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Three polls over the last few days have now shown that Obama is now either ahead or tied in a state that hasn't voted Democratic since the LBJ landslide of 1964:
• Research 2000, released today: Obama 45%, McCain 45%, compared to a 53%-40% McCain lead from mid-September, shortly before the Obama camp packed up and left.
• DFM (D), released yesterday: Obama 44%, McCain 41%, within the ±4.4% margin of error.
• Fargo Forum, released on Monday: Obama 45%, McCain 43%, within the ±4% margin of error.
As of this afternoon, Pollster.com scores the state as Obama 44.6%, McCain 42.7%.
This is a state that voted 63%-36% for President Bush in 2004, and the Obama campaign had previously given up hope here. If the Obama campaign's internal polling shows anything like this, we may see a rethinking of their decision to pull out.
No way Obama can take that state, it'll be nice if he did but that's a stretch...
Obama should still deploy resources to compete in ND. This will put pressure on McCain to spend money there and divert resources away from the true battleground states of Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, Florida, etc.
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