What Pollsters Have Changed Since 2016 — And What Still Worries Them About 2020

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by Vector1

First I never used anything close to a left wing conspiracy, but that does not change the fact that at lest since the Reagan/Carter presidential race in 1980, every poll always shows the Democrat ahead or even crushing the Republican.
Worse, in some cases it makes it look like a landslide against the Republican, even when the Republican winds up with a landslide victory against the Democrat.
That is exactly what happened in 1980.

So how do you account for polls always seeming to favor either liberal/leftist ideology, even up to this last election in 2016 where Hillary and Brexit polls were totally wrong.

`

This is obviously false, and if you had taken the time to do any research at all, you would know it was false.

One reason the polls seem to have the Democrats up a lot is that Democrats have won every popular vote except one since 1990.

[censusdata]

From my experience for White people ancestry matters a lot politically. People with mostly pre 1776 British / German / Dutch ancestry are very Republican, Whites with more recent immigrant roots are more 50/50 or lean Democrat.

[Eeko156]

Originally Posted by legalsea

OP, I found the information very...informative. I take a lot of interest in how polls are done, especially with the rise of cell phones since 2008 or so, with many making it their only phone, versus the landline phone which remains the choice of seniors.

I had wondered about that exact same thing. Also, I never understood why the vote had been underestimated for the non-college educated folks. The majority of Americans do not have a college degree.

[WrongStreet]

Originally Posted by Eeko156

I had wondered about that exact same thing. Also, I never understood why the vote had been underestimated for the non-college educated folks. The majority of Americans do not have a college degree.

I think it was specifically white people with no college degree that were the under sampled demographic.

It's true the majority of Americans don't have degrees, but apparently the proportion of white people without degrees was under sampled in 2016 and they skewed heavily for Trump. At least that's what many pundits claim the polling error was derived from in PA, WI, and MI.

[Ariadne22]

Originally Posted by censusdata

From my experience for White people ancestry matters a lot politically. People with mostly pre 1776 British / German / Dutch ancestry are very Republican, Whites with more recent immigrant roots are more 50/50 or lean Democrat.

This is me. Maternal grandparents immigrated from Croatia in 1908-1910, paternal great-grandparents from Germany in the 1800's. My mother (parents from Croatia) was born here, died when I was very small. In my young years I tended Republican. My father, a super-intelligent, very well read man was always a Democrat - we had huge fights. As I aged, I began to see his wisdom. Now I vote Dem but not enthusiastically - do not like the left-wing of the party (SJW, BLM) or a liberal immigration policy. But GOP policies on tax-cuts, ballooning to debt/deficit to fund same is HUGE w/me, threatening ultimately SS and Medicare and leaving us today in a poor place to deal with economic fallout from COVID, stupid abortion fanaticism, climate, ignorance and refusal to find a solution to the health care public option issues.....the list is long. I am not a liberal, but there is very little in GOP policies I align with currently.