't even point at the difference between Polish middle class and the Russian one. The STATE policies are clashing of course immensely from the medieval times, but CULTURALLY these two are pretty close. Russians overall are just stronger in character for a number of reasons.)
Normally I would think that Poland SHOULD gain from taking Western Ukraine in, except for two points;
A. While part of Western Ukrainians I am sure would be happy from being acquired, I am not sure about the Nationalist part. ( The Nazi boyz with swastikas on their arses. After all, in their drive for having "their own Ukrainian state," they are known for massacring Poles, and not just Jews during the WWII.
So I am not sure how such acquisition would play out in this respect.
B. And another unknown factor to me, is I am not sure just how much Polish economy is really dependent on EU and Germany in particular.
Because if Poland goes against increasingly woke Germany, and acquires Western Ukraine, while woke Germany wants Ukraine to remain united - it all becomes a big question.
I don't think it's even the intended consequences.
Because the intention I think was to turn Ukraine in the anti-Russian project, and to strengthen this whole anti-Russian "Polish block" - i.e. Lithuania, Baltic countries + ( potentially) Ukraine and Belorussia.
But this plan backfired. Washington miscalculated. ( They need to start firing its consultants from the Ivy league Universities, seriously. They showed their incompetency in the knowledge/understanding of the area.)
I am not sure what to say about that one at this point.
When it comes to European countries, I've said it before and I'll repeat it again.
RUSSIA was that ultimate opportunity for external expansion for their economies, because Russia was always the unique market for French-German-Italian goods, historically so. That's where these goods were traditionally appreciated, since *Russian mind* was always concentrated on things of "cosmic proportions,* ( read fundamental science vs the applied one,) so Russian men would gladly shift the responsibility of designing the washing machines to someone else, lol. )
The post-Soviet Russia was giving the enormous opportunity for European countries to expand their economies, keeping in mind the size of potential Russian market.
BUT: in order for this to happen, Russia should have been turned into the functional and financially transparent state. Instead, we already know what happened, and if you add to this the simultaneous relocation of American industry to China, after which the Russian market became flooded with Chinese goods instead of the European ones.
"Old Europe" instead of the Russian market has been offered to "expand externally" in the newly-acquired by EU Eastern European countries, starting with the Visegrad group, but of course while it could patch up German economy, it could never substitute the loss of the Russian market with its enormous opportunities in the 90ies. Same goes for France and Italy.
Twenty years fast forward, now these countries have to look at the cooperation with China for economic growth, which is POLITICALLY not quite convenient, is it?
So that's where I see the knot yet again ( both economic and political) for Europe - going back to the same events in Russia of the 90ies.
They affected not just Russia, but European economic development too.
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