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Old 09-18-2008, 11:36 AM
 
Location: Came-by-Chance
1,793 posts, read 1,453,479 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Considering Gallup uses anywhere from 7-10% MORE dems than reps, obama should be up more.
He's up and will continue to climb....
RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama
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Old 09-18-2008, 11:38 AM
 
Location: Austin
4,105 posts, read 8,294,817 times
Reputation: 2134
Quote:
Originally Posted by TriMT7 View Post
Considering how Obama always magically "overpolls" vs. actual results, the race is neck and neck again.
FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect

Scroll to the bottom. You will see that on average, Obama has been voted for 1.1% higher than how he has polled.
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Old 09-18-2008, 11:40 AM
 
Location: Came-by-Chance
1,793 posts, read 1,453,479 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by luzianne View Post
Yeah, I heard that in 2004 too.
Whole different ball game this year....
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Old 09-18-2008, 11:41 AM
 
Location: Austin
4,105 posts, read 8,294,817 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by londonbarcelona View Post
Sorry - I don't listen to the pre-election polls. Especially when it concerns Obama. What scares me the most is that practically everyone knows that Obama is the right choice (for numerous reasons, not just political) yet I would bet that there are people who "say" they are going to vote for Obama, but when it comes right down to it, they won't. Why? Because he's a black man.

Obviously since I actively campaign for Obama, I would like to see him in the White House as President. However, I think it's going to come down to color more than issues. Sad - but true. I understand it's a politically incorrect thing to discuss, but without letting people voice their fears, how can we help them overcome them and realize that just because Obama is black, he is not going to make us pay reparations? Hell, us whities will be the minority soon. It's amazing how many people just cannot get past the color of his skin. It's so 1950.
I don't think it's his color that is the issue, I think it's the fact that he isn't an Uncle Tom. I think a lot of people who you suspect to be racist would vote for Condi without a problem, but put someone in front of them who cares about issues in the black community and you will see them run for the hills.
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Old 09-18-2008, 11:42 AM
 
2,039 posts, read 6,325,884 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TriMT7 View Post
#1, Obama wouldn't even be in the running if he weren't black.

Can't complain about it when it works against you, AND use it to your advantage at the same time.

WHY NOT??? It's a complicated issue.

#2... I talked about this the other day. "Whites" aren't becoming a minority. European ethnicity whites will be a plurality for a long long time, and when Hispanic whites (if you're really from Barcelona, you should be a little more educated on this issue of Hispanicism) are added in, the numbers are even higher.

Could you please post a link to that information? The current information I have read says that sometime around 2042. Here's the link : US set for dramatic change. It's dated August 15, 2008. It's the most recent I could find.
LOL, I'm not from Barcelona. Nor London....

Besides, I'm about tired of "whites" being blamed for not voting for a black guy. The ONLY people I know that have ADMITTED they won't vote for a black man is a "Hispanic" girl, and a Chinese girl.
I rest my case, it appears (which leaves it open that you may possibly prove me wrong on this issue) to me that you fall into the group of which I was speaking about.

Last edited by londonbarcelona; 09-18-2008 at 11:49 AM.. Reason: added date
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Old 09-18-2008, 11:44 AM
 
Location: Imaginary Figment
11,449 posts, read 14,476,711 times
Reputation: 4777
Quote:
Originally Posted by luzianne View Post
I think it's funny that when Obama's behind in the polls, you Dems say the polls don't matter and aren't accurate. And when he's ahead you get giddy.

Pot, kettle, black.

The bounce is over.

Let her speak more, that's what I say.
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Old 09-18-2008, 11:47 AM
 
2,039 posts, read 6,325,884 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cousinsal View Post
Yes, indeedy, it certainly is. They're all out in force this time, and have been working at it for months and months.
I hope so. However, in years past, it is true that America's youth are notorious for NOT voting! My 17 year old daughter who is a student at the University of Miami, is going to watch Obama speak tomorrow. She is very excited to vote this year because she will turn 18 before Nov. I will drag her to the polls if I have to. She can vote for whomever she chooses, but I will be da*ned if she doesn't use this opportunity to vote.

I've worked voter polls for years, and other than the last presidential election, I witnessed mostly white haired people voting. The last presidential election there were more youth.

I hope the trend continues.
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Old 09-18-2008, 11:53 AM
 
Location: Wantagh NY
690 posts, read 1,016,149 times
Reputation: 142
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
The more Palin gets out there, the better. People still don't know enough about her, what with all the smears and lies out there.

We don't agree very often Sanrene, but on this one, I am behind you 110%!

I want her on every channel being asked both easy and hard questions from regular voters. The more we here, the less she is actually saying. The more her stupidity shows through. Yesterday she was asked to state her foreign experience so that she could finally put the issue to rest....what did she do? Yup, she did the dance with lines like "I will be ready"!
And while I certainly don't agree with people getting into her e-mail...the fact she use a Yahoo! e-mail account for official business is just plain...stupid!

So yes, the more she gets out there, the better!
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Old 09-18-2008, 11:56 AM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,325 posts, read 44,981,416 times
Reputation: 7118
FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect

Why does 538 have McCain projected to win with 280 EC? I've heard some not so good things about this group.
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Old 09-18-2008, 11:58 AM
 
2,039 posts, read 6,325,884 times
Reputation: 581
Quote:
Originally Posted by luzianne View Post
I really don't think that's true. Maybe it is for the population 60+, but even there I know lots of people who truly would not be biased based on skin color. For people younger than 60, I think for MOST, race is not a factor. I my case I am not voting for Obama, but it has nothing to do with his race. I would gladly vote for Condi Rice. I WISH she were on the Republican ticket somewhere. But Obama is TOO liberal, too socialist. That's the reason I'm not voting for him.
Great answer, it's nice to hear that. Props to you.
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